2023 CFB Week 1 Advanced Stats Recap

The 2023 season is off and running!!!

The calendar officially hit September. In Florida that means that while the weather is still very hot, we do get some cool breezes occasionally that feel good. It also means we have college football on our TV’s for the next 3+ months!

For those that are new to the newsletter, the weekly advanced stats recaps are meant to show some of the notable games of the week by the numbers as well as how the QBs played that week. With that said, let’s dive in for the first time in 2023!

*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.

Florida - Utah

To kick off the week, Florida took a rare road trip in their out of conference (first time they played out of Florida in their out of conference schedule since 1991) schedule to the beautiful Utah mountains to take on the Utes. Utah was missing their star QB Cameron Rising, but that didn’t matter as they cruised to victory against the Gators.

Florida lost 4.62 expected points to penalties, the biggest coming on an illegal equipment penalty (Florida had two players with the No. 3 on the field) that gave Utah the ball back and they subsequently scored a couple plays after. For a coach that is REALLY looking for a good season, losing via bone crushing penalties is a pretty tough way to start the season.

Georgia Tech - Louisville

Friday night we saw a high scoring ACC affair that saw Louisville eventually pull away from the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech may have lost, but they had moments where their offense showed explosiveness in ways they have not seen in a while. Turnovers eventually got the best of the Yellow Jackets.

For Louisville, the Jeff Brohm era starts with a come from behind victory that keeps them on schedule this season. Louisville misses both FSU and Clemson this year due to the elimination of divisions. They also get Murray State and Indiana to go along with ND in their out of conference. This all sounds like a recipe for a great first season for the Brohm era, and one that starts the momentum going on the recruiting trail.

TCU - Colorado

2 days into September and we already have a game of the year candidate. Colorado came into this game 21 point underdogs. Amidst the offseason hype, the Deion Sanders era was supposed to start with a crushing defeat back into reality. Well, the exact opposite happened as the Buffs take down the 2022 National runner up in one of the biggest upsets we are most likely to see this year. Not only did they beat TCU, they were more efficient and explosive on offense. TCU found success on the ground, but they tried to force the passing game and Travis Hunter and the Buff secondary were ready for the challenge.

Speaking of Travis Hunter, he played 151 (!) snaps combined on offense and defense (PFF). This is the breakdown of where he played:

https://twitter.com/tejfbanalytics/status/1698331138727555189?s=20

Will Hunter be able to play 150 snaps a game consistently? Absolutely not. However, if he continues to wow on both sides of the ball, he will threaten the QBs stranglehold on the Heisman trophy.

The other star for Colorado was QB Shedeur Sanders, who looked like a QB that will be playing on Sunday’s in the future. How impressive was he? His 42.9 EPA from pass attempts ranked 2nd most in the CFP era for a week 0-1 game.

Western Kentucky - USF

Coming into this game, we weren’t really sure what to expect from USF, who finished as one of the worst G5 teams in 2022. Alex Golesh, the head coach for South Florida, comes from the Heupel coaching tree which means explosive, high powered offenses that some may call “gimmicky”. For a good portion of the game USF was able to keep up with Western Kentucky, who is expected to be one of the better G5 teams this year. While the Hilltoppers were able to eventually pull away, there were definitely bright spots for a Bulls team looking for its identity. If USF finds its footing under Golesh, the Heupel offense will continue to spread its roots around CFB.

Nebraska - Minnesota

NEBRASKA!!!!! Someone associated with the Cornhusker football team cursed the program, because they continue to win the post game expected game battle but losing the actual game. Since 2018, they have a wins above expectation of -11.1. That means per advanced stats, they should have 11 more wins than the actually have (yes, this leads the FBS). As for this game, a late Jeff Sims pick made the game go from a potential Nebraska game winning drive to a game winning FG for Minnesota. The statistical anomaly that is the Nebraska Cornhuskers continues to get crazier by the game.

Washington - Boise State

In 2022, Washingtons defense ranked 107th in EPA/play allowed. While the offense was in the top 25, the defense had enough question marks that many wondered if it would affect a potential CFB playoff run in 2023. We only have one game to go off so far, but the Husky defense was impressive in their domination of a Boise State team that is expected to contend in the Mountain West. Offensively, QB Michael Penix continued to play heisman worthy football, throwing for 450 yards and 5 TDs. If Washingtons defense can keep up with their offense, they will be squarely in the playoff race this season.

North Carolina - South Carolina

In the battle of the Carolinas, Drake Maye and the tarheels started the season off strong with a victory against the Gamecocks. While the Gamecocks didn’t turn the ball over, South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler was sacked 9 times which can at times be just as costly as a turnover. Despite two INTs, Drake Maye was still efficient in his 2023 debut, and a 84.0 QBR is nothing to be ashamed of in the start of his heisman campaign.

Florida State - LSU

Being the offseason champion can be hard to live up to once the games get going, but the Seminoles answered the call in dominating fashion against LSU. The first half ended with LSU up 17-14 and looking in control on offense. The second half was the complete opposite: 31 straight points for Jordan Travis and the FSU offense helped them pull away from the Tigers. While an ACC championship appearance felt more realistic before the game, Seminole fans may want to set their sights even higher.

Clemson - Duke

To end the week we saw the Duke Blue Devils get it done as the home underdog against Clemson. Clemson’s offensive struggles continue into the new year. Anytime you see a high success rate but a low EPA/Play, head on over to the “EPA lost to turnovers” section of the box score and you’ll get your answer. Multiple fumbles lost in scoring position ultimately cost the Tigers the victory here. Duke is a legitimate ACC contender this season, get used to hearing that!

QB Play: Power 5

QB Play: Group of 5

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