College Football Analytics: Predicting The Week 12 CFP Rankings
Aced last weeks rankings... can we do it again?
As with everyone installment of the College Football Playoff Rankings since its inception, there was plenty of drama to go around when the initial rankings released two weeks ago. In the initial rankings Cincinnati was left on the outside looking in of the top 4 and Wake Forest and Oklahoma were undefeated but stuck down in the 8-9 position. In the release last week Michigan was ranked ahead of Michigan State despite the latter beating the former.
On the surface this week might be a little drama light as the only team in the top 10 that suffered a loss was Oklahoma. However, we have to remember that this is televised and given its own 30 minute TV special. They want drama, so let’s fish out any potential drama by predicting where each team will sit when the rankings are released.
Review of Last Week’s Predictions
For our first time predicting the rankings, we did a pretty good job getting the top teams. 12 of the 25 spots were predicted correctly, and the only real misses were at most two spots off. The bottom of the rankings will always be a little off because we don’t really have a good way of predicting who will enter at the bottom of the rankings. We did have Mississippi State, Kentucky, Minnesota and Fresno State leaving the rankings more often than not, so I am ok with those results.
Week 12 CFP Rankings Predictions
Here are the predictions for this week. Not much changes at the top, but as you can see by the ranges of Michigan and Michigan State, we could see a little committee backtrack. Perhaps the committee heard the calls and decided that Michigan State beating Michigan should be the deciding factor on which team is ranked higher.
Once you get past the top 7, we start to see a little bit more uncertainty than we did last week. Specifically the 10 to 14 spots, where you have 4 teams that played each other this past weekend. Baylor knocked off Oklahoma and Ole Miss beat Texas A&M, and according to my rankings the winner of each matchup is higher than the loser. However, when you look at the ranges, you can see a potential Michigan-Michigan State scenario brewing. This week is going to be a big test for the committee in regards to how they handle head to head results.
Goodbyes and Hellos
Last week we correctly predicted the arrival of the UTSA Roadrunners, but that was pretty much it. Purdue, Utah and Arkansas were the other teams that entered the rankings. I only included teams with 0 or 1 losses last week, which boiled it down to exclusively Group of 5 teams. I had assumed the committee might throw the G5 a bone given Cincinnati’s top 4 exclusion, but I assumed incorrectly.
This week I expanded the range to 3 or fewer losses. Personally I believe Houston should get the nod, as they have put together a quietly stellar season and deserve more recognition. However, don’t be shocked if a team like Clemson or even Kansas State make their way into the top 25.
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