2023 CFB Week 4 Advanced Stats Recap
Recapping a massive week of games!
This week was billed as the most hyped week so far this season, and one of the better weeks in the entire year. While some games may not have lived up to the hype, there were plenty that did and some unsuspecting games that turned out to be CFB classics. Let’s recap some of the notable games this week!
*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
FSU - Clemson
*Note* Not sure why the Kalen Deloach fumble TD isn’t showing up on the ‘EP lost to turnovers’. Per GameonPaper, Clemson lost -11.05 EP on that play!
For the first time since 2014, FLORIDA STATE HAS BEEN CLEMSON!!!!! Clemson was better offensively for the majority of the game, which you can see from the boxscore. Kalen Deloach’s fumble return for a TD kept the Noles in the game, and in the end Keon Coleman was able to snag one last jump ball in OT to put away the Tigers. FSU has been a little lucky in the past couple games, but this one was big. 4-0 is still 4-0, and FSU is in control of the ACC race.
Oklahoma - Cincinnati
Maybe im just missing it but Oklahoma has been quietly dominating this season. This week they take down Cincinnati in impressive fashion. Dillion Gabriel is currently 8th in the country in ESPN QBR, and the defense ranks 11th in the FBS in EPA/Play allowed. Mark your calendars for October 7th - the Red River rivalry. As it stands this year, Oklahoma is looking like it will put up a lot bigger fight than last season.
Colorado - Oregon
Oregon was 21 point favorites coming into this game, but I don’t think anyone thought it would be quite the blowout that we saw on Saturday. From the start of the game, Oregon straight up dominated Colorado, handing Deion Sanders his first loss as the Buffs HC. What Deion has done at Colorado has been incredible so far, but you can’t quite turn everything around into a contender in one offseason.
As for Oregon, they look like they’re once again CFB playoff contenders. They rank 4th in the FBS EPA/Play on offense, and 23rd on defense. While they still have the rest of the Pac-12 gauntlet to go, they’re looking as formidable as ever.
Utah - UCLA
Utah has still not had their star QB Cameron Rising this season, but it hasn’t mattered so far. In a defensive struggle Utah was able to close it out at home against UCLA. The Utah defense pressured true freshman UCLA QB Dante Moore 47.7% of the time, which turned into 7 sacks on the young QB. While the offense continues to struggle without Rising, if he can come back this season… watch out for the Utes!
Washington State - Oregon State
This was a really fun matchup between two completely different, but effective offenses. For Washington State, they win through the air with a more Air raid style attack led by QB Cameron Ward. For Oregon State, they like to pound the rock in their wide zone offense and elite run blocking OL. Cameron Ward finished with 404 yards and 4 TD’s to put away the Beavers in the Pac-2 championship.
Washington - Cal
Washington has a high powered offense capable of scoring at any time. Which means, if the game starts 14-0, and star QB Michael Penix Jr hasn’t touched the field…. you’re in big trouble:
Michael Penix passed for 304 yards and 4 TD’s, good for 0.64 EPA/Play (96th percentile). Its hard not to be hyperbolic about this team. Their offense ranks 4th in EPA/Play, the defense is capable of stopping opponents, and Michael Penix is probably your Heisman trophy winner if the award was handed out today. In a loaded Pac-12, you might make the case that Washington is the team to beat so far this season.
Arkansas - LSU
With 45 seconds to go in the first half, Arkansas had a 58.9% chance to win leading 13-3. Then this happened:
That TD lit a fire under LSU, who sealed the game with a game winning FG with 5 seconds left in the game. Tiger QB Jayden Daniels finished with 4 passing TD’s en route to an 85.4 ESPN QBR.
Ohio State - Notre Dame
For the majority of this game, you would probably categorize this as a “defensive slugfest” with game being 10-7 into the 4th quarter. In the end, Ohio State had one last drive to go ahead of the Irish. With the criticism that Ryan Day has received from the Buckeye faithful, this was a legacy drive. Kyle McCord and the Buckeye offense drive down the field and score with one second left on the clock to put away Notre Dame at home. As you can tell by the post game win expectancy, this was a brutal loss for the Irish.
(Quick note: Ohio State was a -2.5 favorite. On the game winning TD, they had to review whether there was one second left on the clock, which meant OSU would have had to kick the XP to go up 3 points. Talk about an all time sweat if you beat Ohio State!)
Power 5 QB Play
Group of 5 QB Play
Buy Me A Coffee!
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/CFBNumbers
As long as I do this newsletter I will keep it free so that as many people as possible can enjoy and join us on our CFB data adventure. However, if you did want to show additional support the newsletter (which you 100% do not have to!) you can always buy me a coffee here!
If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!
If you want to see more charts and one off analysis, follow my twitter page, @CFBNumbers