2022 College Football Advanced Stats Recap: Week 2
I am very happy my team was on a bye week!
I think if there is one word to describe the week 2 college football season, its “frustrating”. If your team was a favorite going into this game, there is a very good chance they either struggled or outright lost. It seems like at numerous points in the day, someone who was expected to win was trailing or struggling to put away their opponent. Let’s dive into it and see who survived a classic college football week.
*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
*Other Note* As is usually the case, the underlaying data may have some early season hiccups which will hopefully be updated in the future. It stinks, but we have to work with what we got!
Louisville - UCF
First up, a Friday contest between the Cardinals and Citronauts. Louisville came in looking to get something going after losing their opener to Syracuse. UCF was able to run Louisville, but the passing game ended up losing over half a point of EPA per dropback. Malik Cunningham finished 201 Passing yards and 121 Rushing yards, which led both teams. A nice bounce back game for the Cardinals, who host the FSU Seminoles in their home opener this Friday.
Alabama - Texas
Alabama came into this game as a 3 TD favorite, so it felt more like a “big brands but not big teams” matchup. What we got, however, was a game loaded with excitement and Texas almost coming away with the massive upset. Former number 1 recruit Quinn Ewers started the game with a highly efficient 0.62 EPA/Play, but was unfortunately knocked out of the game with a shoulder issue (It really happened again, Longhorn fans).
Texas defense was able to hold the Crimson Tide to essentially 0 points added per play, a frustratingly low total for a normally hyper efficient Crimson Tide offense. Unfortunately, a couple of missed opportunities and FG’s weren’t enough for the Longhorns. They win the post game win expectancy battle, but Bama wins the game.
Appalachian State - Texas A&M
WE HAVE AN UPSET! (Will spare Michigan fans from the obvious reference here). Appalachian State goes into College Station and upsets the 6th ranked Aggies. It wasn’t exactly pretty by the standards of EPA, but the Mountaineers still get the job done.
For Texas A&M, 97 passing yards. -0.624 EPA/Pass is well into the bottom 10th percentile. With all of the talent the Aggies have brought into via recruiting, that just can’t happen. I understand a lot of that talent is underclassmen, but its year 5 into the Jimbo Fisher era. This is an issue!
Notre Dame - Marshall
While we’re on the topic of issues, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 0-2 after an upset loss at the hands of Marshall. Hats off to the Thunder Herd, especially transfer RB Khalan Laborn. He finished with 163 YDS and 1 TD in the win over the Irish. As a former Seminole, im happy to see him find some success after a disappointing run with FSU. For Notre Dame, its back to the drawing board. 17 points lost to turnovers makes it extremely hard to win football games. To make matters worse, it appears Tyler Buckner is now lost for the season with an injury. The honeymoon phase is over for Marcus Freeman, its time to start winning.
Tennessee - Pittsburgh
Another thrilling contest between Tennessee and Pittsburgh. This time its Tennessee getting the overtime victory against the Panthers. Hendon Hooker and the Josh Huepel “Go Deep” offense produces another efficient outing. A -0.109 EPA/Pass outing for Pitt is the least of their problems, as both Kedon Slovis and Nick Patti were injured in this contest.
Iowa - Iowa State
The Iowa Hawkeye method of winning without a competent offense has come up short this week. The Cyclones get the better of the Iowa Hawkeyes, winning this ugly defensive slugfest. That is now two straight games that Iowa’s offense averaged -0.50+ EPA/Play. Its hard enough to win in college football, nearly impossible to be consistent when you self handicap yourself on the most important side of the ball.
Houston - Texas Tech
Another upset on the week! Some thought Houston could be this year’s version of 2021 Cincinnati, but Donovan Smith and the Red Raiders had other plans. While it wasn’t very pretty offensively, this is a massive win for HC Joey McGuire. Donovan Smith wasn’t perfect by any means, but he did show flashes at the Texas Tech QB. It will be interesting to see how he develops as the Red Raiders try to replicate air raid offenses of the past.
Florida - Kentucky
Coming off an electrifying top ten victory against Utah, Florida was riding high with star in the making QB Anthony Richardson. Game two against rival Kentucky… did not go as planned. Richardson finished with a -0.75 EPA/Play, including a painful pick six. Everyone eventually has a bad game, so this isn’t dooming Anthony Richardson. However, with a limited sample size thus far, we need to continue monitoring him to see if he can gain some consistency.
Will Levis wasn’t exactly thrilling on the other side, averaging -0.1 EPA/Play. If you were looking for a breakout game from a potential QB3 in this years draft, this sadly was not the game. Still, plenty of season left for both of these QB’s.
Baylor - BYU
Sort of the theme this week was offenses hovering around the 0 EPA/Play mark. However, this was a great win for BYU against a Big 12 contender in Baylor. Averaging 0.193 EPA/Pass against a Dave Aranda defense is exactly what you’d pray for going into this game. Hats off to Jaren Hall and the rest of the Cougars team on a win against a top ten opponent.
USC - Stanford
To end it off, we go to an offense that certainly did NOT struggle this week. Lincoln Riley and the USC Trojans has no issue dispatching Stanford. Trojan QB Caleb Williams continues to impress, connecting Jordan Addison for 7 receptions, 172 Yards, and 2 TD’s. Get use to hearing “Williams to Addison”, because you’re going to here a lot more of that this season. Williams finished the game with a 0.5 EPA/Play, which is right around the 90th percentile.
QB Play: Power 5
QB Play: Group of 5
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Thumbnail: Tim Warner/Getty Images