2022 College Football Advanced Stats Recap: Week 3

Recapping some of the notable games of the week through numbers!

There aren’t too many 100% certainties in life. However, with victories in week 3, we are guaranteed to have either a 4-0 Kansas or 4-0 Duke Football team. It was another fantastic week of college football, lets take a look back through the data to see what we have learned!

*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.

Florida State - Louisville

Florida State lost their star QB Jordan Travis, starting OL Robert Scott, and star DE transfer Jared Verse among other injuries. It had looked like all hope was lost, and in previous years the team would have likely folded. This years team, though, is different. The Seminoles, against all odds, come out with the victory against Louisville. Backup QB Tate Rodemaker silenced the critics and led the Seminoles to victory. He had a lot of help from the 6’7 Johnny Wilson, who finished with 149 yards and 2 TD’s. FSU is 3-0 for the first time since 2015, and as a Seminoles alum, life is pretty good!

Washington - Michigan State

The Jimmy Lake era ended pretty painfully for Washington. However, the past is long gone as the Kalen DeBoer era has ushered in some fun football for the Huskies. QB Michael Penix threw for 397 yards and 4 TD’s, which was good for an insane 1.163 EPA/Pass (100th Percentile). The Huskies were efficient on offense, have one of the most fun teams in CFB, and get to 3-0 on the season.

Arkansas - Missouri State

The internet would have shut down if a Bobby Petrino led Missouri State team came in and upset a top ten Arkansas team. Arkansas was efficient as a whole on the day, but 3 turnovers for -19.4 EPA against a FCS team is something to monitor in the future. A game that felt a little too close for comfort, but nevertheless the Razorbacks move on with the victory.

Liberty - Wake Forest

Similar to the Arkansas game, this was much closer than Wake Forest fans would have liked it to go down. To their credit, Liberty is a much stronger opponent than Missouri State, but still. Liberty was a 2 point conversion away from the upset victory. Wake Forest had a couple victories last season where they lost the postgame expectancy battle. It seems that has become a pattern, and something that may be cause for concern for the Demon Deacons. Still, a W is a W!

Florida - South Florida

One more for the “We won, but I am not very happy” crowd. Florida escapes a scare against South Florida at home. USF was driving on the last drive, but a bad snap gave them worse field position for the FG. The ensuing FG attempt had a bad snap, but still almost went in to tie the game. Florida QB Anthony Richardson came into the season with lofty expectations, but so far has not lived up to them in the least bit. Lot of season left, but we need to see something from the young and uber talented signal caller.

Auburn - Penn State

The speed of the Big Ten was just too much for the poor SEC, as Penn State clobbers Auburn. The Nittany Lions sweep the advanced stats box score, move to 3-0, and are now ranked in the top ten. Of course, for Penn State fans it feels like its Ohio State or bust as usual. For Auburn, its just a matter of when they fire Bryan Harsin at this point. He needed to convincingly win games this year, and that is just not going to happen. The fit was always weird, and the clock is speeding towards zero.

Appalachian State - Troy

ESPN’s College Gameday went to Boone, North Carolina for this game, and boy did it not disappoint. Troy held their own in this game, and were actually going to win the game. Of course, that was before a miracle Hail Merry attempt that was caught on a deflection and ran in for the game winning touchdown. The play gave the Mountaineers 90% win probability added, and more importantly the victory. Good things happen when Gameday goes to unique places.

Oregon - BYU

A lot of people wrote Oregon off after their opening game loss to the behemoth Georgia. That of course was a mistake, but Oregon is still good! They may not be in the upper echelon, but they are still a good football team. We got a good Bo Nix game, and they take down a 12th ranked BYU team. The Ducks are still very much alive the Pac-12/NY6 bowl race.

Kansas - Houston

If you haven’t already before, you need to tell your friends and loved ones about a 3-0 fun Kansas football team. Kansas is highly efficient on offense, runs a variation of a triple option from the shotgun, and is addicted to scoring points. Houston came into this season with really high expectations, especially on the defensive side of the ball. They get clobbered by the Jayhawks, who have new life under HC Lance Leipold.

Miami - TAMU

To end the recap, we go to College Station. It should be noted that the EP lost to turnovers is just passes and rushes, which is why the muffed Miami punt was not included. That muffed punt ended up being a huge difference in the game, as Texas A&M rebounds from the Appalachian State lost with a victory over a ranked Canes team.

Mario Cristobal is an excellent recruiter. The knock on him is in game management, and that was a fear coming into his tenure with Miami. A 3rd and goal run leading to a 4th and goal FG, along with another red zone FG has those in game management fears coming to life. Mario coached to lose a close game as opposed to winning the game. In that sense, they accomplished what they were trying to do. The good news is those type of issues can be ironed out relatively quickly. The bad news: its been like this since Oregon, which means it doesn’t seem like he is receptive to change.

Power 5 QB Play

Group of 5 QB Play

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