2022 College Football Week 0 Advanced Stats Recap
Ahhhh it is back ladies and gentlemen!
Its hard to describe how exciting the first week of the college football season is, even if it was just a “week 0”. It is probably the same feeling you get when the appetizers come out when you’re famished. While we just had a couple of games this Saturday, there is plenty to discuss. Let’s kick off the first advanced stats recap of the year!
*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
Nebraska vs. Northwestern
Oh Nebraska, you never cease to amaze us. The Cornhuskers continue to defy reality and lose yet another one score game against Northwestern in Ireland. Nebraska had multiple double digits leads during the contest, attempted an onside kick up 11, had a tipped interception and a fumble that probably wasn’t a fumble. So, typical Cornhusker activities.
For a Big Ten contest, this game had a surprisingly good set of QB’s. Ryan Hilinski was lights out for the Wildcats, keeping a clean sheet in terms of sacks and turnovers. His 0.468 EPA/Play is around a 90th percentile game in the CFP Era. Casey Thompson had some highlight moments, and honestly lost a lot of EPA on turnovers that were not really on him. While his final EPA/Play wasn’t amazing, his 84.1 offensive PFF grade ranked 9th among the 23 qualifying QB’s this week. Similar to his predecessor Adrian Martinez, the loss can’t be pinned on him.
Nebraska in the Scott Frost era has always been interesting to me, because they completely destroy the notion that teams who lose close in one score games eventually turn it around. I wrote about their 2021 season, which was a 8-10 win season disgusted as a 3-9 season. The Frost era is most likely ending this season, and you can simply describe it with two words: missed opportunities.
Florida State vs. Duquesne
Not too much to say here, other than the game went about as expected. A rain delay followed by more rain turned this into more of a ground game, although Jordan Travis still managed to rip off 207 passing yards and 2 Big Time Throws. His 93.0 PFF grade and 92.9 Passing Grade were both 1st among Week 0 QB’s. The real story was on the ground, where FSU had 3 100+ yard rushers in route to their most efficient rushing performance of the CFP era:
Western Kentucky vs Austin Peay
The first game in the post Bailey Zappe era for Western Kentucky was… a little bit of a rough patch. Nevertheless, Western Kentucky gets the win over Austin Peay. The Governors were done in by their turnovers, including a rather unfortunate pick six:
First game for Western Florida transfer Austin Reed: Not bad!! Maybe not as efficient as Bailey Zappe, but you can never be made at a 70th percentile performance.
North Carolina vs. FAMU
So a little context behind this game. FAMU was down 25 players due to eligibility issues, which didn’t arise until the day they were scheduled to leave for North Carolina. They only had 7 available offensive lineman. In my opinion, 24 points and positive EPA is an absolute win for the Rattlers. For the Tarheels, you feel good about the offense, but the same cannot be said about the defense. If you cannot defend against a short staffed FCS opponent, the gauntlet of QB’s in the ACC will eat you alive.
While the defense leaves a lot to be desired, the QB situation post Sam Howell looks to be in great hands with Drake Maye. A ~95th percentile EPA/Play performance, and the 5th best offensive PFF grade on the slate (88.4). ESPN has a Points Above Average Metric that is defined as follows: "Number of points contributed by a QB, accounting for QBR and how much he plays, above the level of an average QB". Last night Drake Maye had the highest PAA in an opening debut since 2016.
Wyoming vs. Illinois
Effective, solid win for the Fighting Illini. Chase Brown racked up 151 yards on the ground, along with 2 TD’s. If it wasn’t for OL Yards, Illinois would have swept the advanced stats box score.
QB Box Score Shoutout: UTEP vs. North Texas
Austin Aune finished with a highly efficient 0.426 EPA/Play, which puts him right around the 90th percentile for EPA/Play. His 90.8 Offensive PFF grade ranked 2nd among QB’s. For Gavin Hardison, it was largely a not efficient outing. One thing to note: His 8 Big Time Throws was first among QB’s by a full 4 BTT’s. We know Hardison has big play potential, as he was 2nd among returning FBS QB’s in Big Play % (% of plays above a 90th percentile EPA). There is something here with Hardison, UTEP just needs to figure out how to harness those abilities.
That is all I got for week 0! Some of the other games had data issues, which I hope are ironed out in the future. In the meantime, we got a little taste of college football, with more to come on Thursday. The season is here!!!
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