The DJ Lagway Week: CFB Week 12 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 13 Look Ahead
Big time throws by a big time true freshman QB.
Ive said it before, but this season has been the year of true freshman talent in CFB. On both sides of the ball we have seen true freshman make plays and show some big time potential in the CFB world. It really feels like this true freshman class has been one of the best in its first season in a while (a project for another day!), and the future of college football talent looks extremely bright. We highlight one particular true freshman QB and more in this installment of the recap + look ahead.
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Most Exciting Games Of Week 12
Excitement doesn’t always have to be offensive fireworks. It can sometimes be a 16-13 struggle where you kinda wonder if the number one team in the country is going to survive a cold night in Madison. In other cases, it can be Washington State and New Mexico trading blow for blow on offense (in a game in which this newsletter recommended you watch).
For our win probability graph we will highlight the game at the top. FIU came into this game 12.5 point underdogs, which explains why they started behind the 8 ball on the win probability graph. The slow climb towards FIUs side represents them hanging in the game, with the score being 20-17 in favor of Jacksonville State at halftime. Then, as if it was a prized fight between two fighters looking to score a last second knockout, three lead changes occurred in the 4th quarter before Tre Stewart was able to seal it with a 56 yard TD run.
Expectations vs. Reality
South Florida was your big winner in terms of how they did vs. sportsbooks expectations. They came into their game against Charlotte as 1.5 point underdogs, but they left with a 59-24 victory that cost Charlotte HC Biff Poggi his job. Other winners include Utah State in their 55-10 win against Hawaii, and Buffalo and Ball State for scoring 99 combined points when the point total before the game was only 55.5.
QB Play: Power 5
Power 5 QB play for the week. Jalen Milroe, Will Howard have been top right QBs for most of the season so no surprises there. Its nice to see Carson Beck with a good game after a pretty disappointing season for him. Sam Leavitt! Hello! On the season, he ranks 20th in QBR and Arizona State is 8-2 with a chance to potentially reach the Big 12 championship and earn a shot at a CFB playoff berth.
QB Play: Group of 5
Here is the Group of 5 QBs for the week. Darian Mensah continues to impress this season as his first year as Tulane’s starting QB. Quentin Hayes and Air Force have struggled this year, so its nice to see them have a game they can hang their hats on. Jordan McCloud ranks 12th! in ESPN QBR this season.
Stat of the Week: All DJ Does Is Big Time Throws
QBs can do wonders for a program. They can elevate a program with a good foundation to the next level, or they can give a struggling one a glimmer of hope for the future. Florida came into this year with low expectations based on one of the hardest schedules in college football. It looked like this would be the year Billy Napier exits from the program, and they would have to rebuild from scratch yet again. Enter highly touted freshman DJ Lagway.
Physically, he already has the tools that get your named called in April. He has been able to use those tools to give Florida a spark needed to carry this offense to another level. On throws of 20+ yards in the air, DJ Lagway has a 63.6% charted accurate throw rate, the highest in the FBS this season. His 11.0% PFF Big Time throw rate ranks 1st in the FBS as well, and you can see from the graph he owns three of the 5 highest big time throw rate games for true freshman, including this previous week vs. LSU. UF is 5-5 after the win against LSU, and are a FSU win away from reaching a bowl game in a season virtually nobody thought they’d get to one. Like Luke Skywalker before him, DJ Lagway is a new hope for the Galaxy (Gainesville).
Week 13 Implied Points
The implied points by sportsbook for this season. Georgia and Tennesse get some lighter loads this week after their battle against each other. Ohio State has opened as a 13.5 point favorite against undefeated Indiana in a game where it seems everyone will have eyeballs on it at some point in time. If you like points, maybe stay away from the Michigan Northwestern game that has an over/under point total of 36.5.
Week 13 QB Matchups
Speaking of Ohio State Indiana, the QBs will have all eyes on them this week. Will Howard has one of the highest completion percentages this season, while the Maple Missile continues to propel this Indiana offense that ranks 7th in adjusted EPA/Play. If you enjoy QBs who RUN THE DANG BALL, be sure to check out Riley Leonard and the Fighting Irish against Captain America Bryson Daily and the Army Black Knights.
Week 13 Mismatches
Defenses take up the first four spots in our mismatches graph of the week. In a game they will probably have to pass their way back into, its not a great sign to see the Texas secondary if you’re Kentucky. Cam Ward could make a late push for the heisman with some explosives against Wake Forest, but thats it when it comes to offensive advantages on this graph.
I know I already said it last week but where did the time go this season. Theres only two weeks left in the regular season! Almost time for conference championships and then….. oh the playoff talk. At least their won’t be any snubs this year right?……. right……?
Lily Donation Fund
The other week turned our lives upside down for a moment as our little cat was sick. After some extensive care and a really rough surgery, she has been recovering well and back to being our tubby little girl.
I hate that I have to do this but this whole ordeal was rough financially for us. If you enjoy the articles and wish to help (which you 10000% do not have to if you do not want to) I left the link to the GoFundMe up above.
If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!
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