2022 College Football Playoff Semi Final Advanced Stats Primer
Getting you ready for some playoff football!!
Hope you all have been having a wonderful Holiday season this December. As bowl season winds down, its finally time for the College Football Playoff Semifinals. This year, we will be heading to Arizona and the “Forever Tostitos” Fiesta Bowl, and down to Atlanta for the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. This primer is mainly to give you a little overview of the semifinal games, incase any of your visiting relatives ask you what do you think of the “big game”.
Betting Overview
Let’s start with a little betting overview. Even if you don’t partake in betting, looking at betting lines can still give you an understanding of what the market that wages real money thinks will happen in the games. For both games, the home teams (Georgia and Michigan) are both favored by around a TD. These are just the spreads found at Bovada, but if you look at other sports books you may see lines up into -8 for Michigan and down to -6.5 for Georgia. The latter of these movements is important to note because it passes through the key number of 7 (TLDR on key numbers: they are important for betting because they are the most common score margins in football).
Team Overview
Here is how each playoff team did in terms of advanced metrics. There are numerous advanced metrics out there, but i decided to choose a blend of two popular metrics that combine into F+:
“F+ Ratings combine Brian Fremeau's FEI ratings with Bill Connelly's SP+ ratings in equal parts. Overall team ratings (F+), offense ratings (OF+), and defense ratings (DF+) represent each team and unit's standard deviation above or below average.” - Football Outsiders
Its no surprise that the four playoff teams are in the top right quadrant representing the best offensive and defensive teams in the country. TCU could be considered a “straggler” compared to the other three playoff teams, but nonetheless they are still one of the best teams in the country.
QB Overview
Stellar QB play has become a necessity in modern college football. Each QB in the CFB Playoffs ranks in the top 16 of ESPN’s QBR this season (3. Stroud, 6. Bennett, 14. Duggan, 16. McCarthy). QBR is essentially an Expected Points Added based metric, so we can take Raw EPA and break it down to see how these QBs have got it done this season. Buckeye QB CJ Stroud is knocked for his lack of mobility, which shows in his Rushing EPA, but he is mobile enough to avoid taking sacks. Max Duggan showed off his rushing abilities during the Big 12 Championship, and he will probably have to do it again against this vaunted Michigan defense.
Now that we have a little bit of an overview on the teams, we can dive a little bit deeper by looking at the biggest mismatches for each matchup, as well as some key players to look out for during the game. First up: The Fiesta Bowl!
Fiesta Bowl Mismatches and Key Players
Michigan likes to run the ball early and often. They rank 13th in the FBS in early down rush rate (61%) and 5th in overall rush rate (58%). The Wolverines have adapted into the bully ball system where they out talent and overpower any defense they come across. Against TCU, you can expect a heavy dose of the ground and pound run game. The TCU run defense has not been amazing this year, ranking below average in rush EPA, success rate and explosive rush rate allowed. Their biggest weakness is giving up rush yards before contact, where they rank 117th in the FBS in rush yards before contact allowed (2.4 per run). Fortunately for TCU, Michigan will be without star RB Blake Corum, who is out for the playoffs with a season ending knee injury.
Donovan Edwards has stepped into the place that Corum has vacated, and he is making the most of the increased workload. He ranks 1st in the FBS in yards per carry (7.5) and 1st in yards before contact per attempt (3.8). TCU’s defense is going to have their hands full with Edwards. If they allow him to run free, this game could be over sooner rather than later.
For TCU, the connection between Max Duggan and star WR Quentin Johnston has been electric this year. 6’4 215 lb WR’s do not normally move or play like Johnston, which makes him an extremely special athlete. In his career, no WR has been able to forced missed tackles quite like Johnston has:
Its borderline impossible to lock down Johnston, but limiting his production is a key for the Wolverine defense. If TCU gets down the game (which they normally do), Duggan will be looking towards Johnston way to give them that spark they need to complete yet another spectacular comeback.
Peach Bowl Mismatches and Key Players
I would imagine Georgia OC Todd Monken has watched Donovan Edwards and Michigan run for 252 yards on the Ohio State defense and figured they would gear their approach to the run game. The Buckeye defensive line had a nightmare of a game against the Wolverine OL, and if that repeats against Georgia its going to b e a long night. Aside from the run game, this matchup features two of the most efficient CFB QBs over the past couple of seasons:
The Buckeyes are going to live or die by the play of their start QB, CJ Stroud. The Buckeyes rank 2nd in the FBS in explosive (15+ yard) pass rate (21.1%), trailing only Air Force who you could leave out considering they’re an option team that uses the pass game as more of a surprise trick rather than a staple of their offense. The most common recipient of those explosive passes is Marvin Harrison Jr, who trails only SMU’s Rashee Rice in explosive pass plays (32 for Harrison). If Stroud and Harrison Jr can’t get on the same page, it is hard to foresee the Buckeyes winning this game.
Hopefully this quick primer gives you some ideas on how the semifinal games are going to unfold. We haven’t really gotten many close semifinal games, with the majority of them finishing as blowouts. Based on betting markets, we could see some one score thrillers, but as we saw looking into matchups, there are ways for these games to get ugly in a hurry. Either way, I hope you enjoy the games and I will see you in the new year!
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