CFB Analytics: Week 0 Recap
College Football is BACK!
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, BOYS AND GIRLS, COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS BACK!!!
Okay, so I know it is “week 0” and the matchups may not pack a punch, but college football is back on our TV’s! Week 0 is a chance for fans to get back into their Saturday CFB routines and, for those not playing or betting, enjoy some stress free college football. Let’s look back at some of the notable games this opening weekend!
*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
Illinois 30 - Nebraska 22
Happy Scott Frost day everyone! In our first contest of the year, Illinois upsets Nebraska as the home underdog, as 4th year HC Scott Frost’s seat heats up to record high temperatures. In typical Nebraska fashion, they actually won the post game probability battle at 55.5% (this basically means based on what happened in the game, Nebraska would be expected to win 55.5% of the time). You can even see it in the advanced stats as Nebraska also won the EPA battle.
Illinois had a good game through the air, notching 0.125 expected points per pass, but that is where the positives stop. At 1.04 explosiveness (EPA on Successful plays), it was more of a methodical approach for Illinois.
It didn’t take many plays for Artur Sitkowski to show his presence on the field. At 0.283 EPA/Play, he was the top QB performer for the game. It’s only week 0 and it was Nebraska, but Sitkowski could be a QB to keep an eye on as he tries to bring a level of QB play Illinois fans are dying to see.
Adrian Martinez was expected to take the next step forward this year and lead Nebraska back on the right track. After one game we can see his presence in the rushing game, notching 12.79 expected points on the ground. Unfortunately his rushing performance was overshadowed by a poor performance through the air, which included a dropback that resulted in a scoop and score fumble TD for Illinois. Its still early for Martinez and Nebraska, but an 0-1 start is nothing short of a nightmare.
UCLA 44 - Hawaii 10
Chip Kelly and the UCLA Bruins start off strong with a rout over the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. At a 99.8% post game win probability, this game was soundly in UCLA’s control the entire time. Offensively at 5.9 yards per play and 0.09 EPA/play, not exactly lighting up anyones eyes. The bigger headline was on the defensive side of the ball, where UCLA forced 2 INT’s and held Hawaii to -0.293 EPA/Play.
Hawaii could not do a single thing on the ground, and were stuffed at the line of scrimmage on 26.7% of rushes. Traditionally we are use to seeing some potent Hawaii offensives, so it will be interesting to see HC Todd Graham adjust his strategy for the rest of the season.
The only QB with positives numbers is the QB we were all interested in watching coming into this game: Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Not too many actionable plays for DTR, but in a tune up game for LSU that was expected. Positive EPA through the air is always something you want to see to start the season. At 1.172 explosiveness they really didn’t press it down the field, which again is totally fine because tune up game. All eyes will be on DTR in their showdown with LSU next week.
Fresno State 45 - UConn 0
Our final week 0 notable game was also not much of a contest. At 99.8% post game win probability, Fresno State was in cruise control. The Fresno State defense held the UConn offense to a 16.7% success rate, and they lost almost half of a point in expected points every time they dropped back to pass. They had negative explosiveness! Perhaps it is a combination of putrid offense and elite defense, either way it is hard to find worse offensive performances.
Fresno State was successful on about half of their offensive plays, and did more damage through the air than on the ground. At 1.63 explosiveness, thats in the range of high octane highlight play offenses. The Fresno State offensive line deserves the MVP award for this game, as they didn’t allow a single stuffed run and averaged 4.9 OL yards per play. To put that into perspective: think of OL yards as more or less a GPA. If you’re in the 3-4 range, you leave the game quite happy. Anything less and your RB is probably taking a longer ice bath than usual. THEY GOT UP TO 4.9!
Allow me to introduce you to your CFB national leader in QB EPA/Play, Jake Haener (let me have his moment in the sun people!). Explosive through the air and on his 2 rushes, Haener had himself a ballgame. Year 2 for Mr. Haener starts off as good as you could possibly hope, but tougher opponents await the bulldogs.
Week 0 is a time for you to shake off your CFB rust, maybe try out some new recipes for future tailgates, and just get back into the mood for college football. Yes the football might not be the best example of CFB we have to offer. But its better than nothing!
I hope you enjoyed this little recap. I will be doing these and keeping it to notable games throughout the week. As I stated above, if you ever want to see more of a specific team, or just wanted a box score for a game, shoot me a message!
If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!
If you want to see more charts and one off analysis, follow my twitter page, @CFBNumbers