Diamond In The Rough: Using Strength of Schedule To Find Potential Breakout QBs
Which QBs are up next?
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One of the best stories in college football is the breakout QB story. There have been plenty of QBs to choose from in recent years, from Joe Burrow in 2019, Kenny Pickett in 2022 or even Drake Maye last season. When QBs breakout, especially at non powerhouse programs, we see those programs reach new heights. A prime example is UTSA going 23-5 in the last two years after Frank Harris figured it all out. As we are just about a month away from the 2023 season, let’s do a little data exploration to see if we can identify some potential breakout QBs.
The Game Plan
As the title suggests, we will be using a type of strength of schedule to see which QBs have a softer schedule that could catapult them into the upper echelon of QBs. Now, we won’t be using traditional methods like 2022 win record or even using Vegas win totals. Instead, we will be creating a strength of schedule specifically for QBs. Using data from the 2018-2022 seasons, we will find a defense’s average Expected Points Added Per Play allowed to QBs (both passes and rushes), with our average weighted towards more recent performances. This gives us an average that shows us where a team has left off from the 2022 season, while also respecting their range of outcomes from previous seasons. Given that we don’t quite have set rosters for the 2023 season, this is a good way to capture how a defense defends against QBs.
Now that we have those numbers, we can use them on the 2023 schedule to see which QBs have easier/harder schedules. We can also judge those numbers against how efficient a QB was in 2022 to identify QBs that were +EPA/Play efficient and face an easy schedule. This should give us a good list of QBs that may take the next step forward in 2023.
Two things to note: This is only QBs with a decent sample size (over 200 plays) were chosen for this project. This means QBs like Penn State’s Drew Allar, Tennessees Joe Milton and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik are not included. This doesn’t mean they can’t have breakout season, we’re just focused on guys with more snaps taking the next step forward.
Only FBS defenses were used to create the SOS. This means QBs who face 1-2 FCS teams in 2023 did not have that counted against them. We are mainly focused on the meat of their schedule, which is their conference matchups and tougher OOC matchups.
Now that we have that out of the way, let’s see which QBs have the easiest/hardest SOS.
Easiest QB Strength of Schedules in 2023
If you’re a seasoned CFB viewer, the thought of “Explosive offenses and weak defenses” probably screams “Big 12” to you. However, that mantle has gone west to the Pac-12 conference. As a whole, the Pac-12 conferences avg EPA/Play allowed was the highest out of any Power 5 or Group of 5 conference in 2022. At the moment the Pac-12 doesn’t actually have a TV deal in place, which is a shame because the conference could see its most exciting season in quite some time. At the top of the list we see Collin Schlee, a transfer from Kent State. Schlee has dual threat ability, rushing for 610 yards and 4 TDs last season for the Golden Flashes. He also has the ability to make some insane throws from outside of the pocket:
Video from Kegan: https://twitter.com/KeganReneau/status/1568748311791681538
This list also includes Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr, two QBs with Heisman aspirations and potential first round NFL draft status if they continue to improve. Speaking of the draft, Quinn Ewers, DJ Uiagalelei and Cameron Ward were all in the mix before last season, but weren’t able to build on any momentum. This could change in 2023 with a softer QB schedule.
Over in the Group of 5, Tulsa’s Braylon Braxton tops the list. New Tulsa HC Kevin Wilson has coached elite college QBs like Dwyane Haskins (RIP), Justin Fields and CJ Stroud at Ohio State, and will be looking for Braylon Braxton to follow suit. Following Braxton is Memphis Seth Henigan, who was expected to breakout last season but that did not happen. As a Freshman in 2022, Temple QB EJ Warner led all FBS freshman QBs in passing yards (3,025) and passing TDs (18). While he won’t be eligible for the 2024 draft, an improvement on his 2022 campaign could vault him into the conversation in 2025. Finally, we have Dequan Finn, whose 18 rushing TDs ranks t-7th among FBS QBs since 2021. A true dual threat QB with one final year to make his mark at Toledo.
Hardest QB Strength of Schedules in 2023
Here are the veteran QBs with the hardest strength of schedules in 2023. Spencer Rattler needs an elite season to reclaim some of the positive sentiment that we saw at the end of his 2020 season. Unfortunately for him, South Carolinas schedule always features some of the top defenses in the country, particularly in their yearly contests against Clemson and Georgia.
Drake Maye took the country by storm in 2022, finishing with the 3rd highest PFF Pass grade and 45 Big time throws, which were 10 more than any other QB in the FBS. Some have him neck and neck with Caleb Williams as the top QB in the next NFL draft class, but it won’t come easy for him in 2023. Minnesota, one of their OOC opponents, finished 10th in EPA/Play allowed in the FBS in 2022. If he can continue to be dominant, we could be looking at a legitimate competition with Caleb Williams for top QB.
If you don’t know who Boise State QB Taylen Green is, you may want to make a small note in the back of your head. He’s 6’6, 220lbs, and can move like a player half of his size:
Twitter link: https://twitter.com/TPortalCFB/status/1604340726782758912
While it won’t be easy for him in 2023, a great season could turn a lot of heads.
Grayson McCall and Michael Pratt have been some of the more efficient QBs in the Group of 5 over the past couple seasons. For Grayson McCall, the loss of HC Jamey Chadwell could prove to be too much to continue his reign at the top. For Pratt, while he does lose some contributors on offense, Tulane still looks poised to be the favorite for the AAC title.
Combining SOS with 2022 QB Efficiency
Combining 2023 SOS and 2022 EPA/Play can give us a look at how a particular QB played in 2022 and whether they will have a easy or hard time building on that in 2023. For the Power 5, QBs like Ewers/Uiagalelei/Ward were particularly efficient in 2022, but a softer 2023 could be what they need to propel themselves into the top right quadrant. QBs like Schlee and Tyler Shough are already in the top right quadrant, but could go even higher and reach the upper echelons of college football QBs. For QBs like Riley Leonard, Drake Maye, Jordan Travis and Jalon Daniels, it’ll be a little bit of a harder test to match their special 2022 seasons.
Kurtis Rourke was the MAC player of the year in 2022 despite tearing his ACL in the Bobcats 11th game. If he is fully healthy at the start of this season, Ohio could be one of the more dangerous offenses in all of FBS football. As mentioned before, Dequan Finn and EJ Warner are already in the top right quadrant, but a softer QB schedule in 2023 could propel them to the top of the Group of 5.
Potential Breakout QBs
To wrap this up, lets pluck some of the QBs with positive efficiency and a softer 2023 QB SOS from both the P5 and G5 to identify some breakout QBs. Will add in their teams preseason win total and returning production (Note: This is from Bill Connelly’s numbers in February, so they may have shifted a little bit since then). This gives us an idea of how their teams are expected to play in 2023 and what they have working around them.
Power 5
Quinn Ewers has the team around him and their expectations are flirting with double digit wins. On one side of the road sits a great season with the question “Is Texas back?” finally getting the answer Longhorn fans have longed for since the mid 2000s. On the other side is a benching in favor of Arch Manning or Maalik Murphy. A chalky candidate for a breakout, Ewers has the arm talent to make it happen. Now we just have to see it for a full season.
DJ Uiagalelei: While there were some flashes of his 5 star talent at Clemson, it was never fully realized leading to a departure from the Tigers. His new home includes one of the top offensive minds in the country, Jonathan Smith, and one of the best OL/Run games in the country. In 2022 Oregon State finished with 10 wins for the first time since 2006. If the new environment brings the best out of DJ, we could be talking NY6 or better in Corvallis.
Collin Schlee: The throw shown above is one of the countless plays Schlee is capable of making. He faces tough competition for the starting QB job at UCLA. 5 star QB Dante Moore comes in with high praises, and it never takes long before there are calls to see a 5 star in action. If Schlee wins the job, he will command an offense with potential to be one of the best in an offensive heavy Pac-12.
Group of 5
Dequan Finn: After winning 9 games and a MAC championship in 2022, the stage is set for Toledo to repeat and potentially be one of the better teams in all of the Group of 5. This is due to the play of star QB Dequan Finn. Efficient, explosive and can get it down in the air or on the ground. Its time for the national stage to shine a light on Finn and the Toledo Rockets.
EJ Warner: You’re probably going to hear “He’s Kurt Warner’s son” about a million times between now and 2025. Expectations aren’t too high for Temple in 2023, but a breakout year by Warner could lead to a smashing of those expectations and a place in the national spotlight. A high returning production numbers means Warner will have a great opportunity to build on a stellar freshman campaign.
There we have it! We have some QBs that could breakout and take their teams to the next level. While they all will not pan out how we would like, odds are at least one will figure it out in 2023 and create the next great breakout QB college football story.
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