2022 CFB National Championship Advanced Stats Preview
The Big Game has arrived.. who holds the edge?
Its hard to believe this is the last college football game of the season. The National Championship has finally arrived and a champion will be crowned by the end of the night. The championship game is a repeat of the SEC Championship: The Georgia Bulldogs will take on the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Alabama got the upper hand on Georgia last game, and the Bulldogs are out for revenge and to finally break through their title drought. Repeat teams, and games for that matter, can be a turn off for some looking for excitement. However, these are two very good football teams with contrasting styles of play. Last go around Georgia QB Stetson Bennett wilting under the pressure: can he turn it around if the Bulldogs face a deficit? Can Alabama repeat their performance in the SEC Championship game and claim the title once again? One last time, let’s dive into the numbers.
Betting Overview
The betting line has floated around 2-3 points this week, with Georgia as the betting favorite in a projected 28-25 game. Compared to the semifinal games, this national championship game is expected to be a close matchup.
Round 1
Round one and the SEC Championship went to the Crimson Tide. Georgia has relied on their championship caliber defense this whole season, but it was no match for Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young and WR Jameson Williams. The biggest thing to note from this boxscore is the Expected Points lost to turnovers. Georgia lost -12.4 EP solely off turnovers, which killed any chance for them in this game.
Those turnovers, combined with sacks sunk any chance for Stetson Bennett and the Bulldogs. Compared to Bryce Young, Stetson Bennett was neck and neck in passing and rushing EPA. His success rate and explosive play rate were comparable as well, which indicates the turnovers were the primary driver of his demise. Turnovers are primarily driven by teams attempting to come back from deficits in games, which was the case in this situation. Bennett has the ability to get the job done, provided the game stays within reach. The question becomes, can the Bulldogs keep the game on their terms and avoid another game sinking hole against the Tide.
Offense vs. Defense Matchups
Bryce Young got the best of this Georgia secondary in the SEC Championship, passing for 421 yards, 3TD’s and a 98.1 QBR. Given Georgia’s flat out dominance throughout the season and playoff, I would not count on that happening again. Crimson Tide WR Jameson Williams will have a giant target on his chest for this entire game, especially with John Metchie not playing due to injury.
Alabama was able to run at will against Cincinnati in the playoff semifinal. The Tide put up 309 rushing yards, which was good for 0.21 Expected Points Per Rush. Alabama’s offensive line was able to bully Cincinnati’s defensive line the entire game, which will certainly not be the case against Georgia’s big boys up front. This side of the battle will not be a gritty trench warfare. It will be once again fought in the air - Bryce Young vs. the Georgia secondary round two.
Similar to the other matchup, it will be the QB vs. the secondary, although this time its looking for redemption. Alabama is going to do everything in their power to take away Georgia’s run game. Alabama’s weakness on defense is explosive passes, which will be something to watch if Georgia falls behind again. Last time the defense got the better of Stetson Bennett, but their season stats suggest that might not happen should the same situation occur.
Conclusion
If you’re a fan of ground and pound football, this game will probably not meet your expectations. This game is going to come down to the signal callers. Will Bryce Young be able to replicate his Heisman esc performance against and elite caliber defense? Will Stetson Bennett shake off the criticism and become a legend in Athens by delivering the Bulldogs their first national championship since 1980? We will see tonight!
As we wrap up the season, I just wanted to say thank you to each one of you that followed along with this newsletter this season. The love and support you show every week makes this newsletter one of my favorite things to do in life. I hope you all had a fun college football season, and hopefully we end the year on a high note with an exciting national championship!
If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!
If you want to see more charts and one off analysis, follow my twitter page, @CFBNumbers