2022 College Football Advanced Stats Recap: Week 6

Six Weeks in the books... what have we learned?

We have officially reached the halfway-ish point of the college football regular season. Which is crazy because it feels like it started last week! So many crazy stories have come from the first half of the season, and it is time to have some discussions about some teams. Let’s dive in!

*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.

Ohio State - Michigan State

Ohio State doesn’t get much attention from the newsletter because they pretty much just demolish everyone. The victim this week was the Michigan State Spartans, who fall to 2-4 on the season. Michigan State coming into this season was expected to regress a little from their surprise Peach Bowl appearance/win last season. But at a preseason win total of 7.5 and a 96% probability to win 6+ games (ESPN FPI), the fall off was not expected to be this bad. The Spartans will have to dig deep to not suffer a bowl less season after a New Year’s Six bowl win.

Clemson - Boston College

The Red Bandana Game for Boston College is a really special one. It is a game that commemorates hero Welles Crowther, former BC mens lacrosse player who tragically lost his life in the 9/11 attacks while attempting to rescue other victims. Unfortunately, the Eagles were not able to pull out the victory against Clemson. For Clemson, they remain undefeated on the season. QB DJ Uiagalelei didn’t really have a great game, only a 54.2 QBR and a -0.009 EPA/Play, but a win is a win and he still looks much better than he did last season. Clemson is a legit playoff contender if Uiagalelei can remain a positive and not a negative.

Tennessee - LSU

When Josh Heupel came to Knoxville, I think people wondered if his high tempo, everyone go deep offense would be able to work in the SEC. Well, the Volunteers rank 10th in EPA/Pass on the season, and are still unbeaten after beating down LSU. Hendon Hooker finished with 239 passing yards, 2 TD’s and a 92.2 QBR. He is playing like one of the top QB’s in the country. The combination of an explosive offense and an elite QB can give teams fits, and it may even lead to an upset scare. Let’s see who Tennessee plays next…. The Alabama Crimson Tide.

UCLA - Utah

Last week, we said that it was time to at least take a peak at what the Bruins were doing this season. They have a two game test against some of the top talent in the Pac-12. Well, they passed the first test with flying colors, beating Utah to remain undefeated on the season. Dorian Thompson Robinson and the UCLA offense rank 14th in EPA/Pass, 9th in success rate, and DTR himself ranks 6th in the country in QBR. If they can get past Oregon next week, they might just find themselves undefeated when they square up on November 19th against the neighbors down the street.

Alabama - Texas A&M

Texas A&M had one final shot to gain yet another upset win over the Crimson Tide. The Tide did not have their Heisman QB, and you’ve hung with them until the end. One final play on the 2 yard line. What would you call in this situation? Maybe a pick play if you see they are in man coverage, or maybe you get crazy and call some delayed draw run play. Or… you can throw a hitch route short of the endzone, where your WR has next to no chance to both catch the ball and turn around and shed a tackle on his way to the endzone. That’s about all you need to know, the Tide roll on.

Kansas - TCU

Despite falling short in the end, Kansas and Lawrence put on an incredible show for College Gameday. Star Jayhawk QB Jalon Daniels was injured early in this game, but backup Jason Bean came in and delivered an impressive 0.385 EPA/Play performance. Ultimately, Max Duggan and the Horned Frogs were too much for Kansas. TCU heads to 5-0 on the season and is keeping pace in the Big 12 race. For Kansas, they get a rebound team against a team in an absolute down spiral…

Oklahoma - Texas

For as long as I have been alive (1996) this just does not happen to Oklahoma. They were utterly embarrassed by their rival Texas Longhorns, who controlled from the very start of the game. Now, Dillon Gabriel was not available for the Sooners, but that doesn’t excuse the defense allowing a successful play over half of the time. For Texas, your star QB just put up a 4 TD, 92.3 QBR against your rival. Life is probably pretty good right now! Texas has two losses on the year: one to Alabama without their starting QB for most of the contest, and an OT loss to Texas Tech, also without their starting QB. Suppose the Longhorns run the table, dominate the rest of their schedule and end as a 2 loss conference champion… what happens?

North Carolina - Miami

North Carolina goes on the road and knocks down an already down Miami Hurricanes team. North Carolina has the 3rd ranked pass attack based on EPA/Play, and Drake Maye is the 2nd best QB on the country according to QBR. While there are definitely questions on defense (112th in EPA/Pass allowed), the Tarheels are 5-1 and look to be the team to beat in the ACC Coastal. They still have games against Wake Forest and NC State left, so we may need to table them and see what they look like in November.

Florida State - NC State

Both teams were coming off losses from the previous week, and were looking to bounce back. Florida State had an opportunity to win late, but an untimely pick ended all hopes of a bounce back win. The NC State defense did not allow a single point in the second half, and despite losing star QB Devin Leary to injury, they were still able to pull off the victory. For Mike Norvell and FSU, 5-1 heading into Clemson would have been nice! But now you’re staring at the possibility of 3 straight losses, and an even slimmer chance of a 8 win season that can be a momentum turner for the program.

Washington - Arizona State

Washington was entering the game looking to bounce back after a loss to UCLA. Washington has a top 10 passing offense according to advanced metrics (EPA, Success rate etc.) and Arizona State had a bottom 10 passing defense. On paper, it looked like a bounce back for Michael Penix and the Huskies. One 55.2 QBR performance later, and the Huskies drop their second straight game. Washington is still on pace to get right around their 7.5 preseason win total, but it definitely feels like a little air has come out of the Huskies sails lately.

Power 5 QB Play

Group of 5 QB Play

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