Rock Chalk, Jayhawk: The Numbers Behind The Rise of Kansas Football

Guest Writer Brendan Farrell shows you why Kansas, Yes KANSAS, is a fun and efficient football team.

It’s official: It’s the year of our Lord 2022, and the University of Kansas has a competitive football team. 

The Jayhawks are one of a handful of undefeated teams after defeating previously undefeated Duke 35-27 on Saturday. The Jayhawks are just four games into the season, and Kansas has recorded its most wins in a season since 2009. That’s how dire it’s been on the gridiron in Lawrence. 

With the Jayhawks riding high early and Kansas coach Lance Leipold seemingly well on his way to winning Coach of the Year, let’s look at how we got here in the first place. 

Partying like it’s 2007

Kansas’ 2007 team went down as perhaps one of college football’s biggest one-hit wonders. The Jayhawks were 6-6 in 2006, but they went supernova in 2007. Kansas finished 12-1 with a win in the Orange Bowl over Virginia Tech and finished seventh in the final AP Poll. The next year, the Jayhawks fell to 8-5, and Kansas hasn’t topped five wins since 2009. 

Kansas football has been wandering in the desert for over a decade now, but that’s changed lately. The Jayhawks haven’t won more than one conference game since 2008, but they’re 1-0 in conference play in 2022. The rest of the slate should be a challenge — Kansas actually fielding a competitive team means that there really isn’t a truly tragic team in the conference this year — but the Jayhawks could win a second conference game this year. 

But just how much better is Kansas this year? Let’s take a look at the team’s EPA per play on both offense and defense since 2014.

It’s night and day in Lawrence right now. An opening slate of Tennessee Tech, West Virginia, Houston and Duke isn’t quite a murderers’ row of opponent, but that’s two wins over Power 5 opponents and another against a consistently good Houston program. Given the state of Kansas’ football program, that’s practically a miracle. 

And about that offense…

Savior behind center

Behind most miraculous turnarounds is a resurgence at the quarterback position, and Kansas is no different. 

Jalon Daniels has been crushing it behind center this season for the Jayhawks. The junior struggled in 2020 and was supposed to redshirt last year before being pressed into action. This year, he’s the top quarterback in the nation by QBR with a 98.0. Daniels has completed 71% of his passes for 9.6 yards per attempt and an 11:1 touchdowns-to-interception ratio. 

Compared to previous Kansas quarterbacks, he’s basically a god.

With Daniels at quarterback, Kansas has had one of the best passing attacks in the country. The Jayhawks are averaging 0.54 EPA per play on passing plays, which is the fourth-best in the country. Daniels has bolstered Kansas’ running game as well with an EPA per carry of 0.6 and a 48.6% success rate.

Kansas has also been especially effective on third and fourth down, Daniels included. The Jayhawks have an EPA per play (0.88) on these downs that is one of the best in the country overall, and they’ve been dangerous both throwing and running the ball. Kansas is averaging an EPA per pass of about one on third and fourth down and an EPA per rush of 0.73. 

Daniels has played a large role in that, too. Obviously, that crazy high EPA per pass is because of his quarterbacking abilities, but he’s also had a few explosive plays with his legs to keep drives going. Opposing defenses haven’t been able to get off the field against Kansas’ offense this year, which still feels like a very strange sentence to type.

But how can Kansas still Kansas?

Kansas is such an archetypal Big 12 team it hurts. 

The Jayhawks have only allowed just over 27 points per game this year, which isn’t too terrible. But it gets worse from there with a little digging.

Kansas isn’t completely terrible against the run, but the Jayhawks have been particularly susceptible against the pass. The Jayhawks have surrendered an EPA per play of 0.22 on passing plays this season, which puts them in the top 15 worst pass defenses in the country. 

Looking at the Big 12, seven of the 10 quarterbacks have a QBR above 70. The lowest of those seven, Baylor’s Blake Shapen, is 37th in the country. If the Jayhawks can’t clean up their passing defense, they could be in serious trouble. 

The good news for Kansas is it likely stands to benefit from some regression in the positive direction. The Jayhawks’ success rates overall (38.3%), against the pass (37.8%) and on early downs (36%) are all fairly decent. Kansas has just been the victim of some unfortunate explosiveness. 

The Jayhawks have given up 15 passing plays of 20 yards or more, which puts them in a tie for 92nd in the country. Kansas has also accumulated 10 sacks, so it’s not as if its pass rush isn’t getting home. Incremental improvements against passing plays could go a long way for Kansas against conference opponents. 

Also, the Jayhawks getting their ground game going on early downs could really help lessen the load on Daniels’ shoulders. While Kansas’ rushers have had plenty of success on third and fourth down, the Jayhawks have stalled on early-down rushing attempts, generating an EPA per rush just a shade over zero. Kansas has done a pretty good job of creating manageable third- and fourth-down situations, but an uptick in the rushing department should help, too. 

Conclusions

Kansas definitely has something cooking, though it remains to be seen how much of it comes together this year instead of further down the road. A bowl game could be attainable, though Kansas doesn’t really have a guaranteed win anywhere. For what it’s worth, ESPN’s FPI projects the Jayhawks to finish around 6-6. 

However, what makes college football so fun sometimes is how the definition of a “successful season” changes the further away you get from the top 20 or so. Shoot, Kansas even receiving votes, let alone nearly getting into the top 25, is a win by itself. This is still a program that hasn’t won more than four games since 2009.

But expectations for the football team might finally be changing in Lawrence.

If you want to dive in to the data like Brendan does, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!

If you want to see more from Brendan, follow him on twitter! @BFarrell727

Thumbnail: Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images