College Football Analytics: Week 11 Recap

Entering the home stretch of CFB... is your team bowl eligible?

After an unexpected bye week last week, we are back and better than ever. We are getting into the home stretch of CFB, where bowl bids are solidified and conference championship spots are punched. Let’s recap the games of week to see where we stand.

*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.

USC - Colorado

USC handles its business against Colorado to get to 9-1 on the season. Superstar QB Caleb Williams had 3 passing TD’s to go along with 2 rushing TD’s. As you will see in a second, USC is now the only Pac-12 team with only 1 loss and is the conferences last remaining chance at a playoff bid. They still have UCLA/ND and the Pac 12 championship to go, so its not going to be easy for the Trojans. Still, year 1 of the Lincoln Riley era is starting off stronger than expected.

Washington - Oregon

Despite winning the post game win expectancy battle, Washington comes away with the victory and dashes the Ducks hope of a potential playoff bid. Some may point to a failed 4th down attempt that cost Oregon the game, but me personally I point to them allowed Penix to throw from almost 1 EPA per pass attempt. Coming into the game, Oregon ranked 123rd in the country in Pass EPA allowed on defense. The pass defense ultimately couldn’t get the stops they needed, and Oregon is officially out of the playoff race.

Arizona - UCLA

The final one loss Pac-12 team that saw their playoff hopes ended was UCLA, who lost a surprising game to Arizona. Overall Arizona is not very good, but QB Jayden De Laura is a fun rollercoaster type player to watch every week. He ranks in the top 25 in both Big Time Plays and Turnover Worthy Plays for QBs (PFF). While many focus on the negatives, the positives give you a high enough ceiling to have performances like this. He finished with 315 yards, 2 TD’s and a 83.2 QBR. That was enough to get it done against the Bruins, who are still 8-2 on the season but nevertheless out of the playoff.

Tulane - UCF

The group of 5 game of the week saw the Citronauts of Central Florida take a hold of the top rated G5 race by beating the previously one loss Tulane Green Wave. In his first game back from injury, Nauts QB John Rhys Plumlee added 17 EPA on the ground by way of 176 yards and 2 TD’s. Tulane was efficient in the game, but defensively they couldn’t stop the Nauts. UCF will now be the highest rated group of 5 team, and has the inside track on the coveted NY6 Bowl berth.

LSU - Arkansas

The numbers on this game aren’t exactly pretty, but this was the Harold Perkins game. The freshman Linebacker for LSU finished with 8 solo tackles, 4 sacks, 4 tackles for loss and a forced fumble. There is nothing more exciting to watch than a defender take over a game and look unstoppable for all four quarters. Overall, not a great performance for the Tigers, but they get the win, Harold Perkins becomes a household name, and the Tigers clinch a spot in the SEC championship in year one of the Brian Kelly era.

Alabama - Ole Miss

This game felt like Ole Miss was in control for most of the contest, and post game win expectancy agrees. Ultimately the Crimson Tide get the victory to move to 8-2 on the season, but the win also helped LSU clinch the SEC west. Its been a “struggle” for the Tide this year, but they should still lock up a trip to a NY6 assuming the Iron Bowl doesn’t produce chaos (foolish thinking, I know).

North Carolina 36 - Wake Forest 34

UNC Wake Forest has recently turned into a fun shootout that matters for ACC positioning. This year was no different with the Tarheels winning the offensive slugfest to get to 9-1 on the season. Young superstar QB Drake Maye added 448 yards and 3 TD’s to his heisman worthy season. He currently ranks 1st in EPA, and 4th in ESPN’s QBR this season. Georgia Tech and NC State are all that is left for UNC before a showdown with Clemson in the ACC championship. If they can remain a one loss ACC champion… a playoff berth is not out of the realm of possibility.

Vanderbilt - Kentucky

THE VANDERBILT COMMODORES HAVE WON A SEC GAME LADIES AND GENTLEMEN!!! Vanderbilt upsets Kentucky to get to 4-6 on the season. While that isn’t great in the grand scheme of things, Vanderbilt is one of the hardest places to win. Clark Lea certainly has the program going in the right direction, and thats something to celebrate if you’re a Commodores fan. If there is one word to describe Will Levis and Kentucky this year, its disappointing. However, everything can be erased next week if you do the impossible and upset the Georgia Bulldogs.

TCU - Texas

TCU was in control for the majority of this game, but a fumble return touchdown kept the Longhorns within striking distance. Ultimately the Horned Frogs came out victorious and remain unbeaten on the season at 10-0. The biggest question to come from the playoff rankings is whether the committee will keep TCU in the top 4 if they keep winning. They’re in now, so you’d think they’d remain in, but we’ve seen it happen before, so you never really know.

Florida State - Syracuse

Ending this week by showing love to the alma mater. Florida State cruises to their 7th win of the season against Syracuse. This is the first time FSU has 7 wins in the regular season since 2016, and they’re doing it in style. Since coming off a bye week in week 8, the Noles are 2nd in Net EPA (offensive EPA-Defensive EPA) among all Power 5 teams. Expectations hovered around 7 wins in the preseason, and that has been met with two regular season games to spare. Louisiana is up next, followed by the classic post Thanksgiving bout with the Gators. Feels pretty good to be a Seminole right now!

Power 5 QB Play

Group of 5 QB Play

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