2024 CFB Consensus Preseason Power Ratings
Its almost football time!
In less than a month’s time, toes will meet leather and the 2024 college football season will be gracing our television screens. If you’re just coming back from the offseason and are wondering who is supposed to be good this year, you’re in the right place! Today we’re going to create a consensus preseason power rating out of various preseason power rating systems currently out there. Knowing my luck, some of these systems may have had a final August update before the season. I can’t imagine the consensus would change that much, but if it does I will be sure to update the top 25 before the season starts at the end of August.
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CFBNumbers Preseason Power Ratings
Everyone who creates preseason power ratings has their own techniques and adds their own flair to it, but they all essentially run on similar components.
Historical Performance or Efficiency: With the addition of the transfer portal, teams can change their roster rather quickly, but it is still important to include some sort of past performance component. For my ratings, I used a Net Expected Points Added (Offensive EPA - Defensive EPA) component that goes back to the 2021 season.
Opponent/Conference/P4 Adjustment: We are now up to 134 FBS teams with the addition of Kennesaw State to Conference USA. That is a ton of teams! Raw metrics will only get you part of the way in CFB, the biggest key is figuring out how to adjust those metrics to account for the enormous variance in schedules. My preseason ratings take into account a teams 2024 schedule of opponents, as well as if they’re in the Power 4 (RIP Pac-12) or not.
Some way to gauge the current season’s roster: This is where the biggest differences happen between preseason ratings in my opinion. Some systems use returning roster production (ESPNs FPI and Bill Connelly’s SP+) while others, like my ratings, use preseason win totals adjusted for odds. Some systems will even use recruiting ratings to judge how talented a roster is going into the current season.
Consensus ratings in sports are some of the best metrics out there in my opinion. They deploy the “wisdom of the crowds” strategy, where the crowds in this case is some of the smartest minds in college football, along with my not as smart self. For these ratings, we will be combining the following preseason ratings to create a consensus preseason power rating:
My own ratings (The graph above)
ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI)
KFord Power Ratings (@KFordRatings on Twitter/X)
Bud Davis’ Win Total Preseason Power Ratings (@JBudDavis)
The result will be a rating that shows how many points a team is above an average FBS team on a neutral field.
2024 Top 25 Consensus Preseason Power Rating
Georgia comes out on top in these consensus preseason power ratings. They currently have the best odds to win the national championship on Draftkings (+300), and return Carson Beck, who is arguably QB1 in the 2025 NFL Draft QB class. I believe you could argue that Ohio State deserves to be in the top spot, but that would be the only team rivaling Georgia for the top spot. The rest of the top 4 includes Oregon, led by transfer QB Dillion Gabriel, and Texas, who fell one game short of the national championship last season.
Much has been made about the B1G and SEC forming a “Power 2” out of the Power 4 conferences this offseason. Looking at the consensus top 25, you can see the list is packed with teams from those conferences, with 13 of the top 16 hailing from those conferences. The ACC comes up next with 5 teams in the preseason top 25, while the Big 12 rounds out the power 4 with 4 teams in the top 25.
Power 4 Conference Ratings
Looking at the consensus power ratings by conference, we can see the SEC and B1G lead the way in average power rating. This is due in part to the heavy hitters in each conference dragging the average forward. The ACC and Big 12 have a smaller range of power ratings, which should lead to some intense conference races in November.
If we go by these consensus ratings, the top 4 seeds in the new 12 team playoff would be: 1. Georgia (1st in consensus power ratings), 2. Ohio State (2nd) , 3. Florida State (11th), 4. Kansas State (17th). The first round playoffs would be these games (Assuming im getting the playoff rules right):
5) Oregon vs. 12. Boise State (49th in consensus rating)
6) Texas vs. 11. LSU
7) Alabama vs. 10. Michigan
8) Penn State vs. 9) Notre Dame
Non Power 4 Conference Ratings
*Sorry Notre Dame!*
Here are the non Power 4 conferences. The 5th highest ranked conference champion will earn an automatic bid to the playoffs, but they can be ranked anywhere from 5 to 12. Based on expectations, it would appear that team will most likely be the 12th seed more often than not. Using the consensus preseason power ratings, Boise State would earn that distinction as the highest rated non Power 4 conference champion. As we go through the season, teams like Memphis and Liberty will be teams that join Boise State as that potential 5th conference champion. If you look at the power ratings of these three teams against the power ratings of the potential 5 seed teams (Oregon, Texas, Alabama) plus a couple points for home field advantage, we could see that first round playoff game approach a 21 point betting line.
Strength of Schedule
Here are the consensus power ratings along with a teams strength of schedule. Regardless of whose power ratings you gravitate towards, you will see Liberty with the easiest strength of schedule and Florida holding the spot for hardest. To get an idea just how hard Florida’s schedule is, this is what they have to contend with post Halloween:
Using the consensus ratings, they play the 1st, 4th, 9th, 10th and 11th ranked teams in consecutive order. Only two of those games will be played in Gainesville. Our good friend Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) estimates that Florida will come away with just 1.32 expected wins during this stretch.
https://x.com/KFordRatings/status/1808244360527728909
Top Games Of 2024
The last thing we can do with these ratings is plan out which games appear to be the “best” in the 2024 season. By “best” I mean these are the games that rank in the 90+ percentile in both the average rating of both teams and how close the teams ratings are to each other. The goal here was to find the highest and closest rated teams which should in theory deliver those CFB classics we know and love. These are listed in order by week, starting in week 4 with Oklahoma Tennessee. Personally? I can’t WAIT for the Oregon Ohio State Big Ten showdown. Its hard to see that game falling short of the lofty hype that will surely be surrounding it that week.
That is the consensus preseason power ratings! We should now have a solid base for our expectations on how the 2024 season will unfold. As I said before, some of these preseason ratings will most likely have one more update before the season. If the consensus ratings shift in any radical way I will send a note with a fresh top 25 rankings list. We are almost at opening kick ladies and gentlemen!
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