2023 CFB Week 10 Advanced Stats Recap
Getting down to the wire on the CFB season!
I know I will probably say this a lot, but I can’t believe the season is almost over! We have only three more weeks of regular season CFB, and then its Army-Navy and conference championships. What the heck happened to October? Anyway, let’s see what this week of CFB had in store for us.
*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
Texas - Kansas State
For the first part of this game it looked like Texas was going to roll to an easy victory against Kansas State. Turnovers started to pile up for the Longhorns, which ended up costing them nearly 18 expected points and allowed Kansas State back into the game. However, Kansas State ended up shooting themselves in the foot with multiple missed field goals, including an extra point that would have given them a 28-27 lead in the 4th quarter. In OT, Kansas State opted to go for it on 4th down instead of turning to their kicker and they were stopped which sealed the victory for Texas. The biggest contributor for the Longhorns was WR Adonai Mitchell, who caught a couple deep bombs and finished with 8 catches for 149 yards and 1 TD, which added 10.63 EP.
Clemson - Notre Dame
Clemson came into this game starring down the barrel of a 4-5 record if they couldn’t get it done against a good Notre Dame team. While it wasn’t a game to remember on the offensive side, Clemson was able to get it done with their defense. LB Jeremiah Trotter was the star of the game, finishing with 3 sacks, and a pick six on Irish QB Sam Hartman. The Tigers finish the season with Georgia Tech, North Carolina and then rival South Carolina. Instead of having to win 2 of those 3 games, they now just need one more to get to bowl eligibility which can salvage this season.
Oklahoma State - Oklahoma
Bedlam! In in the final year of the annual series between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, the Cowboys get the last laugh in a back and forth affair between the teams. This win gives Oklahoma State two wins over Oklahoma in the last three seasons. Oklahoma State QB Alan Bowman finished with 347 total yards and 1 rushing TD, which contributed around 19 expected points.
FSU - Pittsburgh
FSU did not have their two future NFL WRs (Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman) for this game, but QB Jordan Travis was still able to pass for 360 yards and 1 TD, which contributed 8.73 expected points. The Pittsburgh defense, knowing that FSU did not have their top pass catchers, did everything they can to stop the run, and they were able to stuff a third of the Noles rush attempts. This game was closer than expected in the beginning, but the Noles were too strong and pulled away in the 2nd half. This victory punched their ticket to the ACC Championship. In terms of the CFB Playoff, they still need to finish out the year taking on Miami and Florida. While they will be heavily favored in both, you just never know sometimes in a rivalry game.
Army - Air Force
Air Force came into the game as 17.5 point favorites against Army and undefeated on the season. They turned the ball over SEVEN times which racked up 28.5 expected points lost due to turnovers. When you look at the primary causes of an upset, turnovers typically end up being one of the main factors. Army QB Bryson Daily is their leading rusher, and he ended up rushing for 172 yards and 2 TD’s, including one long rushing explosive TD. In terms of point spreads, this was one of the biggest upsets of the year. Air Force was the 2nd highest rated Group of 5 team behind Tulane, but it appears their NY6 Bowl hopes have been dashed by their service academy rival.
UGA - Missouri
This game and their game next week against Ole Miss were two games that were seen as potential slip up areas for the defending national champions. This game was relatively close for the most part, and Georgia actually ended up losing the post game win expectancy battle. The final nail in Missouri’s coffin came in the middle of the 4th with a Brady Cook INT that set up Georgia to kick a FG to take this game into two score territory. Bulldog QB Carson Beck continues to look really solid, passing for 254 yards and 2 TD’s which added 6.37 expected points. One test game down for Georgia, one left in the regular season against Ole Miss.
Alabama - LSU
The first of two marquee night games saw the classic rivalry of Alabama LSU. Coming into this game LSU was the better team offensively, which could have spelled trouble for an Alabama offense that isn’t quite as dominant as year’s past. LSU’s defense had no answer for Jalen Milroe, who passed for 229 yards and rushed for 167 yards, with 4 rushing TD’s to boot. All of that contributed 22 expected points to the Crimson Tide. One turning point of the game was star Tiger QB Jayden Daniels having to exit the game due to concussion protocol due to a hit by Dallas Turner that could have called for targeting. That knocked Daniels out of the game in the 4th, which is when the Tide pulled away. Assuming they don’t stumble against Kentucky or in the Iron Bowl against Auburn, its looking like another Alabama-Georgia showdown in the SEC Championship.
Washington - USC
The other marquee game was a defense optional shootout of two Pac-12 contenders. This game was just straight TD’s for the vast majority of the game, and it felt like whichever team blinked first was going to end up losing the game. That team ended up being USC, who now have 3 losses on the season and are out of the Pac-12 championship race. While Heisman candidate Michael Penix Jr was solid as usual, the biggest star was RB Dillon Johnson, who rushed for 256 yards and 4 TD’s, which contributed 19 expected points to the Washington offense. Washington is currently on the outside looking in for the CFB playoff race, but if they win out they will 100% be in the playoff. So, no worries Huskies fans, just keep on winning!
Power 5 QB Play
Group of 5
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