The Marcel Reed Week: CFB Week 9 Advanced Stats Recap & Week 10 Look Ahead
Second half magic at College Station!
Happy Halloween Eve! We have officially reached the November weekend games (unless you’re a CUSA team playing during the week). Time to get into the meat and potatoes of college football. Let’s recap the final October weekend and look forward to November!
During the season if you would like to see an advanced box score of a certain game, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
Most Exciting Games Of Week 9
In the annual battle for the Governors Cup, Kansas State - Kansas lived up to the storied rivalries hype. The game was a back and forth affair until Kansas State kicked a pair of FGs to steal the game from Kansas. Kansas won the success rate battle (47% to 42%) and the third down success rate battle (53% to 35%) which were part of the reasons why they ended up winning the post game win probability battle at 59.5% to Kansas State’s 40.5%. At the end of the day though, the only thing that matters is the final score.
Expectations vs. Reality
Here are the points for and against based off of betting line expectations. Feels like this week there was a lot of variance between the vegas line expectation and the final score. The biggest winners were Tulsa, who squeaked out a 46-45 win against UTSA despite being 9.5 point underdogs, and ECU, who beat Temple 56-34 in a game where the entire point total was 48.5
QB Play: Power 5
Here are your Power 5 QBs of the week. The biggest winner was Max Brosmer, who 303 yards and 4 passing TDs in a win against Maryland. Other Power 5 QBs of the week include Taylen Green, Fernando Mendoza, and Riley Leonard. This is another week of #TopRightRiley, which should be a welcome sight for the Notre Dame faithful.
QB Play: Group of 5
Here are your Group of 5 QBs of the week. No Bryson Daily as Army was off this week, so instead we got ourselves a Colton Joseph 5 TD performance against Georgia Southern. Other G5 QBs of the week include Joey Aguilar and Tyler Huff. It appears the fumbles dinged Blake Horvath more in PFF grade than it did with ESPN QBR.
Stat of the Week: Marcel Reed Second Half Magic
In the middle of the 3rd quarter, LSU had a 17-7 lead against Texas A&M in College Station. Connor Weigman was just not getting the job done, averaging -0.69 Expected points per dropback. After a 3 and out, HC Mike Elko decided to make the switch to backup QB Marcel Reed, who had seen action this year due to Weigman injuries. Garrett Nussmeier throws an INT and on his VERY FIRST PLAY, Marcel Reed scores.
Reed was only involved in 11 “action” plays (passes or rushes) but he went 2/2 for 70 yards through the air, and on the ground he scored 3 TD’s on 9 rushes. In terms of PFF Grade, his 91.5 grade in the 2nd half ranked 7th best among QBs in the 2nd half in a game all season. TAMU walked away with the 38-23 victory against LSU, and they now control the SEC. It’d be hard to argue for Weigman after this late game magic, it appears to be the Marcel Reed show for the SEC leading Aggies.
Week 10 Implied Points
Welcome to the first double digit week! Here are the implied points for the week. If you’re Oklahoma, who ranks 74th in adjusted EPA/play on offense, you’re probably happy to see Vegas expected a typical blowout against FCS Maine. In the big game of the week (Penn State - Ohio State), Vegas expects the Buckeyes to win a close one 24.5-21.
Week 10 QB Matchups
We shall see if Drew Allar is able to play in this game, if he is it serves as our most interesting QB matchup of the week according to a combined ESPN QBR. Other QB matchups im interested in: Taylen Green vs. Jaxson Dart in an SEC matchup, and Aidan Chiles vs. (hopefully) Kurtis Rourke in a B1G showdown.
Week 10 Mismatches
Boise State taking on a weaker San Diego State rush defense? Yes folks, that alarm you’re hearing is the Ashton Jeanty big game alarm. He was relatively quiet in the big win against UNLV, but this week he should be looking for another 200+ rush yard performance. Speaking of rushing performance South Alabama should have its way with the Georgia Southern rush defense. Its a little concerning our Air Force isn’t good at defending through the air…..
Happy first week of November!
Lily Donation Fund
The other week turned our lives upside down for a moment as our little cat was sick. After some extensive care and a really rough surgery, she has been recovering well and back to being our tubby little girl.
I hate that I have to do this but this whole ordeal was rough financially for us. If you enjoy the articles and wish to help (which you 10000% do not have to if you do not want to) I left the link to the GoFundMe up above.
If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!
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