2023 CFB Week 5 Advanced Stats Recap
You know the drill: Looking at the numbers of the previous week!
I like to think of the CFB season as a meal at a restaurant. September is the appetizers, maybe a little chips and queso or something light to start off your meal. You’re still looking at the menu trying to figure out whats good, and you can’t quite make judgement of the restaurant just yet. As the last week of September has come and gone, let’s look back at one final September week before we get into the main courses that October will be bringing next week.
*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
Utah - Oregon State
For the first 4 weeks Utah has been getting by without their star QB Cameron Rising, who is still recovering from a torn ACL last season. However, they couldn’t withstand Oregon State and their grind it out wide zone offense on Friday as they lose for the first time this season. Utah QBs Nate Johnson and Bryson Barnes went a combined 13/30, 141 yards and a TD and just couldn’t keep up with Oregon State on offense. Oregon State gets a massive bounce back win after suffering their first loss last week.
USC - Colorado
To the credit of Colorado, they weren’t nearly as outclassed as they were last week against Oregon. While at one point in this game it was 41-14, they did battle back to come within one score of the Trojans. In the end, Caleb Williams was just too much for the Buffs. He finished with 403 passing yards and 6 TD’s, adding to a highlight reel that is approaching feature length film territory. 2023 USC is feeling similar to 2022 USC in that the offense is fun and explosive and efficient, but the defense….. squarely in the “tank your season” category.
Kentucky - Florida
Kentucky ranks 49th in EPA/Pass, which isn’t exactly world beating, but when you can run like the Wildcats do it might not even matter. RB Ray Davis finished with 280 (!) rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs as the Wildcats completely run over the Gators. Gators QB Graham Mertz actually had an elite game, grading out at a 92.0 overall (PFF). Mertz can be a bit of a rollercoaster week to week, so you really want to win the “great Graham Mertz” games. Unfortunately for UF that was not the case this week.
Georgia - Auburn
Georgia has been a juggernaut for the better part of 3 years, but this year it feels like these games are a little bit closer than you would want them to be. Auburn had a 60.5% win probability with 10 mins left to go in the 3rd quarter. The game was actually tied with a little under 3 mins to go, but Brock Bowers sealed the win with a 40 yard catch and run from Carson Beck. Overall the Bulldogs rank 15th in EPA/Play so it is by no means bad, but maybe not as death machine as previous seasons.
Baylor - UCF
UCF was up 35-7 deep into the 3rd quarter of this game. It felt like Dave Aranda and the Baylor Bears were heading to a 1-4 start to the season. That was until they scored 29 answered points which included a 72 yard fumble return TD to go ahead of the Citronauts and steal a win from them. While they didn’t win, UCF QB Timmy McClain had one of the wildest 4th down conversions you will ever see this season.
LSU - Ole Miss
Speaking of comebacks, the Lane Train staged a late game comeback against LSU to steal a game in the SEC West from the Tigers. With about 8 mins to go, LSU was up 49-40 and had a 92.7% win probability (ESPN). QB Jaxson Dart tossed two TD passes in about 5 mins to seal the comeback victory for Ole Miss. He finished the day with 27.7 EPA through the air and 6 EPA on the ground. For LSU, they win the post game win expectancy battle but that wasn’t enough to get the win. With 2 losses on the schedule, LSU’s hope for a playoff bit has been all but extinguished.
Washington - Arizona
In a somewhat similar fashion to USC/Colorado, Washington was in control for the majority of the game but they didn’t quite put away Arizona. This was the smallest margin of victory for the Huskies this season, and Michael Penix didn’t throw any TD passes (still finished with 363 passing yards). Cause for concern? Not really. However, after a bye week next week: Oregon comes to town it what will be a top ten matchup.
Notre Dame - Duke
Another week, another defensive slugfest involving Notre Dame. This time, however, the Fighting Irish come away with the victory against a very tough Duke Blue Devils team. Audric Estime had two rushing TDs, one of which was a 30 yard rushing TD late in the game that ended up being the game winner. Unfortunately for Duke, they not only lost the game but star QB Riley Leonard suffered a high ankle sprain at the very end of the game. While he isn’t expected to miss the season, it sounds like we won’t see him much if at all this month.
Power 5 QB Play
Group of 5 QB Play
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