The CJ Carr Week: CFB Week 5 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 6 Look Ahead

Before you could even finish your blink, September college football is behind us. While we are still learning some things about the top teams in the nation, we have already had some big upsets and shifts in the power ratings of CFB. For one last time this year, let’s recap some September football!

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Most Exciting Games Of Week 5

Im just going to ignore every number on this list except for Virginia’s post game win probability,,,,,

High scoring, back and forth games that reach OT are where we typically see the most “exciting” games based on the excitement index. This was exactly the case for the first two games. While Cincinnati and Kansas didn’t go to OT, a Tawee Walker last second TD was still an exciting moment (for Bearcat fans at least!)

Expectations vs. Reality

Here is how everyone did relative to sportsbook expectations. The biggest overachievers were Notre Dame, who came into Fayetteville as only a 5.5 point favorite, but walked away a winner by a score of 56-13. Marshall and Louisiana had a projected total of 48.5 total points between the two teams… they BOTH reached that and then some, with the final being 54-51 in favor of Louisiana.

QB Play: Power 4

Your Power 4 QB metrics of the week. Top right QB honors include LaNorris Sellers, who has bounced back with in 82.9 PFF Pass grade in the two weeks following his early exit in the Vanderbilt game. Other top right QBs include Luke Altmyer, who outlasted Jayden Maiava and USC, and Diego Pavia (Americas QB).

QB Play: Group of 5

Here is the Group of 5. Liam Szarka, Tucker Gleason and Maddux Madsen among your top right G5 QBs of the week, and outside of Henry Hesson there really wasn’t too much disagreement with the tape and play by play efficiency based metrics.

Stat of the Week: CJ Carr Might Be Very Good

Notre Dame has struggled to get some truly elite passing in the CFB Playoff era. Riley Leonard led them to the National Championship last year sure, but that was on the back of his rushes and sound decision making on read options. CJ Carr might still be very young and we still don’t know for certain, but he has looked the part as an elite passer for the Irish. Against Arkansas, he threw for 354 yards and 4 TDs, which was good for 27.6 EPA through the air. Only Ian Book against Northwestern in 2018 generated more EPA on pass attempts in one game for the Irish in the CFB Playoff era.

Week 6 Implied Points

Here are the implied points for the week, with teams to the right of the black line as the teams expected to win their matchups. Except of course Florida State, that number is WRONG and only NERDs look at numbers (im just kidding, Miami does in fact come into Doak as a 4.5 point favorite).

Week 6 QB Matchups

Once again, this slate is LOADED with interesting QB matchups. It starts at the top with Ty Simpson and the Alabama Crimson Tide going against MR COLLEGE FOOTBALL, Diego Pavia and the Vanderbilt Commodores. Tommy Castellanos and Carson Beck represent the transfer QB matchup of the week. Dylan Raiola duking it out with Aiden Chiles? Yes please!

Week 6 Mismatches

The biggest mismatches according to Expected Points Added ranks. Houston has struggled to run the ball and generating explosives on the ground and now they go against a Texas Tech team that is one of the best at stopping the run. Its hard to take passing numbers for service academies at face value, considering they hardly pass. So in this instance, I would say don’t be surprised if Navy has a trick pass up their sleeve that goes the distance.

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