College Football Playoff Semifinals: Advanced Stats Preview
Previewing the New Year's Eve Semifinal Games
The College Football Playoffs have finally arrived this Friday, with Alabama set to take on Cincinnati in the Cotton Bowl and Georgia going against Michigan in the Orange Bowl. Before we get to the fun and festivities, we can look at some advanced stats to get an idea of what we are getting ourselves into this weekend. There are countless numbers and metrics that you can use to gauge a team’s capabilities, which can result in a lot of confusion. For this article, we will be taking the onion approach to number analysis: start big and peel back layers until we get the information we need.
Betting Overview
Even if you don’t partake in sports betting, looking at the betting lines can give you an insightful first look at a matchup. Using the spread and over/under point total, we can get the implied points for each team. According to the betting markets, both games seem to be uneven matchups where the SEC team is the heavy betting favorite. The College Football Playoff has seen its fair share of blowout semifinal games, and by the looks of it we could be adding more of those games to the collection.
Now that we know what the betting markets think of these matchups, the question becomes how do the underdogs potentially pull out the upset? This is when we start getting into the digits. First things first, a statistical overview of each playoff teams seasons:
Statistical Overview
Offensively, each of the 4 playoff teams are around the same in terms of Expected Points Added per Play. How they came to these efficient offenses is where the playoff teams differ. For Alabama and Cincinnati, they relied more on explosive plays while Michigan and Georgia were less explosive and relied more on consistent, efficient offensive play.
On the other side of the ball, you can clearly see which defense stands above the rest. Georgia has enjoyed an elite level defense all season, leading the country in EPA/Play allowed, success rate allowed and explosive play rate allowed. Cincinnati has a great defense in its own right, but Georgia has been in a league of its own this season. Michigan and Alabama have good defenses, but they have relied more on their offensive unit to put away teams.
The next layer to peel back is to look at offensive vs. defensive units in order to see if there are any matchups that could be exploited in the games on Friday.
Cotton Bowl Matchup Preview
The Crimson Tide passing attack, led by Heisman trophy winner Bryce Young vs. the Bearcat secondary led by “Sauce” Gardner and Coby Bryant. The Bearcat secondary has been elite at containing the passing game, as well as limiting explosive passes. While we do have to wonder about the quality of passing offenses on Cincinnati’s schedule, we also know that there are multiple members of the Bearcat secondary who will be playing football on Sundays. Bryce Young, Jameson Williams, and NFL caliber DB’s. Hope you have your popcorn ready!
Teams typically run when they amass a lead in the second half, which would be something to expect if the Crimson Tide put points on the board early into this matchup. The question is, can they sustain their lead with their rushing attack? Alabama didn’t really run the ball well this season, ranking nearly last in the country with a 16.4% explosive play rate. The Cincinnati defense should be able to contain the Alabama rushing attack if this scenario occurs, and it will be on their offense to dig themselves out of the hypothetical deficit.
Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder has been considered a potential NFL prospect this entire season. The expectations were he would take another step forward, and cement his status as a QB1 worthy pick. As you will recall from our QB composite score analysis, Ridder finished 30th in the country in the QB composite score, highlighted by a 91 offensive PFF grade and 75.4 QBR. These numbers are good, but not necessarily elite. He will have to be elite if the Bearcats wish to make this a contest. The Crimson Tide pass defense was good, but has some vulnerabilities, namely their ability to contain explosive passes. Ridder will need to hit a couple explosive passes in order to keep up with Bryce Young and the Tide.
The Cincinnati rushing attack vs. the Alabama rush defense should be a prizefight worthy matchup. The Crimson Tide have been elite at stopping the run, while Cincinnati has thrived at pounding the rock. We may not see this matchup very often if the Bearcats find themselves down, but it will be something to keep note of during this game.
Orange Bowl Preview
Our second semifinal matchup is the game betting markets view as the tighter contest: the Michigan Wolverines vs. the Georgia Bulldogs. The Georgia defense has been an elite buzzsaw for the entire season, minus the SEC Championship. Even with the loss, the Bulldog defense is still the best pass defense in the country, limiting teams to a meager 19.2% explosive pass rate. I guess you could say the weakness of the defense is in their rush defense, but ranking 11th in the nation in EPA/Rush would hardly be considered a weakness.
Michigans offense doesn’t do anything really well, but also doesn’t do anything really bad. They seem to float in the top half of most metrics, minus passing explosive play rate. Michigan does see half of their runs go for “successful” plays, so if they can keep the game close they could be able to see some rushing success against the Bulldogs. If they get behind early and have to pass their way back into the game, you can pretty much write off any sort of comeback.
Despite all the noise surrounding the Georgia QB position, Stetson Bennett has been very efficient this season, ranking 5th in the nation in the QB Composite score. However, we do have to take into account a lot of that efficiency came while leading the game, which became evident in the SEC Championship when Georgia had to pass their way back into the game. The Wolverine pass defense has been pretty good this season, and should give Bennett all he can handle while avoiding Heisman finalist DE Aidan Hutchinson.
Michigan should be able to contain the Bulldog rushing attack that wasn’t great at generating explosive rushing plays. This could be something to keep track of if Georgia finds itself needing to rush out the clock. A high rushing success rate coupled with a low explosive play rate signals a lot of gritty low yardage runs in key situations. The matchup of the Michigan DL vs. the Georgia OL will be something to watch throughout the game.
Key Takeaways
If Cincinnati can hit a couple explosive passes, they could make some noise as a 13.5 point underdog.
Bryce Young vs. NFL caliber DBs. This will be a test for the young Heisman winning QB, and could cement his status as the best QB in College Football
Michigan needs to find some success rushing the football early. If they start to loose traction in the game, they may not be able to dig themselves out of the hole.
All eyes on Stetson Bennett. Can he perform against a good Michigan secondary?
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