The NIU Huskies Week: CFB Week 2 Advanced Stats & The Week 3 Preview

Looking at the numbers from the past week and the upcoming week!

In the world of college football, September is the appetizer month. You’re just getting back into the swing of things and for the most part you’re starting with a relatively light schedule. A lot of out of conference games, mostly against FCS or lower level opponents. Spreads approach three or even more touchdown favorites/underdogs. For most of the countries top teams, its business as usual. However, every so often, we get ourselves a good ole fashioned upset.

Lets check out some of the numbers of the week!

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Most Exciting Games of Week 2

Entering the season, Georgia and Ohio State were the consensus top 1-2 teams in the country. Coming up right behind them was the Oregon Ducks, but in these first two games of the season they have not been able to flash that much dominance. A 10 point win against FCS Idaho, followed by this matchup against potential G5 playoff team Boise State. The Ducks couldn’t quite contain star Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty, who rushed for 192 yards and 3TDs which was good for 11.1 expected points added. In the end, the Ducks were able to drive down and kick a game winning FG. They have 3 games to get right before their big showdown with Ohio State in about a month.

You’ll notice that Alabama 42-16 win against USF and you might think it was just business as usual, but it was a 1 point game into the FOURTH QUARTER. Alabama exploded for 28 points in the 4th to cover the spread and finish with positive expected points added. Can you spot where the 4th quarter plays are on this chart?

(GameonPaper.com)

Expectations vs. Reality

The biggest winner of beating vegas expectations was the Florida International Panthers, who beat Central Michigan 52-16 despite being 3.5 point underdogs at home. Maybe Vegas forgot about the Pitbull effect!

Clemson’s offense has been under fire since even before Cade Klubnik took over. It has not been anywhere close to what it was during their mini dynasty run in the beginning of the CFB playoff era. Against Appalachian State, the offense showed a rare flash of dominance, averaging 0.35 EPA/Play, good for the 95th percentile of offenses. Cade Klubnik threw for 5 TD’s while running in 2 more, which was good for 30.8 expected points added.

QB Play: Power 5

Along with Cade Klubnik, Conner Weigman was able to bounce back after a rough performance against Notre Dame. Other winners of the week include Kurtis Rourke dismantling Western Illinois, Cam Ward continuing to impress against FAMU, and true freshman DJ Lagway who got the start after Graham Mertz left last week with a concussion.

QB Play: Group of 5

Over on the Group of 5 front, UConn’s Joe Fagnano threw for 17.3 yards per attempt with 5 TDs as they took down Merrimack 63-17. Other Group of 5 strong performers include Louisiana Lafayette’s Ben Wooldridge, and yes folks that is an ARMY QB in the top right. Admittedly, Daily ran for 18 attempts (117 yards) and only threw 4 passes, but one of those 4 passes was a 44 yard TD so heres to the random Army explosive pass we all love to see (Unless you’re playing Army)

Stat of the Week: THE NIU HUSKIES!

Northern Illinois scored the biggest win of the week, upsetting previously #5 ranked Notre Dame IN South Bend. They came into the game 28.5 points underdogs. Since 2019, their upset ranked 4th highest based off the point spread coming into the game.

Diving into the advanced stats, the biggest storyline in this upset was the passing attacks for both schools. For NIU, they were able to efficiently move the ball through the air. This is Ethan Hampton’s first year starting at NIU, but he has been with the program long enough to be considered a veteran QB. For most of the game they grinded it out on the ground, but when they did pass Hampton made solid decisions. The biggest play happened early in the game when Hampton hit star RB Antario Brown for a 83 yard TD, which was good for 7.66 expected points.

For Notre Dame, they need to find some sort of vertical element to their passing game. One of the few times Riley Leonard throw the ball downfield was that 4th quarter interception shown above which set the Huskies up to eventually take the lead and win the game. Without a downfield threat, Notre Dame could be in for a long season.

Week 3 Implied Points

Lets head on over to week 3 and get a peak at the games to come. Tennessee’s offense has been on a tear this season, scoring 69 against FCS Chattanoga and 51 against a tough NC State team. Now they get one of the worst teams in the FBS in Kent State. Expect more of the same for Nico Iamaleava and the Volunteers. There aren’t really a whole lot of marquee matchups this week im not going to lie to you. The most intriguing game, in my opinion, is Boston College taking on Missouri. Missouri is currently a 16.5 point favorite, but that didn’t stop Boston College when they went on the road and upset Florida State as the 16.5 point underdog (I am CRYING as I typed that).

Best QB Matchups Week 3

Thomas Castellanos is the reason this matchup interests me. His dual threat abilities have been on display since he started last season for the Eagles. BC is going to need him and the rest of the offense to keep up with Brady Cook, Luther Burden and the Missouri Tigers offense. Since the start of last season, the Tigers rank 17th in EPA/Play and 25th in average yards per play (6.2) among all 134 FBS teams. Expect some serious fireworks in this game.

While it might not be the most glamorous week on paper, upsets are always lurking in the shadows, and at the end of the day a weekend of CFB is better than a weekend without it!

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