2022 College Football Advanced Stats Game Recap: Appalachian State vs. North Carolina
Guest Writer Brendan Farrell takes us through a wild game with a 40 point 4th quarter!
In the midst of maybe the most chaotic opening weekend in recent memory, Appalachian State and North Carolina were a cut above the rest.
Down 41-21 heading into the final quarter of play, the Mountaineers scored 40 points in the fourth quarter. And they still lost.
An indescribably frantic fourth quarter featured 62 points, eight touchdowns, two failed two-point conversions and one onside kick that was returned for a touchdown and somehow not the final score of the game.
So, how the heck did that happen? Let’s take a look.
Here’s every play in the game plotted by Expected Points Added (EPA). All fourth-quarter plays are highlighted in yellow.
UNC’s offense certainly had its moments in the fourth quarter, including a 42-yard Drake Maye touchdown pass late in the period. The Tar Heels were firing on all cylinders all day on Saturday, though a Maye fumble in the fourth quarter (that yellow dot at the bottom of the North Carolina side of the chart) hurt.
But App State was on an entirely different level. The Mountaineers had seven plays that went 20 or more yards in the fourth quarter alone, plus another that went 19. If you only took App State’s fourth-quarter production, they would have as many 20+ yard plays as the likes of Auburn, Baylor, Fresno State, Cincinnati and Oregon State. They had 10 plays that had an EPA of at least one.
No epic comeback is complete without some heroic quarterback play. App State quarterback Chase Brice shook off some struggles through the first three quarters and came out firing in the fourth. Brice completed 25 of his 36 passes on the day for 361 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. In the fourth quarter, the Mountaineers had an otherworldly EPA per pass of 1.35. Granted, small sample size, but it was nuts to watch it last over one quarter of play.
App State produced such an electrifying 15 minutes by mixing a killer success rate with big plays. The Mountaineers were rarely behind schedule, and even a third and 20 became a fourth and 10 after a Brice scramble and then a first down after a UNC holding penalty.
But in order to score 40 points in a quarter, you have to score often and quickly. None of the App State drives lasted more than eight plays, and the Mountaineers’ final four touchdowns were all at least 25 yards out.
Despite blowing such a big lead in the fourth quarter, the Tar Heels were actually really good offensively. Since this only covers offensive and defensive plays, this doesn’t even cover the onside kick that they returned for a touchdown. If you’re producing an 0.3 EPA per play on offense over the course of an entire game, you’re most likely going to win that game, barring a defensive implosion. North Carolina actually finished the game with an even higher EPA per play (0.41, according to gameonpaper.com).
And, yeah, that’s definitely a defensive implosion by North Carolina as well. For context on that 1.02 EPA per play for the Mountaineers in the fourth quarter, Maye’s seven-yard scramble for a first down at the App State 12-yard line on a third and 3 in the third quarter had a nearly identical 1.03 EPA. For the Mountaineers to accrue that kind of production on average every play is just wild.
Even weirder is that North Carolina was doing a pretty decent job keeping App State in check through three quarters. App State scored 14 points in the first quarter, but the Mountaineers only scored seven more entering the fourth.
Hope you enjoyed this extra piece of content this week!
If you want to dive in to the data like Brendan does, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!
If you want to see more from Brendan, follow him on twitter! @BFarrell727
Thumbnail: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports