2023 CFB Week 6 Advanced Stats Recap
Can't believe we are already halfway through the season!
All across broadcasts last week I kept hearing “we’re about halfway done with the season”, which is crazy! It literally feels like the season just started 2 days ago. Some teams have already hit their halfway point in games while others still have one more game left this upcoming week. 5-6 games in is when we can start to be more confident in what we know and who is actually good/bad in college football. Let’s see what we learned this week in the advanced stats recap!
*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
Red River Rivalry
One of the best rivalries in the sport has added another dramatic chapter in its books. Oklahoma came out of the gate firing forcing Quinn Ewers into an early interception, but Texas hung in for most of the game. With 1:17 seconds left in the game, Sooners QB Dillon Gabriel orchestrated a game winning drive masterclass that put Oklahoma over the top to win the golden hat. For Texas, 11.25 EP lost to turnovers (which includes failed 4th down conversions) was a massive factor in this loss. Coming into the season we thought Texas was the team to watch in their final year in the Big 12, but it looks like its still the Sooners.
LSU - Missouri
This game had “offensive shootout” written all over it, and it certainly lived up to the hype. For the majority of the game, it seemed like Missouri’s offense has too much to handle for a depleted LSU secondary. However, Jayden Daniels decided enough was enough and put his team on his back. He added 26.6 EPA on both passes and rushes, which was enough for LSU to steal a road victory against Missouri.
Alabama - Texas A&M
Much of the talk surrounding Alabama has been how they’re more vulnerable than ever this year, and making the SEC championship could be a long shot. Well, they now sit in their usual spot atop the SEC West after dispatching Jimbo Fisher and the TAMU Aggies in College Station. Jalen Milroe was effective through the air, throwing for 3 TDs on 333 yards. However, 6 sacks ended up bringing down his EPA/Dropback. While taking sacks can certainly tank an offensive drive, it was enough for Alabama in this game.
UCLA - Washington State
In a sneaky good ranked matchup in the Pac-12, UCLA’s defense completely stifled Cam Ward and a previously hot Washington State offense. Washington State came into this game ranked 9th in EPA/Play on offense, and the UCLA defense forced them to lose over half of a point every time they ran a play. UCLA’s defense now ranks 3rd in EPA/Play allowed, 2nd only to Penn State in the Power 5. While their offense has struggled to find consistency with true freshman Dante Moore, if they can find that consistency…. watch out for the Bruins!
Louisville - Notre Dame
Its no secret that Louisville has had one of the more softer schedules in the power 5. Coming into this game, we weren’t quite sure how real Louisville was, but we would certainly find out against a tough ND defense. While it wasn’t a banner day through the air, RB Jawhar Jordan ran for 2 TDs and 143 rushing yards, which was good for 7.28 EPA. The Cardinal defense was able to force 3 INTs on Sam Hartman, as well as a forced fumble. All told, ND lost well over 2 TD’s in EP due to turnovers. Notre Dame’s offense feels a little clunky, and this gauntlet of a schedule stretch is starting to get to them.
Georgia - Kentucky
It feels like over the past couple of seasons, Kentucky and Georgia play in a hyped ranked matchup that ends up just being Georgia imposing their will and reminding everyone who is still atop the college football world. The Bulldogs offense has been maybe not as good as you would probably want it, but in this game they really found their groove. QB Carson Beck threw for 390 yards and 4 TD’s, which was good for 21.2 EPA. The offense was efficient, the defense was dominant… feels like Georgia is starting to turn on their death machine.
USC - Arizona
The late night bout saw USC struggle offensively for the first part of the game as Arizona quickly went up 17-0. Of course, you can’t keep Caleb Williams down for too long, and soon enough it was 28-28 after 4 quarters. It took 3 overtimes to settle this game with Caleb Williams punching in a two point conversion in the third overtime to survive a scare against the Wildcats.
Georgia Tech - Miami
There is only one thing to say about this game that wouldn’t normally be included in this article. I am 27 years old, and the way Miami lost this game is the worst type of loss I have ever seen in my lifetime.
This is the scenario. You literally just have to knee the ball and you win the game. Instead, Miami runs the ball and subsequently fumbles it back to Georgia Tech. EVEN AFTER THAT Georgia Tech, who had 80 yards passes before this last drive, marches 74 yards down the field to score a game winning TD in one of the biggest victory steals in the history of the sport. Mario Cristobal, who has a history with questionable game management decisions, may have topped himself with this decision.
Power 5 QB Play
Group of 5 QB Play
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