2023 CFB Week 8 Advanced Stats Recap

Upsets, near upsets, and whatever Iowa-Minnesota is. Another fantastic week of CFB!

We are in the meat of the CFB season. Its going to seem like it flys by, so make sure you stop, take a deep breath and enjoy the atmosphere. From upsets to near upsets and Michigan State making the news for more bad things, this felt like a classic CFB weekend. Let’s recap some games!

*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.

Ohio State - Penn State

The biggest game of the week saw Ohio State push the series to seven straight victories against the Nittany Lions. Coming into this game we thought this was potentially the moment Penn State powers past the Buckeyes, but it seemed like more of the same from James Franklin’s program. Former 5 star QB Drew Allar looked uncomfortable under pressure, and the Penn State pass catchers just couldn’t generate anything against the Buckeye secondary. OSU QB Kyle McCord connected with Marvin Harrison Jr 11 times for 162 yards and a TD, which added 16.8 expected points on offense. It seems like its back to the drawing board for James Franklin against Ohio State.

Oklahoma - UCF

Oklahoma came into this game 17 point favorites and looking to build off a Red Rivalry victory 2 weeks ago. UCF ended up making it a game, and at one point ended up taking the win probability lead away from Oklahoma, which is tough to do when you’re a double digit underdog heading into the game. In the end, a failed 2 point conversion attempt sealed the victory for Oklahoma. Neither team was particularly efficient, but Dillon Gabriel tossed 3 TD’s in his “revenge game” against UCF.

Alabama - Tennessee

Another week where the thought of Alabama declining becomes less and less true. Tennessee was up 20-7 at one point in this game, but they weren’t able to put Alabama away for good. Their demise was cemented when Jihaad Campbell recovered a Joe Milton fumble for 24 yards for a TD to put them ahead by 14 with 7 minutes left to go. Since the USF scare, Alabama has started to find its groove, and might be a LSU victory away from a ticket to the SEC Championship.

Minnesota - Iowa

This game closed with a point total of 30.5 points, which is the lowest FBS total since at least 1995. Not even the lowest total in my lifetime was enough, as the game only saw 22 points in an offensive day to forget. In pure Iowa fashion, they returned a punt for a TD and what would have most likely been the game winner, but an illegal fair catch signal wiped out the TD. Deacon Hill throws an INT 3 plays later, and the Golden Gophers walk away with the victory. Iowa is officially out of the playoff race, but the B1G West race is still in their control.

Texas - Houston

In another game that was a little closer than you would have wanted, Texas escapes with a victory against Houston, but it did come with a price. Quinn Ewers was injured in this game, and will miss some time with a shoulder injury. This paves the way for Maalik Murphy to start for Texas at QB, with Arch Manning waiting in the wings.

Virginia - North Carolina

The first notable upset of the week was Virginia, who has seen way more than their fair share of heartbreak both on and off the field, finally break through against a top 10 UNC team. Tarheels QB Drake Maye finished with a 50% completion percentage, but a lot of that had to do with 6 drops by the UNC pass catchers. This was a fantastic win for Tony Elliot and the Cavaliers program.

Utah - USC

The other notable upset of the week was Utah once again stifling Caleb Williams and the USC Trojans. Utah QB Bryson Barnes threw for 3 TD’s and added 15.68 expected points through the air, as well as rushing for another TD and adding 2.36 EPA. Caleb Williams wasn’t his usual Heisman self, but he did score a go ahead rushing TD with 1:46 left in the game. You would think that was enough to seal the victory, but alas the Trojan defense has another lapse and allows Utah to get into FG range to secure the victory. Since 2022, USCs defense ranks 121st in EPA/Play allowed. Thats how you don’t make the CFB playoffs with a generational QB.

FSU - Duke

While the postgame win expectancy shows FSU in a convincing win, it felt like the outcome of the game was in doubt for beginning of the contest when Duke QB Riley Leonard was in the game. His ankle was not 100% coming into the game, and a sack midway through the 3rd took him out of the game for good. That, plus a spark in the FSU offense via Jordan Travis legs helped pushed the Noles past the Blue Devils for good.

Washington - Arizona State

One key to upsets (or potential upsets in this case) is turnovers. Washington threw 2 INTs and fumbled the ball 2 more times, which resulted in over 18 expected points lost to turnovers. While they didn’t end up scoring an offensive TD, a barrage of FG’s + an 89 yard pick six by Mishael Powell was enough for Washington to survive an upset against Arizona State.

Power 5 QB Play

Group of 5 QB Play

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