2022 College Football Advanced Stats Recap: Week 1
Chaos out of the gate. Exactly what we were hoping for!
In life, some try to limit the chaos in their lives to the absolute minimum. Some, when faced with the potential for chaos, turn and run. As for college football fans? They embrace it with full enthusiasm. Chaos is exactly what we got in our first full week of college football. Let’s look back on the week with an advanced stats recap to see what we have learned so far this season.
*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
*Other Note* As is usually the case, the underlaying data may have some early season hiccups which will hopefully be updated in the future. It stinks, but we have to work with what we got!
The Backyard BRAWL
What better way to ring in week 1 than the restoration of a rivalry that took a 11 year hiatus. In the latest installment of the Backyard Brawl, its Pittsburgh getting the best of West Virginia. The play of the game was an INT that shows you why INT’s are not the greatest metric when determining QB play:
You would be hard pressed to pin that on JT Daniels, but nevertheless that play completely shifted the game into Pitts favor.
Even if you take that play out JT Daniels wasn’t great. Kedon Slovis, on the hand, had a pretty good debut for the Panthers. While it wasn’t perfect, you can definitely build off a ~75th percentile performance.
Virginia Tech - Old Dominion
Chaos started on Thursday with the Backyard Brawl, and continued into Friday with Old Dominion Virginia Tech. The game was delayed at one point because the Virginia Tech coaches were stuck in an elevator. Hokies QB Grant Wells debut didn’t go as planned, as he threw 4 INTs, including one that set up the Monarchs to score the go ahead TD, and one on the ensuing drive to seal the game. The ODU wasn’t great for a majority of the night, but got it done when they needed it most.
Iowa - South Dakota State
I think I am eventually going to do a separate article on Iowa, because there is just so much to unpack with this team. They lost over half a point per play on offense. Spencer Petras 1.1 QBR was the lowest winning QBR since 2013. They scored 7 points… 2 safeties and a field goal. But, above all, came away with the victory. The Iowa Hawkeye way of football.
Georgia - Oregon
Maybe you thought Georgia would take a step back after losing some pieces to the draft, and DC Dan Lanning to the Ducks. Nope, the Bulldogs are still loaded and the team to beat this season. They blasted Oregon and spoiled Lanning’s revenge game against his former boss. The Georgia offense had a perfect 100% series conversion rate (Rate an offense turns a 1st down into another 1st/TD) in non garbage time, which is only the 7th time that has happened between two FBS teams since 2017.
Steston Bennett gets a lot of flak despite putting up hyper efficient numbers almost every week. “Georgia wins despite Stetson Bennett” was a common calling last season. Maybe its just me, but I think he just might be a really good college QB!
NC State - ECU
This is supposed to be the year that NC State takes the next step forward and seriously contend with Clemson for the ACC Atlantic/ACC title. Game one is in the books and… it was not a pretty one for the Wolfpack. They survive a scare against ECU, who missed an extra point (MORE ON THAT LATER) and a game winning FG.
App State - North Carolina
Speaking of Carolina scares, UNC almost loses one to Appalachian State in a good ole fashioned shootout. App State didn’t convert two 2 point conversions, including one that agonizingly fell out of the receivers hands. The Tarheels are 2-0, but their defense remains a serious question mark for the team. One question that appears to be solved, however, is the QB position. If the Tarheels can just get something from their defense, they would be a sneaky to watch in the ACC.
Ohio State - Notre Dame
Ohio State and Notre Dame kicked off our first top 5 matchup of the season. Depending on the book, Ohio State was around a 17 point favorite heading into this one. The Buckeyes struggled, which should be credited to Marcus Freeman and the Notre Dame defense. QB CJ Stroud finished with a 0.136 EPA/Play, which while still efficient, was one of the low’s of Strouds stellar career. In the end the Buckeyes run game proved too strong, and they survive a bout with the Irish.
Utah - Florida
Utah came into this game as the betting favorite (around 3 points depending on when you looked), with potential playoff hopes. Enter: Gator QB Anthony Richardson. His 0.588 EPA/Play (~95th percentile) monster game was too much for the Utes. Cameron Rising and the Utes offense was rather efficient, and had a shot to win it on the Florida goal line with seconds left in the game. The Gator defense came up with a big time INT, and New HC Billy Napier gets his first big time win in game one of his tenure.
Florida State - LSU
*Had an issue with my boxscores, so this comes from GameonPaper.com, a VERY useful tool on Gamedays!"*
REMEMBER WHEN I SAID WE’D TALK ABOUT MISSED EXTRA POINTS LATER? ITS LATER!!! The Sunday primetime game saw two programs with recent titles looking to establish a new identity. Florida State held the lead for a majority of the game, and had the ball on the goal line looking to ice the game. One fumbled pitch later, and LSU has the ball. After a 99 yard drive that involved a 5 min review, LSU punches in the would be game tying TD, assuming they make the extra point. Earlier in the game, FSU blocked a FG, which proved to be foreshadowing to this moment.
It feels like there is so much more to talk about, but unfortunately Substack has a limit. A chaotic first week of CFB, and thats only 1 of 13. Buckle up ladies and gentleman!
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