The Hype Index: Using Numbers To Find The Best CFB Games To Rewatch
Letting numbers figure out which games to rewatch this summer
Everyone reaches a point in the offseason where you would do ANYTHING to have some college football on your screen. Streaming and Youtube have made it easier than ever to find old college football games to throw on your screen. For most, you’re just rewatching games that your team won, or watching up until the point your team starting losing. If you do want to venture past your own team’s schedule and enjoy some of the other parts of the college football world, it can be difficult to figure out where to start. Lucky for us, we have a way to use numbers to guide us in the right direction.
Similar to the Fun Index, we are going to gather some numbers together, get them on the same scale and then find the average to create what we will call the “Hype Index”. Our end goal being creating one number that tells us how hyped up and exciting a game was that would be enjoyable to watch again. Before we get to one number, we are going to create two numbers first: a pre and post game hype index. This is so we can find games that were billed up as a big matchup, and games that delivered on that hype. Here are the numbers that are going into the indexes:
Pregame Hype Index:
Betting Lines: This includes the spread and over/under point total for a game. We want games that were projected to be close, high scoring games so games with tighter spreads and high over/under totals are what we’re looking for.
Average Rank: This is the average rank between both teams. We start with the AP Top 25 until the CFP Playoff Committee rankings come out. For unranked teams, we give them a blanket ranking of 50. The goal here is finding those top 25 or better matchups.
Postgame Hype Index:
Points: Obviously we are looking for games with a lot of fireworks, so total points is included for the postgame hype index.
Score differential: Not only do we want a high scoring affair, we also want it to be a close contest the whole way through. If you’re a fan of low scoring defensive slugfests, im afraid this index is probably not for you.
Excitement Index: This is simply the sum of all win probability swings in a single game. The idea being games that hang in between the 20%-80% range with bigger changes in win probability are “more exciting”. Basically we’re looking for games with win probability charts like this:
Once we have our pre and post game hype indexes, we can combine those together to get our one final number. We are looking for games to rewatch, so it makes sense to weight our final index towards the post-game more than the pregame. We would rather find games that weren’t as hyped to begin with that turned out to be excellent vs. games that had the hype surrounding it but failed to live up to it.
Biggest Games in 2022
According to our Hype index, these are the top 10 games in 2022 that were worth a rewatch. Topping the list is a classic rivalry that saw new heights in 2022 as #7 USC looked to keep their playoff hopes alive against #16 UCLA. This game featured two heavily talent offenses, led by eventual Heisman winner Caleb Williams for USC and eventual 5th round pick Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the Bruins.
Williams put a stamp on his Heisman campaign with 503 total yards and 3 TD’s as the Trojans outlast the Bruins. This game was an instant classic, but if you were on the East Coast the game started at 8 PM EST. If you were not up at midnight to watch the conclusion of this game, its definitely one to rewatch.
Other games on this list include the Tennessee Volunteers going punch for punch with Alabama, eventually leading to a game winning field goal and a party in Knoxville that might still be going to this day. Apologies to Wake Forest fans, but their close losses against Clemson and North Carolina both made the list. Finally, if you’re looking for a little high octane conference championship energy, Kansas State and TCU might be exactly what you’re looking for.
Biggest Games Since 2017
Perhaps you’re looking for games from previous seasons. These are the biggest games since the 2017 season. Only two games from the 2022 season (USC-UCLA/Tenn-Bama) appear on this list. Topping the list is a Big 12 shootout between Oklahoma and West Virginia. Oklahoma came into this game needing a win to clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship game.
Kyler Murray was borderline perfect in this matchup. This game featured everything from high powered offense to two defensive TD’s by the Sooners defense. If you’re yearning for those classic Big 12 offensive slugfests, this is the game you want to watch again.
Other games on this list include the SEVEN OVERTIME thriller between LSU-TAMU. This is the game that made the NCAA change the overtime rules into the 2 pt shootouts we see today. If you’re once again looking for another high octane conference championship, 2017 UCF-Memphis is your game. Our goal was to find games billed as close, high scoring matchups that delivered on their promise. Judging by this list of games, I say we hit the nail on the head.
Pregame vs. Postgame Hype Since 2017
In case you were wondering, here is the average pregame and postgame hype for each team since 2017. Teams that play in more close, high octane games are in the top right, while teams in the bottom left probably wish to keep their past games in the past. The powerhouses of CFB (Bama/UGA/Clemson/OSU) are all in the bottom right quadrant, which says that while their games are hyped in the pregame, they typically aren’t close games. This obviously isn’t bad, 100% of fanbases would love to be as dominant as the top of CFB. While their games aren’t typically punch for punch shootouts, their re-watchability lies in perhaps watching your favorite pro tear it up in college.
Combining these numbers together and we get the teams that have had the most hyped games since 2017. Topping the list is the former powerhouse SMU, who have found their footing after decades of floundering around post death penalty. Sonny Dykes brought a high powered air raid type offense to the Mustangs, leading to games filled with video game like numbers. Rhett Lashlee has continued the momentum, and the Mustangs will be a team to watch in 2023.
Hopefully this helps you find some games to throw on the TV while we wait for the season to start in late August. While the summer can be a much needed break from all of the action of college football, sometimes we just need a little fix to get us more excited for the upcoming season.
If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!
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