ESPN FPI Preseason Release
A quick look at the ratings, and each teams odds to win their conference
Hey all! ESPN just released their preseason Football Power Index (FPI) ratings, which you can find here.
If you don’t follow me on twitter (@CFBNumbers) I went through some of the numbers and each teams odds to win their respective conference. For those that don’t use Twitter, I will put the graphs below so you can follow along as well.
Opponent Analysis
I first looked at each teams schedule and evaluated its degree of difficulty by the preseason FPI ratings. The further right you move on this graph, the higher average FPI rating a team will face. Auburn leads the way with their SEC West schedule, Georgia and LSU from the SEC East, plus Penn State in the out of conference.
The more north you move on this graph, the higher the percentage of games a team has where they are the lower rated FPI team. So, for example, Arizona is the lower FPI rated team in 100% of their FBS matchups, while team like FSU/UF/Kansas State are the lower rated team a little less than half of the time.
The sweet spot on this graph would be in the Boise State area, where you are rated higher than you opponent a vast majority of the time, and your opponents average rating is rather low. On the other hand… it looks like another long year for the Georgia Tech faithful.
Odds to Win Your Respective Conference
Along with the actual rating, ESPN uses those ratings to project wins and losses, as well as odds to win everything from 6 games to the national championship. For now, we will look at each power 5 conference and each teams odds to with their conference.
ACC
Starting with the ACC, we can see FPI loves for Clemson to rebound in the ACC, giving them a 58.7% chance to win the conference. Current ACC Champion Pitt follows behind Clemson with the second best odds to win the conference. NC State is a team that is getting some love for a potential run at the conference, so it is interesting to see them as low as they are at only 3%.
SEC
The SEC appears to be a two person race between Alabama and Georgia, which would be a repeat of last year's conference championship. Outside of those two teams, every other team has less than a 1% chance to win.
Big Ten
We might just have to change the name from “Big Ten” to “Ohio State’s conference” because they are the runaway favorite to win the conference. Ohio State will be on a revenge tour after finally falling to rival Michigan. The biggest race to watch is the Big Ten West race, where teams like Wisconsin and Iowa look to compete in a highly contested division race. Of course, we also have the greatest three win team to ever grace the sport, the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Will they finally break through during what has been an extremely unlucky Scott Frost tenure? We shall see.
Big 12
Parity is the name of the game when it comes to the Big 12. Texas, which has surprised some, is a FPI darling this preseason. Could transfer QB and former number 1 recruit Quinn Ewers ignite the Steve Sarkisian offense and team into a conference champion? Also, just because Oklahoma lost Lincoln Riley, does not mean they’re out of the conference race.
Pac 12
Finally, we have the Pac 12. Despite losing their HC, Oregon is still the favorite according to FPI. Reigning conference champion Utah comes in with the second best odds, which could be good value after what they did to Oregon last season. Speaking of Lincoln Riley, his new team has the 4th best odds to win the conference, which shows that this may not be an overnight flip into the old ways of the conference.
Here is what this looks like with every team including the Group of 5 conferences. For the G5, teams like Boise State, Playoff participant Cincinnati, and Toledo are teams to watch in their respective conferences.
The ESPN FPI preseason release is one of our first glimpses into the 2022 season. There is still an entire summer in between now and the start of the season, and anything can happen in that time period. As more information becomes available, I would expect these rankings to shift slightly. Still, this is one of our first looks into the season, and gets us talking about college football in April.
If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!
If you want to see more charts and one off analysis, follow my twitter page, @CFBNumbers