Random Draft Graphs & Things Im Using During The Draft
Its FINALLY HERE!!!!
♫ITS THE MOST, WONDERFUL TIMEEEEEEE OF THE YEAR♫
We have finally arrived at the first round of the NFL Draft today! The ultimate collision of the NFL and our beloved college football. Its time to see which pre-draft rumors were true, and which were just air.
I don’t really have a format for this article, but I wanted to share some random graphs I found interesting, as well as my 32 team first round mock and some draft content + tools I think will be fun to consume before the first name is called tonight. Let’s do it!
Top 5 Exact Order Odds
At the time of this writing, these are the 5 most likely top 5 pick orders according to draftkings sportsbook. The top 4 picks in the draft appear to be forgone conclusions, while the 5th pick seems to be where the draft begins. It should be noted that these orders are not attached to any team. While Tennessee is not trading out of the number 1 spot, there have been rumblings of the Browns/Giants trading down from the 2nd/3rd spots, respectively. There have also been rumors of the Jaguars trading down from the 5th spot. Im not too confident in any of those rumors, as it takes two teams to make a trade and it doesn’t look like many teams are willing to trade up. So in my mind, the chaos begins at pick number 5.
Who Is Going To Have A Good Draft?
Using Arif Hasan’s Consensus Big Board, we can look at which teams might have a good time tonight with draft picks. Converting consensus big board slots into draft value (thanks to the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart), we can see Michigan might see four players get their names called, with Mason Graham leading the way at 4 on the consensus big board. Of course, not every player in the top 32 will get drafted in the first round, so I bumped it up to the top 40 just to be a little safer (even then, there always seems to be surprises in the first round!).
If we expand to the entire draft, we can see which teams are expected to do better or worse than their average draft class since the start of the CFB Playoff era. Teams above the line, like Colorado and Texas, are expected to have a better draft class in terms of draft pick value than their CFB Playoff era average. On the other hand, teams like Alabama, Clemson, Florida, and Washington are expected to have a lower draft class value than they normally do.
Draft Content Im Consuming
Arif Hasan (Wide Left Football) Consensus Big Board
Consensus big boards are a great way to consolidate a bunch of draft opinions into one big board. Arif has his own methodology of creating his big board, which I highly encourage you to explore in the link above. You can also download the data, which is exactly what I did to get the numbers for the graphs above.
Jack Lichtenstein’s Consensus Big Board
https://jacklich10.com/bigboard/nfl/
I also like Jack Lichtenstein’s consensus big board as you can see where the numbers are driving the average ranking. Its always interesting to see which publications have outlier opinions on particular prospects.
Grinding The Mocks
https://grindingthemocks.shinyapps.io/Dashboard/
I LOVE me some Grinding The Mocks by Ben Robinson. Similar to the big boards, Ben sets out to harness the power of the wisdom of the crowds in order to come up with expected draft positions. While the consensus big boards can be make up of ~100 big boards, GrindingTheMocks uses THOUSANDS of mock drafts floating around the draft space (For example, 2,109 mocks are powering that Shedeur Sanders draft card).
During and after the draft, I like to compare my teams (Lets go Dolphins!) draft to their placement on the consensus big boards and their expected draft position. Typically the best drafts are ones that stay around those consensus rankings, which reaches usually not panning out.
NEW: PFF Team Specific Board
New this year from PFF: TEAM SPECIFIC BOARDS!! Not only do you get a board tailor made to your team, you also get bits of scheme data thrown in there as well. You could honestly print this out and follow along to see if your team is following a similar pattern to these team specific boards.
NEW: NFL Draft IQ
Finally on the tools side of content from NFL.com: NFL Draft IQ.
Basically you get this nice little sheet that shows you what your teams first round + Day 2/3 targets might look like, as well as the odds your team trades up or down in the first round. You can also look at what your teams front office has done historical in terms of trading up or down. This feels like something I would pull up at a draft party if someone asked me “Who do you think XX will take?” and I wasn’t confident in my answer.
PFF Draft Guide
https://www.pff.com/draft/guide
I know im biased but PFF’s draft guide is one of the most comprehensive on the market. Everything you would ever need to know about a draft prospect is jammed into this bad boy. It is well worth the price of admission in my opinion.
AJ Schultes Scouting Report
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wjRBmiVLqI9QTQHW_Q3fpzO48z8xqT8S/view
This is one of the most impressive things out there. If you’ve never tried it before, pick a player and try to write a couple sentences or a paragraph on them with the goal being to describe their profile in an interesting and succinct way.
Now try and do that 200+ times. That is extremely hard! AJ is a young bright mind in the draft space and work like this should heavily praised. I highly recommend checking out this draft guide (thats also 100% free!)
The Fantasyland Forecast
If you want draft content with a fantasy football slant, look no further than my friend Jordan and the Fantasyland Forecast. Its a brand new substack, but Jordan is pumping out some fantastic content ahead of the draft tonight. Currently, he has draft models out for QBs/RBs, with the rest of the positions on the way. Highly suggest giving it a sub!
The first round of the NFL draft is one of, if not my favorite time for the entire football year. For my fellow draft nerds, we have made it! I hope you all have a fantastic draft weekend.
Lily Donation Fund
In October our lives upside down for a moment as our little cat was sick. After some extensive care and a really rough surgery, she has been recovering well and back to being our tubby little girl.
I hate that I have to do this but this whole ordeal was rough financially for us. If you enjoy the articles and wish to help (which you 10000% do not have to if you do not want to) I left the link to the GoFundMe up above.
If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!
If you want to see more charts and one off analysis, follow my twitter page, @CFBNumbers
There will never ever be another college football team like 2021-2023 UTSA. Sincere McCormick, Tariq Woolen, Joshua Cephus, Trey Moore, Kevorian Barnes, Rashad Wisdom, Zah Fraiser, and genuinely one of the greatest quarterbacks to touch the field of college football and I have the honor to see in person, Frank Harris. Thank you.