College Football Analytics: Power 5 QB Rankings

Pulling up our bootstraps to get some QB rankings!

I hope you’re sitting down when I deliver this news… THERE IS COLLEGE FOOTBALL THIS MONTH! We’re so close to season people, we have made it! To celebrate the upcoming season, let’s look at the QB’s we’re slated to see this season. There are a lot of faces in new places this college football thanks to our good friend the transfer portal. This can give teams an entirely different direction and optimism for the future if their transfer QB succeeds in their new spot.

There are also a lot of new QB’s on the scene, especially at the top of the food chain. Alabama, Clemson AND Ohio State will all be breaking in QB’s that are not on the forthcoming graphs because they either : A. Haven’t played a down of college football or B. Didn’t meet the minimum game and pass attempt requirements.

As always numbers will be our driving force for these rankings. To get our rankings we used Bayesian Bootstrapping to calculate the uncertainty behind average Total Expected Points Added (EPA) per game. Essentially this gives us an idea of each QB’s floor and ceiling for any given game.

First up… The ACC!

ACC

Along with Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei, you will most likely see D’Eriq King and Sam Howell battle it out for first team All-ACC QB. Currently the preseason first team All ACC QB is Sam Howell, who many expect to be in the conversation for top QB in the 2022 NFL Draft. D’Eriq King suffered a torn ACL and the end of the 2020 season, but all signs point to him being healthy for the start of the season against Alabama.

Overall there is plenty of QB talent to watch in the ACC. From Malik Cunningham to Jeff Sims, there is plenty of storylines to go around in the conference. I might be biased but the return of McKenzie Milton might be the most interesting QB headline to watch in the conference. The model does not know Milton injured his knee and sat out for two years. However, when he was healthy (and if he can stay healthy) he can provide a level of QB play FSU has not seen since 2014.

SEC

Alabama will be breaking in a new QB in former 5 star Bryce Young, so sitting atop the list is Matt Corral, main conductor of the Lane Train. Despite some wild moments including multiple INT games, Matt Corral consistently provides his team with positive EPA performances that allow the offense to score points at will.

New to the conference is former VT QB Hendon Hooker. Couple his consistently positive performances with new Head Coach Josh Huepel’s offense (aka the everyone go deep offense) and you might see some explosive performances.

You may hear people talk about Missouri and how they are a sneaky good team this year. The reason why is Connor Bazelak. Posting a .500 record in an odd 2020 season, Missouri could see the next step forward if they can continue to see elite performances from Bazelak.

Big 12

We have our first wacky moment folks! Before we bring out the pitchforks let us analyze why Tyler Shough is ahead of Spencer Rattler. As you can see from the line range, Shough’s range of performances is much wider than Rattlers. Which means Rattler has a higher floor, while Shough has the higher ceiling. Of course coming from Oregon to Texas Tech could limit that ceiling if TTU fails to utilize Shough to the best of his abilities.

Immediately following Rattler you have Brock Purdy, who can set himself nice in the Draft if he can lead his team to heights never seen before at Iowa State. That leads us to… Kansas! UNT transfer Jason Bean has a wide range of outcomes, which coupled with a new head coaching staff could lead to some roller coaster performances. If new HC Lance Leopold can get some of those high ceiling performances from Bean, we could be talking about a potential Kansas upset in the future.

Big 10

Justin Fields exiting the conference gives us a bunch of new contenders for top QB in the league. The two favorites have to be Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan and Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr, who looks to rebound from his injury in order to leave Indiana back into the Big Ten title game conversation.

Purdue apparently has 4 QB’s battling it out for the starting QB job, and at least two of them have experience stringing together positive EPA performances. Aidan O’Connell gets the nod in these rankings due to a higher floor, but don’t expect Jack Plummer to go down without a fight.

Remember when Graham Mertz light up the night sky against Illinois, averaging a 100th percentile worthy 1+ EPA/Play? Good times, Badger fans. After coming down to the planet Earth Mertz seems to be a bit of wildcard heading into the season. Will we see elite Mertz? Or more struggles coming from the highly touted sophomore?

Pac 12

The Pac-12 is the poster child for QB transfers this season. From Air Force turned Stanford QB Isaiah Sanders, all the down to Tennessee turned Washington State QB Jarrett Guarantano, there are a lot of new faces to the conference. Leading the way is a non QB transfer, potential first round draft pick Kedon Slovis. Turning in stellar performances of 10+EPA per game, Kedon can bring back some of USC’s national presence if he continues to progress into a legitimate day 1 draft pick.

The biggest roller coaster is Isaiah Sanders, who will be transitioning into a non triple option offense at Stanford. His range of outcomes was already wide, but throwing in a new offensive system could push the boundaries of those confidence intervals.

One of my favorite QB’s to watch this season is ASU’s Jayden Daniels. Given the turmoil behind the scenes at ASU, I am not sure how that will affect their on the field performance. Nevertheless Jaylen Daniels has a chance to take the next step forward in his growth and could potentially play himself into the draft conversation.

There are countless QB headlines this 2021 College Football season. From QB transfers to freshman QB making their college debut, you won’t have to look far to find some interesting storylines this season. These “rankings” represent the range of outcomes we can expect to see from these QB’s this season. It should be noted that these floors and ceilings are made of glass, they can easily be broken in either direction. Hopefully for your team’s sake, they don’t fall thru the floor, but rather bust through the ceiling!

If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!

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Thumbnail photo courtesy of Getty Images