Final Offseason Chart Dump: Life Update, Big Plays, and Season Plans
The season is almost here!
It has been a little over a month since the last installment of the newsletter. The reason for the absence has been this: I started a new job! I am now a Senior Media Research Associate for PFF. My job includes researching storylines and data points for on air talent to use during Amazon's broadcast of Thursday Night Football. This has been a dream job of mine and something I have been working towards since starting on my sports data journey in 2020. I can’t thank you enough for the support you have shown me with this newsletter, I am able to do my dream job because of you!
Season Plans
With that being said, let’s talk season plans. While I will be busy with PFF research, I still want to keep this active during the season. My plan last year was a weekly recap of the week’s games, along with some other pieces on the playoffs etc. I should still be able to provide the weekly recap, so for those who are new this is basically what you should be expecting:
Box Score
This is my own advanced box score for a game. These are the stats that I believe best capture the storyline of a game. Typically what I will do is group together the notable games of the week into the recap. That being said, I am always open to feedback, so if you have suggestions on how to improve this box score my door is always open
QB Box Score
If a QB goes nuclear, like for instance Phil Jurkovec vs Georgia Tech, I will include a QB box score under the game box score. Similar to the game box score, these are the advanced stats that I believe tell the story of how the QB played.
QB Roundup
Finally, I will include an entire graph on how every QB played this year. Typically one graph will be for the Power 5, and one for the Group of 5. This is so everyone can see how their favorite signal caller did in a particular week. The reason EPA/Play and QBR are chosen is they are two of the more stable metrics year over year for QB’s. They also represent both raw (EPA) and opponent adjusted (QBR) efficiency per play. So a QB like NIU’s Rocky Lombardi was efficient in the game, but QBR knocked him down a bit because of an easier opponent defense than other QB’s.
That is basically what I do for weekly recaps. Again, I am always open to suggestions on how to make the weekly recaps better, so if there is something you want to see in terms of advanced stats or data, send me a message and we can chat!
Chart Dump
QB’s and Big Plays
I looked at which QB’s produced “Big time plays”, or plays in with the expected points added was in the 90th percentile or higher. I didn’t mean for this be a Phil Jurkovec propaganda piece, but that is just how it turned out. If he can stay healthy and continue to put up big time plays, the NFL teams will come knocking in a hurry.
Cannon Index
Speaking of big plays, I also tried to hack together a “cannon index”, which in my mind was off the charts measurables combined with big time throws. As you can see, Josh Allen as the leader of the cannon index checks out. Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall would not be someone you consider a “cannon arm”, but his efficiency on deep throws remains off the charts. His arm strength may be a question when he enters the NFL next season, but for now, we get one more magical McCall led Chanticleers season.
4th Down Decisions
4th Down decisions have become a hotbed topic in the NFL. With that in mind, I wanted to see which coaches were the most aggressive on 4th down. I used a mixed effect model which essentially controlled for game situation. These charts basically tell us the odds a coach will go for it on 4th, regardless of the situation. These are the top 25 and bottom 25 coaches in CFB. Lane Kiffin at number 1 is no surprise to anyone, as Lane has been seen as one of the pioneers in the recent 4th down aggressiveness movement. As a FSU alum who attended Florida State during the Jimbo Fisher era, it is no surprise to see him at the bottom of 4th down aggressiveness. Granted, his recruiting has put him more on par with Alabama/Clemson/Georgia, who can afford to be less aggressive on 4th down due to their overwhelming talent advantage.
QB’s and Returning Production
We’re always looking for that next rising star QB. The next Joe Burrow, Zach Wilson, or Kenny Pickett. One way I wanted to look at it was by seeing which QB’s returned most of their receiving core, as well as how efficient they were using the QB composite. The further right you go, the more receiving production a team returns for their QB. The higher you go, the more efficient the QB was in 2021.
Personally, I believe this group of QB’s is the one to look for in terms of meteoric rise potential. Each of these QB’s were above average in terms of the QB composite, as well as above average in returning production from their pass catchers. Some of these QB’s are already getting national attention, but I believe at least one of them will take another step forward, which could be massive for their respective team.
Explosive Plays
Finally, we look at explosive plays. I was interested to see which teams make the most out of their explosive plays, so I looked at their total explosive plays (10+ yard rushes, 15+ yard passes) vs. how often they actually score on those plays. Teams like Virginia generated a lot of explosive plays, but that didn’t mean finding the endzone. Meanwhile, teams like LSU really made use of their explosive plays by scoring more on them than you would expect.
That is all for now! The season is just around the corner, and I have been toying around with a way to preview teams this season, so be on the lookout for that. Once again I want to thank each and every one of you that have supported the newsletter. Getting to wake up every day and live out your dream is something I wish everyone could experience. Here’s to a great 2022 College Football season!
If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!
If you want to see more charts and one off analysis, follow my twitter page, @CFBNumbers