2023 CFB Week 7 Advanced Stats Recap
Comebacks and hail merry's galore!
Every season there are a couple weeks where I can’t really fit all of the notable games in one article because of substack length limits. This week just so happened to fit that bill (Check out the Boise St - Colorado St hail merry game recap here on GameonPaper.com). From massive comebacks to hail merry’s to statement wins, this week had everything. So, let’s get as much as we can in!
*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
Houston - West Virginia
The first win probability roller coaster ride of the week was on Thursday, when Houston won the game on a game winning hail merry against West Virginia. WVU had scored the potential game winning TD, but QB Garrett Greene was flagged for an unsportsmanlike following the TD. That allowed Houston to work on a little shorter field, and they drove the ball down to at least attempt a hail merry that was ultimately caught and sealed the stolen victory for the Cougars. That hail merry gave QB Donovan Smith 4 passing TD’s and 5 in total which is good for 14.26 EPA.
Stanford - Colorado
*Note* Shedeur’s INT does not show up on this box score because it happened in OT and EPA isn’t great with OT
Colorado went up 29-0 heading into half time. A vast majority of the east coast clicked off the game because it was getting late and it was time for bed. When they woke up in the morning, the consensus reaction was: “What the f*** happened?”. Stanford scored a TD on their first 5 drives in the 2nd half, and the 6th drive was the game tying FG to send it into OT. Stanford forces an INT on star Buffs QB Shedeur Sanders, and kick another FG to shock Colorado late into the night. Stanford QB Ashton Daniels started slow but exploded in the 2nd half to finish with 396 yards and 4 TDs, good for 0.56 EPA/Play.
Washington - Oregon
One of the best things in CFB is when a game lives up to all of the hype surrounding it leading up to the game. This game was that game this week as Washington survives at home against a very good Oregon team. Heisman candidates Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr battled back and forth, but Penix and the high powered Huskies offense was just too much for Oregon. Washington has the upper hand in the Pac-12, and are looking like a solid CFP contender.
Alabama - Arkansas
While we had numerous comebacks this week, this one was an almost comeback. Alabama kicked a FG to go up 24-6 with ~7 mins to go in the 3rd. Arkansas got it to 24-21 with 10 mins to go in the 4th, but Alabama ended up sealing the game with a 10 play, 26 yard drive that lasted the final 5:19 left in the game. Alabama is still the leader in the clubhouse in the SEC West, and they’ll be looking for revenge against Tennesse last week.
UNC - Miami
After one of the worst losses in CFB history, Miami was looking to bounce back against UNC. This game was relatively close for most of the night, but Miami kept turning the ball over which allowed UNC to pull away and maintain the lead. Its just way too hard to win with over 16 expected points lost to turnovers. Drake Maye finished with 4 passing TDs, 3 of which to “Tez” Walker who was recently deemed eligible after a battle with the NCAA.
Oregon State - UCLA
While Washington has established themselves as the Pac-12 frontrunner, you can’t forget about the Oregon State Beavers. Defensively they forced 3 INTs on freshman Dante Moore, one of which was a pick six. Offensively they averaged 7.7 yards per play, and QB DJ Uiagalelei finished with 2 passing TDs en route to a 81.0 ESPN QBR. Oregon State may have one loss on their record, but they are one of the most complete teams in the country.
Notre Dame - USC
We end the week with one of the more storied rivalries in the sport. In this installment, Notre Dame just straight up bullied Caleb Williams and the USC Trojans offense. Caleb Williams threw 3 INTs, the first time ever he had 3 INTs in one game. Tack on 2 more fumbles by the USC offense and you 5 total turnovers with over 25 expected points lost. Offensively Notre Dame wasn’t really all that impressive, but when your defense is dominating its not really the end of the world. USC is obviously still alive for the Pac-12 race, but the CFB playoff might be a tall order after this beatdown.
Power 5 QB Play
Group of 5 QB Play
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