2022 College Football Season Preview: Group of 5 Team Tiers
Clustering the Group of 5 into tiers
We are just a little over 24 hours away from the start of the 2022 College Football season! It really is finally here, after an offseason that felt like years. If you missed the power 5 preview earlier this week, here is a TLDR of the way the team tiers are created: 1. Gathered up 2022 metrics/returning production, as well as 2021 metrics. 2. Used our favorite clustering algorithm to get the teams into clusters, or groups if you will. 3. Arranged those groups by the groups average preseason win total (Draftkings). Here is a more in depth look into the variables used:
Betting Win Totals (via Draftkings Sportsbook) - If you don’t partake in sports betting, a win total is the number of wins a book sets on any given team. You can then bet on whether that team will go over that set amount of wins, or under that win total. Even if you do not bet, the betting markets can provide a ton of useful information on the strength of the program.
ESPN’s FPI: First, this includes the actual FPI number, which represents how many points above or below an average team is. I also included the projected wins/losses that come from those FPI metrics, as well as a teams odds to win their division/conference/playoffs etc.
KFord Ratings - From Kelley Ford, this power rating is scaled from 0-100 with 50 representing the FBS average. These ratings are designed to be purely predictive, or forward-looking.
Returning Production - As we learned from a previous data exploration, returning production metrics are indicators of whether a team will improve/regress from their previous season. The numbers included are from ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s returning production numbers, plus the returning usage of offensive skill position players (QB, RB, WR, TE). Finally, we also include the returning Predicted Points Added (Think EPA’s cousin) from said returning players.
A Few 2021 Metrics - The last few variables deal with how the team did last season. This includes raw advanced metrics like EPA/Play or Success Rate, as well as opponent adjusted metrics like SP+ and F+.
The only difference between the Power 5 and Group of 5 variables was the omission of playoff and national championship odds for the Group of 5. Only two G5 teams had playoff odds (Cincinnati, UCF) and only Cincinnati had odds to make the national championship (0.2%). The current playoff system is not built for the G5, which is a whole other discussion in itself. That doesn’t mean the Group of 5 isn’t filled with tons of potential storylines and memorable seasons!
Team Tiers
Last season Cincinnati made history as the first Group of 5 team to ever play in the College Football Playoff. They achieved that feat in large part due to a smother defense that finished 9th in Defensive F+ ratings and 8th in Defensive EPA/Play. The biggest question on the Bearcats, however, lies on the other side of the ball at the QB position. Cincinnati is tasked with replaced star QB Desmond Ridder, who was drafted to the Falcons in this most recent draft. They’re going to need that answer fast, their season starts with a showdown with a highly potent Arkansas team.
Next Teams Up Tier
Right below Cincinnati are the next G5 teams up to bat. These teams have an average preseason win total of 8.32, and return the most passing PPA on average compared to the rest of the tiers. The team to look out for here is the Houston Cougars. They return QB Clayton Tune, who ranked 20th in the QB Composite last year. His 90.7 PFF grade ranks 10th among returning FBS QB’s. He is the key to taking the Cougars to the next level and possibly a New Years Six bowl.
Outside of them the usual suspects (UCF and Boise State) are prime to be in contention for the NY6 Bowl spot. UCF just recently named Ole Miss Transfer John Rhys Plumlee as their starting QB. His rushing abilities should be exactly what a Gus Malzhan led offense is looking for in their signal caller. Boise State finished 31st in F+ ratings last year, but a 7-5 record will always be viewed as disappointing to Broncos fans. They return a lot of returning production, and if their offense can improve an on 81st ranked EPA/Play campaign in 2021, they’ll be back to being the Broncos we all know and love.
Fun Teams To Watch Tier
If you’re familiar with my newsletter or twitter page, you know I have a love for the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. They rank near the top of almost every statistical category offensively, run a fun offense that is essentially an option based offense with an elite QB, and most importantly: A TEAL FIELD! What more could you ask for? Grayson McCall returns for one final season with the Chanticleers, which means one final season of fun high octane efficiency.
This tiers strength was fun efficient offenses in 2021, but relatively little returning production in 2022. As expected these teams will most likely take a step back in the win column, but that doesn’t mean the fun stops. Western Kentucky is replacing Bailey Zappe, who finished with 5,977 yards and 62 touchdowns, both FBS records. His replacement? Western Florida transfer Austin Reed, who is more than capable of taking the reins of this air raid offense. The foundations for these teams are fun offenses, but it is up to the new replacements to carry on the culture.
Nice Little Bowl SZN Tier
Bowl games don’t have the same prestige that they used to, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t an accomplishment to finish with 6+ wins and gain bowl eligibility. This tier has an average win total of 6.14, so they are right on that bowl eligibility mark. This tier ranks highly in returning production, as well as 2nd among tiers in returning pass PPA. Two QB names to keep in mind here: UTEP’s Gavin Hardison and Miami of Ohio’s Brett Gabbert. They ranked 77th and 41st in the QB Composite, respectively. Hardison needs to be a little more consistent, but his big time play ability is certainly there:
IDK, Maybe We Have Something Tier
With an average win total of 4.64 wins, and ranking 2nd to last among tiers in returning production, these teams are just looking for something positive to build off of. Imagine if Timmy Chang came back and brought the Rainbow Warriors to a bowl game in year one after a disastrous Todd Graham tenure? ESPN just recently ran a piece on Chang’s return to the island, and in it you could feel what Hawaii means to Chang. While their win total is set at 4.5, FPI has them at 6.6 wins and a 77% chance to get to 6 wins and a bowl. Those are the type of stories that make college football so much more than the team that hoists the trophy.
Hope We Don’t Get Meme’d Tier
Last up, we have the tier you probably do not want to be in. At 3.5, their average win total ranks last among G5 tiers. They rank near the bottom of nearly every 2022 metric, as well as 2021. There really isn’t much to say about this tier, just know if you see the school name trending on twitter, it probably isn’t going to be for a great thing.
Tier Analysis
Here are the averages for each of the tiers that I have been mentioning. It is nice to see FPI, KFord, and betting markets all seem to agree on the placements of the groups.
That will do it for previews! Now all that is left is to lace em up and play ball. As I usually do on CFB Saturdays, I will be periodically putting up advanced box scores on finished games on twitter. If you do not use twitter, no worries! They will all go into an advanced stat recap here on the newsletter. If you want to get live advanced stats during the day, check out GameonPaper.com. There you will find EPA/WPA, and a whole bunch of other advanced stats as they transpire in real time. I hope you all have a wonderful week 0!
If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!
If you want to see more charts and one off analysis, follow my twitter page, @CFBNumbers