2022 College Football National Championship Advanced Stats Primer
The Frogs and the Dawgs battle for the title
We have sadly arrived at the last college football game of the 2022 season. The National Championship as come and it’ll be the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs vs….. TCU?!?. The team of destiny, the Frogs of Texas Christian University, made it to the biggest game of the season. Im sure im not the first person to reference this, but it feels like the Frogs are taking on the role of David against Goliath. For the final time this season, let’s get familiar with the matchup unfolding tonight.
Betting Overview
Unlike the Semifinal games that hovered around a TD difference, oddsmakers do not see this game as a close matchup. For reference, last season the national championship had Georgia as a 3 point favorite against Alabama. This will TCU’s largest underdog role of the season. Their previous largest line as an underdog? Last week vs. Michigan.
How They Got Here
Georgia
Georgia punched their ticket to the national championship after winning a shootout against Ohio State. This game continued to go back and forth, and at times it felt like Georgia had finally met its match. Buckeye QB CJ Stroud had the game of his career, passing for 348 yards, 4 TD’s en route to a 93.9 QBR. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, a missed FG at the stroke of midnight sent Georgia to the National championship. Bulldog QB Stetson Bennett threw a costly interception, but his positive plays were far more beneficial and he finished with an impressive 0.301 EPA/Play.
TCU
This game was wild. If you didn’t get a chance to watch this game, I highly recommend finding a highlight package on Youtube. Coming into this game, we expected Michigan to run down TCU’s throat all night. TCU’s defense seemed to have the upper hand on Michigan’s OL all night, resulting in a -0.1 EPA/Rush performance for the Wolverines. Now to the chaos:
Michigan had multiple goal line drives ending in 0 points, including a failed fake trick play and a fumble on the 1 after a long pass that looked like it should have been a TD had it went to the replay booth. Wolverine QB JJ McCarthy had multiple pick sixes, which added up to around 16 expected points lost due to turnovers. In the end, TCU’s offense was able to slice up Michigans defense and held off the Wolverines en route to the national championship. They’ll have an opportunity to compete for their first national championship since 1938.
Mismatches
TCU was successful in handling Michigan’s vaunted rushing attack, this week they have to go against Georgia’s heavyweights. On the other side, Max Duggan and TCU’s WRs will have their hands full trying to generate explosive passes through the air. Georgia ranks 17th in the nation in allowing passes of 20+ yards (11.6%). They’re going to look to take away TCU’s home run ball, forcing everything underneath.
Some Notable Players/Stats
The Georgia Tight End Attack
If TCU can find success holding off Georgia’s run game, they will then have to contend with one of the best Tight End groups in the country. Brock Bowers has been one of Stetson’s Bennetts favorite targets since taking over the starting job, and if you can defend him you still have to defend the 6’7 270 Darnell Washington. Darnell Washington injured his ankle in the semifinal game against Ohio State, but it appears he is expected to give it a go for the national championship. Bennett likes to target his TE’s trailing only Utah’s Cameron Rising in pass attempts to TE’s this season. If Georgia can get its passing game going with their superstar TE’s, it will be a rough outing for the Frogs Defense
Dual Threat Duggan
Throughout his college career, Duggan has been able to add tremendous value with his legs. We saw it in the Big 12 Championship, and during the semifinal Duggan was able to add 2.7 expected points on the ground. Georgia’s defense has been successful stopping QB scrambles, ranking 20th in EPA/Play allowed on QB scrambles. For his final game of his career, Duggan is going to have to use his legs to extend drives and force the defense to respect his ability to beat them with his legs.
Double Digit underdogs need to embrace variance. They need the turnovers, the late down conversions, basically all the luck they can get. For the entire season, TCU has gotten what they’ve needed to win games. In terms of advanced metrics and recruiting rankings, TCU doesn’t exactly light up the page as previous champions have done. But they are here! The results on the field count, and TCU is one game away from shocking the world once again and claiming the national championship.
For Georgia, they’re looking to claim back to back national champions and cement their place as the team to beat in College Football. Stetson Bennett is the walk on turned champion that storytellers dream of. He has a chance to once again prove the haters wrong and walk away from college football as a two time champion. As the heavy favorite, Georgia just needs to avoid the chaos and variance that TCU has thrived on this season. If they can keep the game in a neutral state, they should walk away with this one.
Hopefully this primer gives you a little introduction on the national championship. It has been a pleasure bringing you advanced stats throughout the season. Hope you all enjoy the game Monday!