2023 CFB Week 3 Advanced Stats Recap
If we’re being honest with ourselves, this week was supposed to be a little bit of a down week (especially compared to this upcoming week). However, the CFB gods gave us plenty to be interested in this week, with a lot of top teams struggling at various points in time. Let’s check out some of the more interesting games of the past week.
*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
Army - UTSA
On Friday, we saw the Army Black Knights take down a hobbled and struggling UTSA team in a shootout. If you haven’t watched Army this season, YES THEY DO IN FACT THROW THE FOOTBALL! NCAA rules on cut blocking have forced Army to abandon the under center triple option in favor of an option style offense out of the shotgun. After a week 1 loss to Louisiana Monroe, Army has found a little groove on offense. While it is sad they had to go away from the famous triple option, I would still recommend watching the Black Knights in their new look offense.
Florida State - Boston College
Our first “probably shouldn’t have been this close” game was my Seminoles surviving on the road against Boston College in their Red Bandana Game. Boston College was able to move the ball effectively on offense in large part due to the play of their QB Thomas Castellanos who racked up 400 total yards. If it weren’t for the Eagles 18 penalties that cost them 9.96 expected points, they may have walked away with a massive upset win. In the end, the Noles get to 3-0 with Clemson up next.
Alabama - USF
This game was 10-3 until deep into the 3rd quarter! There was a downpour which ended up delaying the game in the middle of it, so there are some reasons why an offense wouldn’t be able to move the ball. But this is Alabama, and USF finished 2022 ranking in the 120s-130s in virtually every defensive metric you can find. Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson still could not get the ball moving through the air. Alabama may have won the game, but they leave with far more questions than they entered the game.
Missouri - Kansas State
This was billed as one of the better games on the slate this week, and it certainly lived up to its hype. Brady Cook connected with star WR Luther Burden 7 times for 114 yards and 2 TD’s, which added 10.43 expected points for the Tigers. This game came down to a 61 yard game winning field goal, which Harrison Melvis absolutely hammered down the middle. This was a massive win for a Missouri team that needed a high profile win on their resume in the Drinkwitz era.
North Carolina - Minnesota
Not too much to say here other than Drake Maye and North Carolina roll through a Minnesota team that was solid on defense going back to last season. Maye finished with 414 passing yards and added 12.9 total expected points on passes and rushes. One thing that might be interesting is Maye/UNC keep racking up the turnovers. While it hasn’t necessarily hurt them in the win column, it may be something to monitor going forward.
Florida - Tennessee
The Swamp was loud and electric Saturday night as they take down former #11 Tennessee. Florida fans finally got a good Graham Mertz game! While it wasn’t a lot through the air (only 166 yards), 0.576 EPA/Pass is a hyper efficient mark that the Gators have been looking for since he transferred from Wisconsin. Tennessee QB Joe Milton finished with positive EPA through the air, but 0.049 EPA/Pass won’t drown out the critics that want to see 5 star Nico Iamaleava get the nod at QB.
Georgia - South Carolina
This game was a tale of two halves. In the first half, it looked like Georgia would join FSU and Alabama as contenders that struggled late into the game against a team they should have put away early. However, in the second half Georgia imposed their will on both side of the ball and put the game away against the Gamecocks. In terms of EPA/play, the Bulldog offense ranks 25th this year. While that will still get the job done, it is still a far cry away from their 6th ranking last year. I can’t imagine there is that much panic in Athens on their offense, but it should be something to note as we continue on into the season.
Colorado - Colorado State
This game ended at like 2AM on the east coast time, so I can understand if you did not finish watching this game (I did and paid for it the next morning). Colorado was down 28-17 into the 4th quarter, and it looked like Colorado was going to be handed a stunning loss to their in state rival, on a day that was all about the Buffaloes hype train. In the end, Shedeur Sanders led the Buffs back into the game to force OT, where they ended up prevailing against the Rams. Two way star Travis Hunter was taken to the hospital after an extremely illegal late hit that probably should have sent the defender out of the game. Colorado was not expected to be 3-0 at this point, so they are massively ahead of schedule. The bad news? They get Oregon and USC in back to back weeks.
Power 5 QB Play
Group of 5 QB Play
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