The ND Revenge Week: CFB Week 3 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 4 Look Ahead
A "down" week? I don't think so!
Based on the matchups last week, a lot of people assumed that it would be a “down” week of college football. With the sheer amount of matchups plus the chaos and variability of football, every week is bound to produce some great games and this week wasn’t any different! Let’s recap the week plus look ahead to the next week (and unveil a fan favorite graph from past seasons)
During the season if you would like to see an advanced box score of a certain game, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
Most Exciting Games Of Week 3
My wife is a UCF grad, while I am a Florida State grad. As you might guess, we are a Citronaut household this season. With that being said, I thought UCF was dead in the water when they went down 21 points to TCU. The UCF offense is built on the run game, and I wasn’t sure the passing game would be enough to come back. A couple of KJ Jefferson to Kobe Hudson receiving TDs later (plus a RJ Harvey explosive TD run)and the Citronauts found themselves leading the game for the first time with 36 seconds left.
Heres how those TDs stacked up in the biggest plays of the game (by GameonPaper.com
Expectations vs. Reality
As you can tell by the title of this article, we will get to Notre Dame’s thrashing of Purdue in a second. The other big winner was South Alabama, who put up 87 POINTS in their game against FCS Northwestern State. Based on implied points, they were only supposed to score 48.5 points!
QB Play: Power 5
The big power 5 winner this week was Dillion Gabriel, who put up 3 total touchdowns and 353 total yards in a highly efficient game against rival Oregon State. Other power 5 QBs of the week include Texas Tech’s Behren Morton and Cam Ward, who continues to put up impressive performances (I know, I know, quality of opponent. Still impressive!)
QB Play: Group of 5
Caden Veltkamp did not start this game, but he definitely made his mark when he came in for the injured TJ Finley. 396 yards through the air, 5 passing TDs, and a rushing TD to go along with it as Western Kentucky handled Middle Tennessee State 49 -21.
Stat of the Week: Notre Dame Saw Your Tweets!
After losing to Northern Illinois at home, many wrote Notre Dame off for the season. They responded with a dominant 66-7 performance against Purdue. Their defense caused two interceptions (including one pick six), 4 sacks, and gave up only 4.1 yards per play. The offense didn’t really answer the explosive pass question, but they didn’t really have to because the running game was dominant. While their chances of hosting a playoff game might be nonexistent, the Irish are still squarely in the playoff race.
Week 4 Implied Points
Here are the implied points for week 4 this upcoming weekend. Poor Kent State is coming off a 71-0 loss to Tennessee, and now they have to go into Happy Valley and play Penn State. Also, if you ever want to know where the defensive struggles are, just find the Iowa logo on the chart. This week, its Iowa taking on Minnesota in prime time… maybe will see some surprise touchdowns.
QB Matchups: Week 4
Here are the best/interesting QB matchups on the week. Tyler Shough and Louisville take on Haynes King and Georgia Tech in a classic “ACC matchup that like historically isn’t great but will probably be a fun little watch”. Missouri survived a fight with dual threat Thomas Castellanos, but now they have to contend with MR NEW MEXICO, THE WEEKDAY CFB KING HIMSELF, Diego Pavia.
Mismatches: Week 4
One of my favorite tables returns to 2024. Should we wait a couple more weeks for more data? Maybe, more data will always make this graph better. You might see some wonky mismatches for the next week two, but I feel fine posting now that we have a couple games under our belt. Basically how you read this is “USF’s offense is one of the worst at generating explosive passes, and now they have to play Miami who is one of the best at stopping explosive passes”. Other mismatches include Penn States passing attack, led by Drew Allar, against a woeful Kent State pass defense.
I don’t have a quantifiable answer on how often the mismatches listed on this table actually lead to lopsided results, but anecdotally I have seen good results. In my opinion its a good way to take an entire slate of games and see where the biggest performances might come from.
All in all, another week of college football ahead of us as we barrel towards the start of spooky season in October.
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