2021 Season Win Projections: Group of 5
The Group of 5 season 1,000 times. How does everyone do?
Last week, we simulated the 2021 season 1,000 times and examined how the power 5 conferences shaped out. If you missed that, you can check it out here! This week we will be looking at the group of 5 conferences, as well as FBS Independents BYU, Liberty and Army. Just as a quick reminder on how we get to these win projections:
Use an ELO rating system to get team strength ratings for each team
Calculate the probability one team would beat another team based on those ratings
Simulate that 1,000 times
There you have it! It should be noted again that because its still very early in the offseason, rosters can still be shaken up due to transfers, injuries, or other unforeseen circumstances. So for now, think of these as baseline expectations. After the summer we will revisit these projections and adjust them accordingly. Without further ado, lets get started!
American Athletic
Lets start with the self proclaimed power 6 conference, the American Athletic. After an impressive top 10 season, Cincinnati remains the team to beat in the AAC. Cincinnati returns potential star draft prospect QB Desmond Ridder, but they lost defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman to Notre Dame. Freeman led the Bearcats to the 6th ranked defense per Bill Connelly’s SP+ rating. Despite signs of regression, the Bearcats seemed poised for another great season.
Meanwhile, the Gus Bus has arrived in Orlando! UCF finished 7th in offensive SP+, and Dillion Gabriel is looking to take another giant leap forward in his 3rd year. Can Gus Malzhan keep the momentum going? The biggest wildcard in this group is the team that isn’t even in the conference…. Army! HC Jeff Monken led the Black Knights to a 9 win season last year, which is always impressive as a triple option team. There is a lot of unpredictability given the style of play, but at 74% chance to reach 6 wins, it seems like a safe bet that Army will be playing in a bowl game come December.
Mountain West
We’re heading out west to the Mountain West conference (and BYU). Boise State lost HC Bryan Harsin to Auburn, so they will be breaking in a new coaching staff. ESPN FPI rankings were not kind to the Broncos (or group of 5 teams in general), as they debuted #78 in the nation in FPI. Despite the lack of optimism floating around the program, they should still be a relatively safe bet to reach 6 wins.
The only team ranked higher in FPI in the MWC is the Nevada Wolfpack. Expectations are sky high for Nevada, who are looking to win their first ever Mountain West title. Reigning MWC champions San José State may be in for a bit of regression this season, after an improbable 7-1 championship season. Nobody wants to hear about their team getting hit by regression, but a 66% chance to reach bowl eligibility for a team that only achieved that 4 times in the 2010’s is still a great season.
For BYU, they have the tall task of replacing the number 2 overall pick in the draft, QB Zach Wilson. BYU has the luxury of a softer schedule (84th ranked strength of schedule per FPI), and should still be a lock for 6+ wins, but this seems like one of the times where expectations should be lowered from the baseline.
MACtion!
Its everyones favorite mid week football conference, the Mid-American Conference! In 2020 Ball State edged out Buffalo to win the conference, and they are the presumed 1-2 favorite in 2021. The conference is relatively wide open compared to other G5 and P5 conferences, so make you’re tuned into those weekday contests!
Perhaps underrated by my baseline model, Toledo is poised to have a good season per ESPN’s FPI. They have the Rockets a 99.5% chance to reach 6+ wins, while my model has them at an 85% chance. Another potential conference champ contender, the Central Michigan Chippewas! After a 1-11 in 2018, former UF head coach Jim McElwain immediately turned them in to an 8 win conference contender. The offense has gone from 130th in SP+ rating in 2018, to 80th in 2019 and 86th in a shortened 2020. If they can take one more step forward, watch out for the Chippewas!
Fun Belt
I realize that not everyone has the time nor the enthusiasm to spend parts of their weekend watching Group of 5 football. But you’re doing yourself a disservice if you don’t watch the Chanticleers of Coastal Carolina. Under HC Jamey Chadwell, the Chanticleers have become a household name in College Football. They return star QB Grayson McCall, and are poised to make another magical run through the Sun Belt Conference.
Louisiana was always knocking at the door of 10+ wins. From 2011-2014 they won exactly 9 games each season. Under Billy Napier they crushed through the 9 win ceiling and have posted back to back double digit win seasons. At an 87% chance to make it 3 in a row, a clash between Louisiana and Coastal for the Sun Belt title seems inevitable. At the bottom of the ladder you have Louisiana Monroe, who can be summed up by one graphic made to welcome their new HC…. Terry Bowden….
Conference USA
Last but certainly not least, its Conference USA! Despite being the favorite to win the conference all year last year, Marshall was upset in the championship game by UAB. ESPN’s FPI has Marshall regressing a bit in 2021, so this conference is going to be wide open in a race to take down the defending champs. 7 teams in the conference have greater than a 60% chance to reach bowl eligibility and more according to my baseline simulations. As you can see once you reach 10+ wins…. those numbers take a nose dive. 1500 was the baseline rating for my ELO team strength ratings, so you can see a good number of teams in this conference are below that baseline. This conference might not be the most talented nationally, but you’re going to get some close, intense football games down the stretch.
Conclusion
There we have it! The power 5 and the group of 5 seasons simulated 1,000 times. I’ve stressed it enough but I will do it once more: these should be taken more as baseline expectations! In the coming weeks players will continue to filter in and out of the transfer portal. These players might not be starting players but they influence depth or could make for an improvement to another program. We still have a long summer ahead of us, but this is a great place to start in what hopes to be a normal 2021 CFB season!
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