2022 College Football Advanced Stats Recap: Rivalry Week

The craziest week of the season!

We have sadly arrived at the final week of the regular season for College Football. Of course for some, this is the best for last. Rivalry week can define a programs entire season, or just give fans bragging rights for the next 364 days. Teams can clinch conference championship berths or see their chances go up in flames. For the final time this regular season, let’s do a recap!

*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.

Mississippi State - Ole Miss

The Egg Bowl kickstarted rivalry week in vintage Egg Bowl fashion. Despite winning the post game win expectancy battle, Lane Kiffin and the Ole Miss Rebels fall to their rivals. The game wasn’t the prettiest offensively, and Mississippi State gave Ole Miss some chances with their 14 expected points lost to turnovers, but ultimately the Bulldogs prevail. Talks of a potential exit to Auburn may have distracted Lane Kiffin, but he is staying in Ole Miss for the time being.

NC State - North Carolina

NC State came into the season with lofty expectations that were ultimately derailed through injuries, including their star QB Devin Leary. They put it all aside on Friday and knocked off UNC in double OT. Drake Maye had a bit of an off game by his standards, finishing 29/49, 233 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT and a 63.6 QBR. North Carolina now only has one chance of making a NY6 Bowl, by beating Clemson to take the ACC championship and the Orange Bowl berth. Despite the disappointment here, the Tar Heels can still finish on an extremely high note and a championship.

Florida State - Florida

For the first time since 2017, the Florida State Seminoles have knocked off the Gators at home to get to 9-3 on the season. 83 combined points is the most ever between these two teams in this series. QB Jordan Travis had another spectacular game, finishing with 353 total yards, 3 total TD’s, and a 87.6 QBR. This game had everything: explosive plays, forced turnovers, and loads of drama. In the end, the Noles extend their winning streak to 5 straight games to end the regular season. The expectation going into the season was around 7 games, and the Noles shatter that in style.

Tulane - Cincinnati

The Tulane Green Wave are going to the AAC Championship!! They didn’t win the post game expectancy battle, but they won the game and now host the conference championship game. While it wasn’t the greatest offensive performance, QB Michael Pratt led Tulane to the go ahead TD with 5 mins left in the game. Hats off to Tulane for reaching the conference championship game, where they will face…

UCF - USF

The War on I-4 champion UCF Citronauts. UCF sped ahead to a 28-0 lead on the legs of QB John Rhys Plumlee. Plumlee unfortunately hurt his hamstring in the game, but its 28-0, they should be fine right? 3 fumbles later, USF TAKES the lead in the game. In the end, backup QB Mikey Keene leads the Citronauts offense down the field for the go ahead TD to finish the Bulls off. UCF survives and will face Tulane in the AAC championship, and potentially the Group of 5 berth in the NY6.

The Game

I can’t wait any longer. Its time for THE GAME. Everything comes down to this one game for both of these teams. For the second year in a row, Michigan flat out dominates Ohio State to win and advance to the Big Ten Championship. They straight up bullied the Buckeyes. Wolverine QB JJ McCarthy finished the game with 4 total TD’s and 92.6 QBR. Michigan did pretty much anything they wanted to do against a Buckeye defense that thought it made the necessary adjustments so this wouldn’t happen. It remains to be seen what the committee will do with Ohio State, but one thing is for certain: Columbus is down BAD.

Clemson - South Carolina

*Had an issue with my boxscore, so I used GameonPaper.com here. Highly recommend the website!

Shane Beamer and the South Carolina Gamecocks do it again! They knocked off Tennessee last week, this week its their in state rival Clemson. South Carolina lost the post game win expectancy battle 22.6% to 77.4%, but nevertheless walked away with the win. Clemson’s DJ Uiagalelei struggled heavily, as you can see by the 10th percentile on Clemson’s EPA/Dropback. HC Dabo Swinney has remained adamant that he will remain the starting QB. The Tigers are officially out of the playoff race, but can still take home the ACC if they can beat UNC.

Alabama - Auburn

I feel like I have to include the Iron bowl because…. its the Iron Bowl, but this was a rather low stakes low drama event this year. Alabama cruised to a victory, and could sneak in the playoff if chaos ensues on championship weekend. Auburn meanwhile has finalized a deal to bring in Hugh Freeze as their next head coach… ooof.

Oregon - Oregon State

At one point in this game, Oregon State was down 31-10. They had no passing game to work with, as evidenced by their -1.48 EPA/Pass. Despite all of that, the Beavers of Oregon State come back into the game and upset the Oregon Ducks, denying them an opportunity in the Pac-12 Championship game. Oregon went for it on 4th down twice in their own territory, and twice they were denied by the Beavers. Hats off to Jonathan Smith for getting this QB injury riddled Beavers squad to 9 wins on the season.

USC - Notre Dame

We end it with one of the classics of college football. In this installment of USC-Notre Dame, USC takes down the Irish and keeps their playoff dreams alive. USC’s defense pretty much lives or dies by their ability to generate turnovers, and in this game they gained 9.6 expected points off turnovers by the Irish offense. QB Caleb Williams finished with 4 total TD’s and a 97.6 QBR, and has basically wrapped up the Heisman trophy. USC will take on Utah, the only team that beat them this season, for the Pac-12 Championship and a potential CFB Playoff berth.

Power 5 QB Play

Group of 5 QB Play

If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!

If you want to see more charts and one off analysis, follow my twitter page, @CFBNumbers