Clustering the 2023 NFL Draft QBs Part 2: Similarity Scores and Comparisons
Comparing the 2023 QBs with prospects of the past
Last week, we got the ball rolling on our data analysis of the 2023 NFL Draft QB prospects by clustering a bunch of numbers together. While clustering takes our prospects and puts them into groups of similar prospects (based solely on numbers), we can take it step further by creating similarity scores that compare the 2023 prospects to individual prospects of the past.
Similarity scores are simply taking all of the numbers collected from the clustering project and measuring the relatedness to other prospects. This will give us a NFL comparison for our prospects. It should be noted that NFL comparisons don’t guarantee success/failure at the next level, and for the most part should be treated with a grain of salt. They are meant give us a connection of the unknown (how a prospect will play at the next level) with the known (how a past prospect plays at the next level).
The pool of prospects that will be compared to our 2023 prospects is from the 2017-2022 draft classes. Admittedly this isn’t the biggest pool of prospects. So, in addition to the similarity scores, we will use ESPN’s QBR data (dating back to the 2004 CFB season) to compare the 2023 prospects with QBs that played before or near the beginning of the College Football Playoff Era. With all that being said, let’s get some comparisons!
Bryce Young (Expected Draft Position (Grinding The Mocks): 1.9)
Bryce Young measured in at 5’10”, 204LBs at the NFL Draft Combine. While he did get over the 200LB mark, his listed weight at Alabama was 194LBs. In the modern NFL Draft era, QB’s under 200LBs don’t get selected in the first round. However, based on his Heisman winning college career, he will be the well deserved exception to this rule. Looking at his number comparisons, you see some of the best QBs the CFP era has produced thus far. The biggest difference between Young and the players on this list is Young had to do it with a supporting cast that was not what we typically see from an Alabama offense. Measuring supporting casts can be an article on its own, but one number that sticks out is how often Young was pressured vs. his Alabama counterparts:
% of dropbacks under pressure since 2017:
Bryce Young- 21.4%
Tua Tagovailoa - 13.7%
Mac Jones - 10.5%
QBs can sometimes bring pressure onto themselves by holding the ball, but even with that consideration Young was under fire a lot more than Tua and Mac. Having to work under pressure, or maneuver outside of the pocket and make a play was Young’s calling card at Alabama:
Bryce Young Pre-2017 comparison: Russell Wilson
In the NFL, Russell Wilson was able to put on more weight, but when he measured in at the 2012 combine he was listed at 5’11”, 204LBs, which is just an inch taller than Bryce Young. While Russell Wilson edged out Young in terms of passing and rushing EPA, Young was more efficient on a per play basis. The biggest difference between the two lies in Young’s ability to avoid taking sacks. A QBs ability to avoid sacks is one of the more stable metrics from college to the pro’s, and as we have seen in Russell Wilsons career, he has struggled with taking sacks.
It remains to be seen what Young playing weight ends up at in the NFL, but following a Russell Wilson career arc (minus last year) would make any team jump for joy. His hyper efficiency and ability to make All-NBA point guard level plays outside of the pocket is why he is expected to be the first overall pick to the Carolina Panthers.
CJ Stroud (Expected Draft Position: 3.2)
CJ Stroud and Bryce Young get the same players in their similarity scores, but the difference is Stroud’s similarity scores are higher, which means which his numbers were more similar to these prospects. We also saw this play out in the clustering article when we saw CJ Stroud in the highest tier while Bryce Young was grouped with the 2nd tier. In nearly every situation, CJ Stroud was efficient:
Now, I did say “nearly” every situation. Performing under pressure was the one area that stumped Stroud. Since 2021, he ranked in the 33rd percentile of PFF Grade under pressure, and that dropped to the 10th percentile in just 2022. His shakiness under pressure combined with the preconceived notion that he is not mobile enough made this comparison a popular one for him…
CJ Stroud Pre-2017 comparison: Jared Goff
In terms of Rushing EPA, Goff and Stroud are spot on. However, Stroud was far more efficient in college, and avoided sacks much more effectively than Goff. While Stroud didn’t take off as much in college, he ranked in the 74th percentile of pressure to sack rate in 2022. This shows Stroud does have enough mobility to move around the pocket and avoid taking sacks. He also showed off his mobility toward the end of the season vs. Northwestern and more famously in the CFP semifinal vs. Georgia.
Stroud finished his college career as a hyper efficient and accurate QB. While we saw a sprinkle of his mobility, it still remains to be seen what he can fully do with his legs. “A more mobile Jared Goff” feels like a good place for Stroud. If his accuracy translates to the next level and he can improve under pressure, we might have ourselves a franchise QB.
Anthony Richardson (Expected Draft Position: 5.6)
DeShone Kizer and Josh Allen were two prospects who had the size, strength and mobility, but suffered from accuracy issues. Kizer ended up washing out the NFL while Josh Allen is considered one of the two best QBs in the league with Patrick Mahomes. If you use those two as the range of outcomes for Anthony Richardson, your range essentially becomes every single outcome possible.
Anthony Richardson is the polarizing QB prospect this draft class. During the draft combine, Anthony Richard scored in the 99th percentile for QBs in: 40 yard dash, 10 yard split, vertical jump and broad jump. Oh, and he’s also 6’4”, 246 LBs. This was the best combine performance of any QB ever. On the field, we saw flashes of his athleticism through long rushing TD’s, and we saw him unleash his cannon arm from time to time. While his receivers did let him down from time to time with drops or miscommunications, accuracy still remains the biggest issue for Richardson.
When looking at the rate at which he was charted as throwing an “accurate” pass, he is much more comparable to Kizer than Allen. This is the biggest red flag for Richardson. The question now is: Is this something that is going to doom him? There are two thoughts that suggest that it might not.
The first being Richardson was only a one year stater and thus had one of the smallest sample sizes among QB prospects. Perhaps with more reps under his belt his accuracy would improve over time. Josh Allen is consistently the example when looking at QBs who greatly improved their accuracy, but you could also lump in QBs like Justin Herbert and even Patrick Mahomes in that mix.
The other thought comes from film review, where we can see that Richardson knows what he’s doing in terms of processing pre/post snap (This two tweet mini thread from The Athletics Nate Tice shows both).
https://twitter.com/Nate_Tice/status/1627002241113796608?s=20
So we have evidence he knows what he’s doing, and he has the physical tools to do it, can he put it all together on the biggest stage?
Anthony Richardson Pre-2017 comparison: Cam Newton
Cam Newton is a favorite comp to Richardson in due part to their measurables. On field, however, Newton’s year at Auburn far surpassed Richardsons year at Florida. While not shocking, we can see similarities in that both brought more value with their legs than their arms, and both rarely gave up EPA due to sacks.
Anthony Richardson has talked with dozens of NFL teams, is mocked to numerous teams, and his range of draft outcomes adds to the mystery of his draft profile. One thing is for certain: if you’re looking for the highest ceiling in this class, that rests solely with the man from Gainesville.
Will Levis (Expected Draft Position: 8.4)
Will Levis is the other polarizing QB in this draft class. Looking at his similarity scores, it doesn’t exactly inspire much confidence, although Daniel Jones has now found himself in the prestigious 2nd contract and beyond club. While non of the guys on the list are world beaters at the next level, they have all stuck around the league which is still very much an accomplishment. If draft profiles were seen as political campaigns, Will Levis platform opts for more off field points than on the field performance. The one noteworthy point on his on field performance: he is able to deliver catchable passes whether in a clean pocket or under pressure:
Levis draft stock runs on two main points: his physical tools and his experience in modern NFL offenses. Levis doesn’t just have a cannon for an arm, he has a bazooka. His offensive coordinator in 2021 was Liam Coen, who was the OC for the Los Angeles Rams in 2022. His OC in 2022 was Rich Scangarello, who has years of NFL experience including as OC of the Broncos in 2019. The Sean McVay/Shanahan offenses are all the rage in the NFL, and Levis boosts more experience than any of the other QBs in this class. If you’ve been a draft fan long enough, tools/experience sounds a little like…
Will Levis Pre-2017 comparison: Ryan Tannehill
If you go back and watch the part of the draft before Tannehill is selected at 8 to the Dolphins (which can be found here), you hear a lot about his experience with Mike Sherman (then OC of the Dolphins) and his physical ability. Looking at their numbers in college, they are nearly identical in everything with the exception of EPA lost to sacks. Levis struggled to avoid sacks, finishing 137th/155 in pressure to sack rate in 2022, and 83rd/146 in 2021. Now, was this entirely Levis fault? One could argue his supporting cast was lacking in 2022 after players like Wan’Dale Robinson left for the NFL. Still, that number is concerning when looking at how it translate to the next level.
Ryan Tannehill and Daniel Jones both made it to second contracts, and both have advanced in the playoffs. Ryan Tannehill is actually 2nd in the EPA/CPOE Composite since 2019 (rbsdm.com). While his numbers are concerning, his comps show there are paths to being a productive QB at the next level.
We did it! We have recent and older comparisons for each of the top 4 QBs in the 2023 NFL Draft class. While this class isn’t “greatest of all time”, it is shaping up to be much stronger than last years. Each of the top four QB’s have clear paths/comps that show NFL success, but each also have certain questions that could potentially prevent them from succeeded. The draft might be more of a crapshoot than some would care to admit, I still had a ton of fun diving into the prospects. All that is left to do is sit back and watch the chaos unfold Thursday night.
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