2022 College Football Advanced Stats Recap: Week 4
Upsets, the purple curse, and of course: advanced stats!
Another week in the books for college football. For some, it was a joyous occasion. For others, your team lost to Middle Tennessee State and home, thus evaporating any sort of preseason hype left. Hopefully you fall into the former category because if not… its going to be a long rest of the season.
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Syracuse - Virginia
Starting off with some Friday night ACC action. Some are asking if Syracuse will play a normal game this year. The answer? We will still have to wait and see. Despite some turnovers and questionable decision making, Syracuse comes away with the victory and heads to 4-0 on the season. It wasn’t all that pretty, but 4-0 is still nonetheless 4-0
Michigan - Maryland
Due to their out of conference schedule, this was considered Michigans “B1G” first test of the year. While it was a bit dicey at times, Michigan ultimately came away with the victory. QB JJ McCarthy finished with a 0.235 EPA/Play, and a 58.1% Success Rate. Basically a textbook definition of “solid”. B1G test number two this week for the Wolverines, who take on the destroyer of offenses/fun, the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Clemson - Wake
Last season, Clemson fell to NC State in overtime. This season we almost saw a repeat, but in the end Clemson pull off the double overtime victory on the road against a good Wake Forest Team. Sam Hartman threw for 6 touchdowns, averaging a hyper efficient 0.893 EPA/Play, and still couldn’t get the victory. That is a downright scary thought. Coming into the season, the eyes were on DJ Uiagalelei and the Clemson offense and whether they could keep up with their playoff caliber defense. 5 TD’s and an 87.2 QBR for Uiagalelei later, I think we got a little bit closer to getting our answer.
Middle Tennesse State - Miami
There are always growing pains when it comes to a new coach/administration. Its an inevitable part of change. Still, this is a downright shocking upset for the Miami Hurricanes. The Canes were ~26 point favorites coming into this game, and they got flat out dominated. Tyler Van Dyke, a QB some thought could rise into the top of the draft conversation, threw multiple picks and got benched. This game was one of the worst upsets in the last 5 years of college football:
It is safe to say: the honeymoon is over for Mario Cristobal and the Miami Hurricanes.
Florida - Tennessee (QB Box Score)
Had an issue with this boxscore, apologies!
Florida ultimately fell to Tennessee, but we did get to see a little positivity from QB Anthony Richardson. If he can string together more performances like these (a long with wins), he should continue to dominate draft conversation. Speaking of draft conversation, Hendon Hooker is continuing to play his way into it. While -11 EPA lost from sacks and turnovers can be concerning, there is no denying his abilities to perform efficiently and at a high ceiling.
Arkansas - TAMU
If you want to see something that almost never happens in football games, watch the final FG attempt of this game. A bad snap on the previous play forced the FG to be a tad bit longer than it should have been. On the FG attempt the ball hits the very top of the upright, and Arkansas ends up losing the football game. You gotta feel for the Razorbacks here. As for Jimbo and the Aggies, they survive one in Jerry World, now with back to back wins against Miami and Arkansas.
Kansas State - Oklahoma
Does your football team have an opponent that just, for whatever reason, has your number? For Sooner fans, that team is Kansas State. The Wildcats upset the Oklahoma Sooners to make it 3 wins in the last 4 matchups between these two. Dillion Gabriel threw for 4 TD’s, but that wasn’t enough. Adrian Martinez had 5 total TD’s (4 rushing, 1 passing) and 382 total yards in the victory against the Sooners. Even with a new coach, Oklahoma just can’t seem to get past the purple curse.
Texas Tech - Texas
Another upset both in the rankings and in terms of postgame win probability. The Texas Tech Red Raiders get a massive in state victory against the Longhorns. This was another game where both teams were pretty efficient, but a late Bijan Robinson turnover sealed the fate for Texas. Thats two losses for the Longhorns, which means we switch to “Quinn Ewers development mode when healthy” time.
USC - Oregon State
I, along with others, were excited for this game going into it. But alas, I could not watch the game because I do not have the Pac-12 network. This game came down to the wire, but you know, nobody could watch it. This was a rare off game for star QB Caleb Williams (55.4 QBR), but the defense carried the load with 4 INTs on Chance Nolan. The Trojans remained undefeated, and while a battle with Utah still looms, the rest of their schedule might be seen as favorable for the team.
Power 5 QB Play
Group of 5 QB Play
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No post-game win expectancy for Florida - Tennessee?