2022 College Football Advanced Stats Recap: Week 9
Its November! Time for the Meat and Potatoes of CFB!
October has come and gone, and hopefully you’re enjoying some of that sweet post halloween candy. We now turn our calendars to November, the meat and potatoes of the college football season. If you haven’t heard the “P word” yet, you will start to this week, because the College Football Playoff rankings release TONIGHT.
Regardless of your feelings towards the playoff, the rankings also give us an indication of where the committees heads are at when it comes to things like New Year’s Six bowl games, and who has the inside track to being the highest ranked group of 5 team. If 1 to 4 don’t interest you, thats okay! there are still plenty of storylines in the 5 to 25 range. But before we get to that, we have a week to recap.
*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
Ohio State - Penn State
You just can’t turn the ball over that many times against Ohio State and expect to win. Losing 22 expected points on turnovers was the dagger for Penn State, as they drop this game against the Buckeyes. Ohio State was sluggish until the 4th quarter, when they exploded for 28 points. They remain undefeated on the season and should be fine until the big game and the end of the month. As for the Nittany lions… Sean Clifford finished with a 63.6 QBR, and hes 36th in QBR on the season. High floor low ceiling QB’s are good for some programs, but when you’re looking to take that next step up, its just not going to cut it. Will see if it is finally Drew Allar time in Happy Valley.
Kentucky - Tennessee
Following in the ranked conference matchups, Tennessee has no problem putting away Kentucky to remain undefeated on the season. QB Hendon Hooker finished with 3 TD’s and a 89.9 QBR, and is now the favorite to win the Heisman trophy (according to Draftkings Sportsbook). The other QB, Will Levis, finished 98 total passing yards, 3 INTs, and a 16.4 QBR. Injuries has undoubtedly hampered Levis ability to play this year, but you’d still expect more from a guy that continues to garner first round in the NFL draft consideration. Levis was sacked 4 times this game, and in total his EPA lost to Sacks ranks 115/126 qualifying QB’s (ESPNs QBR). The good news is Kentucky will get Missouri and Vanderbilt before facing their final test in Georgia, while the Volunteers play the top ranked Bulldogs next in a battle for the crown of CFB.
Kansas State - Oklahoma State
The biggest surprise of the day came from Kansas State destroying a top ten ranked Oklahoma State team. Kansas State was without their starting QB, Adrian Martinez, but Will Howard has made most of his time on the field in Martinez absence. He threw for 296 yards and 4 TD’s en route to a 92.1 QBR, one of the highest QBRs this week. He doesn’t have a QBR ranking because his snap count is too low, but his 92.1 season QBR is exactly the same as Heisman frontrunner Hendon Hooker. Kansas State is now in the 2nd position behind TCU in the Big 12 race as Texas comes to town.
Wake Forest - Louisville
The other massive surprise was Wake Forest melting down against the Louisville Cardinals. It was 14-13 Wake Forest at half time, but then they went out and had 8! turnovers in the second half. Their 44 expected points lost to turnovers is far and away the most lost this season, with the next closest being UTEP losing ~31 EP in week 3 to New Mexico. That was basically the story of the game, Louisville wasn't amazing on offense, but you really don’t need to be when your defense forces 8 turnovers. Wake is still in the hunt for a potential NY6 bowl, but shell shocked is a good phrase for the Demon Deacons.
UCF - Cincinnati
The battle for the top spot in the Group of 5 and the NY6 Bowl berth is most likely going to come down to the AAC teams of Tulane (idle this week) and the winner of this game. Despite losing their starting QB John Rhys Plumlee to injury, the Citronauts of Central Florida came out victorious against the Cincinnati Bearcats. Backup QB Mikey Keene finished with a 94.7 QBR, which was among the highest QBR’s among G5 QB’s this season. UCF takes on Memphis next week while Tulane has Tulsa this week. After that, its the Green Wave vs. the ‘Nauts.
The Worlds Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
I guess I should mention the outcome of the Worlds Largest Outdoor Cocktail party, even though it wasn’t much a contest for Georgia. The 3 turnovers and 12 EP lost to turnovers didn’t stop Georgia from cruising to the finish. It will be interesting to see whether the playoff committee ranks Georgia number 1, or do they give the electric Volunteers of Tennessee the nod at the top. Regardless of the number next to their name, they play next week.
Notre Dame - Syracuse
Notre Dame goes into the Carrier Dome (Its going by Carrier in my head), and gets the commanding victory against the Syracuse Orangemen. Syracuse is now starting to flame out after a 6-0 start with back to back losses. Notre Dame on the other hand looks to be salvaging a season many thought was lost in September. The offense is still struggling in the pass game, but the defense and run game is picking up the slack for the Irish. Games against Boston College and Navy are most likely assumed to be wins for Notre Dame, so they will look to play spoiler to Clemson and rival USC and try to unravel their seasons.
Oregon - Cal
Speaking of USC and the Pac 12, there are three teams worth looking at in the initial CFB playoff rankings. The first is Oregon, who have been on fire ever since the first week blowout loss to Georgia. QB Bo Nix is currently 6th in the nation in terms of QBR, and added more EPA than any other QB in the last 2 weeks (57.1 EPA). We will have to wait and see how the committee holds the loss to Georgia against the Ducks.
USC - Arizona
The second Pac-12 team is USC, who have only lost to Utah on the season. They handled their business against Arizona, though the Trojan defense continued to surrender points. QB Caleb Williams may very well be the best QB in the country, and could easily play his way into the a Heisman finalist position in November. If the committee decides that Oregons loss to Georgia is too much for them, expect USC to be the team waiting in the wings.
UCLA - Stanford
The final team is UCLA, who moved to 7-1 on the season with a beating of Stanford. UCLA’s only loss comes at the hands of Oregon, so it doesn’t appear the Bruins will be the highest ranked Pac-12 team. Still, they have one loss on the season, and a date with the USC Trojans later on this month. They’re still firmly in control of their destiny in the Pac-12, and are right in the NY6 discussion.
Power 5 QB Play
Group of 5 QB Play
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