My perception of the week could be skewed because my team was on a bye week, but it felt like a little bit of a down week in College Football. However, even in a down week there are still PLENTY of storylines to talk about. Let’s dive into the notable games of the week.
*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
Clemson - Syracuse
In the battle of the unbeaten in the ACC, Clemson prevails over Syracuse. The biggest headline was DJ Uiagalelei being benched for 5 star freshman Cade Klubnik. It was a rough day for Uiagalelei, who looked more like his 2021 self. The biggest mistake being a fumble close to the goal line that was taken back for a Syracuse touchdown:
In the end, Will Shipley and the Clemson running game put away the Orangemen. They are on a bye before taking on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on November 5th.
Ohio State - Iowa
There is only one storyline here and its been the story of the Iowa for the past two seasons. Head Coach Kirk Ferentz hired his son to be the offensive coordinator, and they are one of the worst offensives in the FBS. Their offensive EPA/Play and other advanced metrics are hanging around teams that have already made coaching changes, or are just perennial bottom dwellers in the FBS. The defense is asked to do herculean type tasks, and honestly a ~80th percentile EPA/Play performance for the Ohio State offense should be seen as a good effort from the Iowa defense. Until Ferentz makes the necessary change, the Hawkeyes will be wasting a pretty good defense each and every week.
LSU - Ole Miss
After an early season loss to FSU in the national spotlight, we sort of put LSU on the back burner figuring it would be a typical year one type season. Well, its now the end of October and LSU is 6-2 after curb stomping the previously unbeaten Ole Miss, and they are tied with Alabama atop the SEC West. QB Jayden Daniels finished the game with 369 yards, 5 TD’s, and a 85.4 QBR. LSU is rolling in what was thought to be a rebuilding year. They still control their destiny in the conference. Brian Kelly has this team contender sooner than most of us thought, which means they’re a team to watch in the next couple of seasons.
Oregon - UCLA
This was the second test for UCLA before we starting a serious discussions about the Bruins. Unfortunately, they were outmatched as Oregon handled their business against UCLA. Ducks QB Bo Nix had the performance of the week, finishing with 283 passing yards, 5 TD’s and the nation best 96.3 QBR. On the season, Bo Nix is currently 6th in the country with a 88.3 QBR. The Ducks were cast off after getting destroyed by Georgia in week 1, but they have rebounded and are looking dangerous heading into November. It remains to be seen how the playoff committee will handle Oregon and their early season blowout loss.
Texas - Oklahoma State
Speaking of the playoff committee, they take a sigh of relief as they don’t have to deal with a two loss Texas team who did not have their starting QB in those losses. Texas loses to Oklahoma State on the road to fall out of Big 12 contention. Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers had a frustrating day, finishing with a 38.8% completion percentage (19-49, 319 yards, 2 TD’s, 3 INTs, 47.0 QBR). A majority of those were overthrows or just poor throws on Ewers part. He is only a freshman, so things like this are expected to happen from time to time. As for Oklahoma State, they remain tied for 2nd in the Big 12, trailing only TCU.
TCU - Kansas State
Speaking of which, TCU survives a scare against a Kansas State team that lost their starting QB (Adrian Martinez) early in this contest. Backup QB Will Howard put up a 90.3 QBR in place of the injured Martinez, which was one of the highest QBRs of the week. Hats off to him for a valiant performance in uneasy circumstances. As for TCU, they remain unbeaten in both Big 12 play and on the season. WR Quentin Johnson is SHOOTING up the draft boards, and the horned frogs are firmly in the playoff conversation.
South Carolina - Texas A&M
This game was set with the backdrop of the South Carolina state fair, which was pretty dang cool in my opinion. With that in mind, the Gamecocks move to 5-2 on the season after taking down the fighting Jimbo’s. For a team that has to punch above their weight class almost every week, South Carolina has a legitimate chance to move to 7-2 after games against Missouri and Vanderbilt. That is a heck of a job by Head Coach Shane Beamer and the rest of the staff. As for the Aggies… Jimbo Fisher has an $86 million buyout at the end of this season. The TAMU administration threw all caution to the wind and signed one of the most bizarre contracts in sports history. They are 3-4, and have to beat 3 of the following teams to make a bowl: Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU, UMass… oof!
Miami - Duke
We will end on two back to back oofs. Miami drops yet another game at home, this time to a Duke team that has far exceeded expectations this season. This game was not on regular TV, you needed a premium subscription package to watch this one. Miami is down bad. Mario Cristobal has always been known as an elite recruiter, but his on field coaching/decisions have always been questionable. The latter appears to be evident, and we will see what happens in the offseason with the former. As the head man says every week: back to work!
Power 5 QB Play
Group of 5 QB Play
If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!
If you want to see more charts and one off analysis, follow my twitter page, @CFBNumbers
I'm rather confused by the post game win expectancy for A&M and South Carolina. If it's based off of advanced stats and A&M "won" all but one of the advanced stats listed there, why is the PGWE so heavily in favor of South Carolina? Bill Connelly's for example was 40.1% for South Carolina for this game, less than half of what you list here. I don't know if he has access to more or better data than what is publicly available through cfbfastR and CFB_Data, but even without glancing at his numbers I was having some alarm bells go off here.