The OH NOrth Carolina Week: CFB Week 4 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 5 Look ahead
Not a banner day for the state of North Carolina
*Apologies for the late upload today*
The regionality of college football is one the most shining aspects of the sport. For many people, being able to brag to your coworker who went to the school 50-100 miles away from your school makes this whole thing worthwhile. The rivalries are intense because its amongst members of your community and not Eagles fans in Philadelphia vs. Cowboys fans in Dallas.
All of that to say the state of North Carolina got absolutely wrecked in college football this week (will look at that more in a second), so I can’t imagine there is too many bragging going on. There was plenty of other action around the nation as well, so let’s start the recap!
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Most Exciting Games Of Week 4
There were a ton of exciting games (although to be honest I did not enjoy Cal FSU nearly as much as the excitement index did) in CFB last week. Michigan and USC are two traditional powerhouses duking it out in their first ever conference matchup between each other. Michigan decided to take the “traditional” part to heart by dialing their offense back to the 1940s and POUNDING THAT ROCK! Alex Orji finished with only 32 passing yards as Michigan defense and good run gamed its way to victory.
It really wouldn’t be a September in college football without an overtime Colorado football thriller:
After giving up a TD with 5 mins left in the game, Shedeur Sanders and the Colorado offense got in field position for the Hail Mary:
What a BALL from Shedeur Sanders and what a catch from LaJohntay Wester. Colorado got the win in overtime to get to 3-1 on the season.
Expectations vs. Reality
The biggest winners according to what they were expected to do was UConn, who entered their game against FAU as one point favorites. They won decisively against the Owls 48-14. Other winners include Pitt and their domination over Youngstown State, and South Alabama continuing to impress, this time against Appalachian State.
Will talk about it in a second, but the biggest losers of the week vs. expectations have to be North Carolina. Per betting lines, they were only supposed to allow 19.25 points. They GAVE UP 70 to James Madison in a soul crushing defeat.
QB Play: Power 5
Your Power 5 QBs of the week include Robby Ashford, Drew Allar, the Maple Missile (Kurtis Rourke) and…… CADE KLUBNIK? Many cast him off during the Georgia game, and I can admittedly say I was one of those folks. Ever since that game, Cade Klubnik has been one of the best QBs in college football. If you take out his week 1 game against Georgia, his 94.9 PFF Grade and his 93.7 PFF Pass Grade both rank first in the entire FBS.
QB Play: Group of 5
Over in the group of 5, ITS SERVICE ACADEMY WEEK BABY!!! Army’s Bryson Daily and Navy’s Blake Horvath continue look impressive this season. We might have ourselves a really good game in December. You might ask yourself “Whats going on with EJ Warner here”. Despite grading well, his per play efficiency took at hit after his pass catchers dropped 5 passes, and he threw 2 INTs that were not charted as turnover worthy plays by PFF (one was tipped by his receiver, the other he was hit just as he threw).
Stat of the Week: The State of North Carolina
Whether you are in the most populated city in Charlotte, the state capital in Raleigh, or Chapel Hill, there was a lot of hurting going around the state of North Carolina. After two quarters of play, North Carolina was down to James Madison 53-21, NC State was down to Clemson 45-7, and Charlotte was down to Indiana 31-14. In terms of EPA and Success Rate allowed, you can see every defense was in the bottom 16th percentile or worst among FBS defenses this season. Simply put, there probably isn’t a lot of bragging going on in North Carolina based offices this week.
Week 5 Implied Points
Here are the implied points for the week. Texas is probably going to dismantle Mississippi State, and our first look at the Georgia Alabama showdown has Georgia beating Alabama 25.5-23. I would be shocked if this game didn’t come down to the final whistle.
Week 5 QB Matchups
There are a ton of quality QB matchups this week. First up is Garrett Nussmeier (this newsletter IS a fan of him) taking on Gio Lopez, who has quietly been one of the best Group of 5 QBs this season. Of course we have to mention Carson Beck and Jalen Milroe, two QBs who could greatly improve their draft stocks if they perform well this week. Drew Allar against the tough, man to man Illinois defense and Luke Altmeyer against a tough Penn State defense? Yes please, sign me up!
Week 5 Mismatches
Here are the biggest mismatches of the week. Michigan has struggled to pass the football this season between Orji and Warren, and now they get a Minnesota defense that has been pretty solid against the pass. Will see if the struggles continue for the Wolverines. A team that hasn’t struggled to pass is the Texas Longhorns, who may have two elite QBs in their room in Ewers and Manning. Expect some long bombs to Isaiah Bond in this matchup.
September is going out with a bang with all of these quality matchups and of course the Georgia Alabama showdown. Hope you all have a good weekend and your teams bring you great joy!
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