Quick Week 9 Recap and First CFP Rankings!
The committee has spoken.... what do the rankings look like?
Hope everyone had a fantastic Halloween if you celebrate! Last night the initial CFB Playoff rankings were released. We finally got to see what the committee has thought about how the season has played out thus far. Since we didn’t get to recap last week, we’re going to do a little bit of that plus some initial thoughts on the first set of rankings. Let’s dive into it!
Quick Week 9 Recap
Oklahoma - Kansas
For the first time since 1997, Kansas has beaten Oklahoma in football! Jayhawks RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. added 10.39 EPA on the ground with two rushing TD’s to go along with Devin Neals 116 yards as they upset the previously unbeaten Oklahoma Sooners.
Worlds Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
Coming into this game we thought there might be a chance this was a little bit more competitive, but Georgia shut down those questions rather quickly as they take care of business against the rival Gators. QB Carson Beck arguably had one of his best games of his career throwing for 315 yards and adding 14.93 EPA through the air, and that was without the help of star TE Brock Bowers.
Oregon - Utah
Oregon imposed their will on a tough Utah team as they look as good as any other team in the country at the moment. QB Bo Nix threw for 248 yards and 2 TD’s en route to a 0.418 EPA/Pass outing. While Oregon does have the loss to Washington on their resume, they are still well alive in the CFB playoff race.
Georgia Tech - UNC
We have an upset!! Georgia Tech hands North Carolina their 2nd loss of the season, thus ending a Tar Heels playoff bid and throwing a potential ACC championship game appearance out of their hands. Haynes King added 18.67 EPA through the air for the Yellow Jackets, which included passing 4 TD’s. He also added another 4.13 EPA on the ground with 90 rushing yards.
Arizona - Oregon State
The final upset of the week came to Oregon State as they were outlasted by an Arizona team that looks a lot better than some expected at the start of the season. While Oregon State won pretty much metric across the board, they were held in check in the red zone, scoring only on 38% of drives. Noah Fifita has performed well since taking over the starting QB job from an injured Jayden de Laura. He threw for 3 TD’s en route to a 0.192 EPA/Pass performance.
Power 5 QB Play
Group of 5 QB Play
Initial CFB Playoff Rankings
Here is the initial CFB Playoff rankings as well as a massive table of raw EPA metrics. Darker colors represent the better numbers, so if I were you I would look for the darkest and the lightest boxes to find things sticking out. Like, for example, Oregon’s offense has been one of the best on the ground, while LSU’s offense is full of explosive plays. Defensively, Michigan has been able to shut down their opponents through the air while USC has been… well not great at limiting explosives.
CFB Playoff Tiers
One of the hallmarks of this newsletter is using clustering to jam a bunch of metrics together in order to group teams together and get a better idea of what all of the information is trying to tell us. In past seasons, we have used clustering to get an idea of where the CFP/G5 contenders stand in the season. One change to the metrics used was instead of F+ ratings, metrics such as the Simple Rating System, ELO ratings and Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings were used as well as raw EPA stats (offense and defense).
The top tier includes the top 6 teams in the initial CFB playoff rankings, as well as Oklahoma, who had been pretty dominant up until their upset loss last week to Kansas. The next tier down all have one loss and probably need some help getting into the final four, but will have a shot at some of the contending teams (Alabama-Georgia in a potential SEC Champ, Louisville-FSU in a potential ACC Champ, Penn State-Michigan).
James Madison is 8-0 but due to their transition to the FBS, they are ineligible for the Sun Belt Championship or any potential bowl game. Which is a shame because if they were eligible would most likely be in the driver seat of the G5 spot in a NY6 bowl. The current driver is actually Tulane, who ranked in the 24th spot ahead of 25th ranked Air Force.
Here are some averages among the clusters. The first cluster has been pretty efficient on the offensive side of the ball, while the 2nd tier owes more of its success to a strong defense.
Buy Me A Coffee!
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/CFBNumbers
As long as I do this newsletter I will keep it free so that as many people as possible can enjoy and join us on our CFB data adventure. However, if you did want to show additional support the newsletter (which you 100% do not have to!) you can always buy me a coffee here!
If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!
If you want to see more charts and one off analysis, follow my twitter page, @CFBNumbers