I know everyone writing this week will say “I can’t believe the season is already over”, but like… where did this season go? September feels like it could have been a year ago, but also feels like it happened yesterday. As much as it stinks the season is almost over, that feeling only tells you how much fun you had the entire time. This week is mostly reserved for games before the big rivalry games, but still plenty to talk about. For the second to last time, let’s recap the week!
*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
Michigan - Illinois
This was one of the biggest tests for the Michigan offense of the season. Illinois defense has been legit all season, and there are always talks of perhaps looking ahead to the next week and The Game. It came down to a game winning FG, but nevertheless the Wolverines remain undefeated on the season, and head to Columbus for the game of the season.
Ohio State - Maryland
The other part of The Game also had some rough waters to navigate, but in the end the Buckeyes also remain undefeated on the season. RB Dallan Hayden had a monster game for the Buckeyes, rushing for 146 yards and 3 scores. On the other side, Taulia Tagovailoa posted a 91.3 QBR, but it wasn’t enough to take down Ohio State. The Game has now been set: Undefeated Ohio State vs. undefeated Michigan.
Georgia - Kentucky
Not the greatest moment for the Georgia offense this season, but at this point in the season a win is a win. According to ESPN’s FPI, Georgia has a 97.4% chance to reach the playoff. While a SEC championship is still a major accomplishment, it would appear the Bulldogs are #IN. As for Kentucky, this was QB Will Levis last opportunity to show the world what he can do against a tough defense. He finished the game with a 0.079 EPA/Play, which just isn’t good enough. He will finish his college career with lower college production than most of the QB prospects over the past couple of cycles. How that will affect his NFL career remains to be seen, but for now its on to Louisville.
TCU - Baylor
THEY JUST KEEP WINNING FOLKS! TCU remains undefeated on the season after kicking a game winning field goal to beat the Baylor Bears. They lost the post game win expectancy battle, but won the game. TCU has been the team of destiny this season. How the CFB Playoff committee will ultimately handle TCU will be something we have to wait for a couple more weeks. Right now they are #4, but we have seen in the past that doesn’t automatically mean you’re in if you keep on winning. Once again, the Horned Frogs remain at the heart of the playoff debate.
Tennessee - South Carolina
Unfortunately for Tennessee, they are no longer in the CFB Playoff conversation. They were utterly destroyed by Spencer Rattler and the South Carolina Gamecocks. To make matters worse, Hendon Hooker ended up tearing his ACL, ending his spectacular season. Spencer Rattler has been relatively quiet this season, but finished with 6 TD’s and 438 passing yards, which all adds up to a 96.9 QBR. Shane Beamer and the Gamecocks continue to exceed expectations, notching their 7th win on the season.
North Carolina - Georgia Tech
North Carolina has been riding high this year on an elite offense but subpar defense, but they were derailed this week against Georgia Tech. Their playoff odds were minuscule going into this game, but now they have been officially eliminated from contention. Superstar QB Drake Maye was held in check this game, and his 34.8 QBR was the lowest on the season. As for Georgia Tech, they do technically have a shot to get to bowl eligibility against Georgia Tech, but the odds are definitely not in their favor. Still, 5-7 with a host of young talent could prove to be some attractive pieces for the next head coach.
UCF - Navy
We have an upset in the AAC! The Naval Academy knocks off the Citronauts to shake up the AAC conference championship race. If you want the full breakdown of the AAC championship, i’ll link this Orlando Sentinel article that gives you the full picture. Essentially the winner of Cincinnati-Tulane is in and will host the title game, but after that it gets confusing with CFB rankings involved. At this point, UCF will have to take care of business against USF and then see what happens around the league.
USC - UCLA
The Pac-12 has been loaded with offensive firepower, and that was exactly what was on display Saturday night in the Rose Bowl. In an offensive slugfest, USC outlasts UCLA to clinch a berth in the Pac-12 championship and keep their playoff hopes alive. QB Caleb Williams had 503 total yards of offense, 3 total TD’s, and an 87.3 QBR. He should be the Heisman frontrunner coming into the final week of the season. The Trojans most likely opponent in the Pac-12 title game is…
Oregon - Utah
The Oregon Ducks! They beat the Utah Utes and are in the best position to join USC in the title game. Bo Nix was not anywhere close to 100% in the this game, but still provided 287 passing yards and 1 TD en route to an 80.3 QBR. If Oregon beats rival Oregon State, they’re in the title game. However, Oregon State is 8-3 and are certainly no joke. Should the Ducks fall to the Beavers, chaos ensues in the Pac-12.
Washington - Colorado
If Oregon falls to Oregon State, next in line would be Washington. They just dismantled Colorado, and have one of the best offenses in the country. Not to mention QB Michael Penix is 14th in QBR, and makes some throws you’d see almost exclusively on Sunday. They have the Apple Cup against Washington State, but they still need some help from Oregon if they want to make it to the title game. If you’re looking for some end of season drama, the Pac-12 is your answer. If you’re on the east coast, better stock up on some coffee!
Power 5 QB Play
Group of 5 QB Play
If you celebrate, I hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving! Make sure to teach your family what Expected Points Added is!
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