A QB Numbers Adventure: Heisman Contenders
Looking into the numbers behind the heisman favorites
There are a lot of ways to be successful as a college football team, but nearly all of them involve good to elite QB play. When you’re looking to get a start on which teams will be good in the upcoming season, looking at who will be under center is a great place to start. The slower paced summer is a great place to do a number dive, so let’s get out that summer lemonade and look at the QBs expected to be at the very top in 2023-2024.
Early 2023 Heisman Contenders
Whether you actually place wagers or not, the betting market can be one of the best sources of data when searching for team strength or QBs to put on our radar. Looking at early odds to win the Heisman, we can see its current Heisman trophy winner Caleb Williams vs. the field. At this time last season, Williams was +900 (If you bet $100 you would have won $900) which calculates out to a 10% implied probability. For the purposes of this article, we will consider the “contenders” to be the top 5 players on this list (Williams, Travis, Maye, Hartman and Nix).
For each QB, we will use public data to look at their efficiency (Expected Points Added based metrics), explosiveness, and how they handle the negatives (sacks and turnovers) to see where they can possibly improve from impressive 2022 seasons. The metrics will be ordered by year over year stability, which means metrics at the top (Success Rate, or % of plays that go for positive EPA) are less volatile and typically won’t change as much while metrics at the bottom (EPA lost on turnovers) can change drastically year over year.
Caleb Williams
Similar to who he is often compared to (Patrick Mahomes), it is very hard to find EPA based metrics where Caleb Williams isn’t at or near the top. If you want to hoist the trophy in December, Williams is the man to beat this season. While the Trojans will be losing receiving production from Jordan Addison, they still rank 14th overall in Bill Connelly’s (ESPN) returning production metric for 2023.
Its nearly impossible to improve on his 2022 season, but one thing that could drag him down is taking more sacks. In 2022, Williams took 30 sacks, which was T-22nd highest in the country. When it comes to pressure and taking sacks, QB’s tend to have the most control as they control how long they hold the football. No QB in the Power 5 last season held the ball long than Caleb did. While he is above average at avoiding those costly sacks, that could be a spot where he loses some efficiency this upcoming season.
Drake Maye
Drake Maye exploded onto the scene in 2022, ranking 4th in the nation in passing yards (4,289) and 6th in TD passes (37). Taking the reins from Sam Howell was never going to be an easy feat, but Drake Maye made it look effortless.
Drake Maye wasn’t turnover prone despite the 5th percentile showing on EPA lost to turnovers. Maye’s 2.6% turnover-worthy play rate (PFF) was good for 26th best in the FBS. However, when he did turn the ball over it came with some hefty EPA penalties. For example, in the ACC championship game against Clemson, Maye threw a interception that was returned 98 yards for a TD, costing Maye 10 points in Expected points. 3 of his INTs (including that pick six) occurred inside the opposing teams 30 yard line, which is a high expected point area for the offense. This should be an easy area of improvement for Maye, unless the bad luck begins to strike again.
Jordan Travis
As a FSU alum, it has been such a pleasure to see Jordan Travis grow from a transfer QB that was as raw of a passer as you could be into a well rounded superstar QB. Last season Jordan Travis earned a 91.3 PFF Offense Grade, which was good for 3rd in the FBS. In terms of EPA/Play, Jordan Travis was one of the most efficient QBs in the nation, particularly on early downs. Late down play is a bit more unstable and can really vary based on if the offense is in a 3rd and short vs. a 3rd and long situation, so he could see some improvement to his overall efficiency if a few more late downs are converted.
The most interesting thing about Travis’ 2022 season is the elite EPA/Play numbers while his success rate only reached the 75th percentile. This possibly signals an over reliance on explosive plays. One way we can check is looking at his median EPA/play, which would take out his very highest and lowest plays based on EPA. When we compare to his average EPA, we can see how he stands out from the other top QBs in the country. While explosive plays are needed to win games, an over reliance on them can spell trouble if defenses hone in on stopping them (like if a defense puts two safeties deep to prevent deep passes).
Sam Hartman
Traditionally Wake Forest football isn’t “must watch TV”, but in the Sam Hartman era it was non stop high flying action. Since 2021, Sam Hartman’s 12.7 average depth of target (how far the ball traveled across the line of scrimmage) led 148 FBS QBs with 500 or more dropbacks. In other words: Hartman was throwing bombs all game. Hartman led the Demon Deacons to new heights both as an offense and as a team, but now he has taken his talents to South Bend and the Fighting Irish.
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room. Turnovers have been an issue for Hartman in his time at Wake Forest. His 26 INTs lead all FBS QBs since 2021. While I would like to say they have all been low EPA INTs, possible hail merry’s before halftime, that is sadly not the case:
However, when you look at the highs of his play, he is right up there with the first two picks of the 2022 NFL Draft Bryce Young and CJ Stroud. While turnovers can be costly to an offense, we can’t ignore the potential ceiling in Hartman. In the right offense, Hartman could be the program carrying QB that Notre Dame has been desperately looking for quite some time.
Bo Nix
A change of scenery can be good every so often, which was very much the case when it comes to Bo Nix. The former Auburn turned Oregon Duck finished 4th in ESPN’s QBR metric, and finished in the 90th percentile of nearly everything on this graph. In addition to his stellar EPA metrics, Nix finished 8th in the country in turnover-worthy play rate (1.7%), and 6th in pressure to sack rate (6.5%). One thing Nix will have to contend with is Oregon ranking 54th in returning production, and the loss of OC Kenny Dillingham to Arizona State. Still, a few more explosive plays and a little bit more turnover luck and Nix could be right in the thick of the Heisman race.
Those are the Heisman contenders! Later on in the summer we will use these metrics to try and identify any potential QB sleepers that would take CFB by storm.
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