The Travis Hunter Week: CFB Week 5 Advanced Stats Recap & Week 6 Look Ahead
A look back and a look ahead as we enter spooky season!
We are officially done with the September slate of college football this season. Its hard to really gauge teams this early into the season because there is more schedule variance than any other time in the year. Nevertheless, games have been played and we are starting to some ideas on how teams are going to play this year (My team, FSU, is not good! I think we can definitively say that). For the final time in September, lets recap some games!
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Most Exciting Games Of Week 5
I feel like this is one of the times where the excitement index misses its objective because HOW IS ALABAMA VS. GEORGIA NOT HERE! Georgia comes back from a 28 point deficit, and the final moments had multiple TD’s/explosive plays. It somehow only earned a 5.7 on the excitement index. My only explanation is that the Georgia comeback took most of the game so most of the game was very little win probability changes until things really started to heat up at the end.
Kentucky is off to an interesting start in SEC play. They were blown out 31-6 against South Carolina, but against Georgia and Ole Miss they finished with a +2 point differential, including this upset win over Ole Miss. Kentucky has forced to play two of the projected top teams in the SEC to play ugly, and this time it was Kentucky coming out on top. Tennessee and Texas, take notes!
Expectations vs. Reality
Here are the expectations based on betting lines and the reality of what happened in the week. The biggest winners of the week are UNLV. Entering the game against Fresno State, they were only 2.5 point favorites and the point total of the game sat at 49.5. They ended up covering the total point total on their own, dismantling Fresno State 59-14. What made this even more impressive was they won despite the controversy surrounding the program. If you hadn’t heard, UNLV’s former staring QB Matthew Sluka chose to sit the remainder of the year and transfer out after a mishap with his NIL deal. Hajj-Malik Williams stepped right in and UNLV did not miss a beat on offense.
The other winners of the week include James Madison, who followed their 70-50 win over UNC with a 63-7 win over Ball State, and Colorado, who came into the game as 12.5 point underdogs but left Orlando with a 48-21 victory over the Citronauts. One of the players on Colorado is the subject of our stat of the week (you’ll never guess who!).
QB Play: Power 5
Our Power 5 QB of the week was Jalen Milroe after his insane performance against the Georgia Bulldogs. Other Power 5 QBs of the week include Kevin Jennings, who handled my Florida State Seminoles, Behren Morton of Texas Tech, and Avery Johnson of Kansas State. Interesting note: the highest graded QB of the week per PFF? Arch Manning.
QB Play: Group of 5
Over in the land of the Group of 5, Blake Horvath continues to shine for the Navy Midshipmen. His 95.8 ESPN QBR is currently the highest among FBS QBs. Other G5 QBs of the week include Alonza Barnett III, Jordan McCloud of Texas State and Hajj-Malik Williams who we talked about earlier.
Stat of the Week: Travis Hunter Is Absurd
I guess this isn’t really a week specific stat, but I think its worth pointing out how absurd Travis Hunter has been playing this season. Not only is he averaging over 120+ snaps per game (which is more than any other player in CFB), but he has graded out as a top 5 power 5 player at two different positions per PFF. Last season, there really wasn’t much to go off for Travis Hunter numbers wise. So far this season, Travis has taken to game to another level. They don’t give out Heismans in September, but this September I think the hardware would go to him.
To make this a little more week specific, look at this read and react ability followed by elite closing speed to secure the INT against KJ Jefferson. Hunter has been playing like a top 5 player at both positions, which continues to add to the discourse on what his position will be at the next level.
Week 6 Implied Points
Here are the week 6 implied points based on betting lines. Ashton Jeanty and the Boise State Broncos are expected to light up the scoreboard against Utah State. If you’re looking for close matchups, head on over to the SEC and take in an intriguing Missouri vs. Texas A&M contest. As it stands, Texas A&M is a 1.5 point favorite.
Week 6 QB Matchups
This week, our fan favorite and MR NEW MEXICO Diego Pavia has the ultimate test of taking on Jalen Milroe and an Alabama team coming off a season defining win against Georgia. Other interesting QB matchups include Kevin Jennings and Tyler Shough in an “not headliner teams but still a fun matchup potential” ACC matchup, and Nico Iamaleava and Taylen Green in an “Hasn’t statistically been the best but has the potential for fireworks on every play” matchup.
Week 6 Mismatches
Finally, the biggest mismatches of the week according to EPA metrics. South Alabama’s rushing attack, led by Fluff Bothwell, should be able to run all over this Arkansas State defense. Speaking of which, we might see another unbelievable rushing performance by Ashton Jeanty against the Utah State run defense. If you enjoy a good run game, there might be some really good games for you this week.
September is a thing of the past, and we are officially in October. Spooky season in real life can sometimes drip into the CFB world. As teams get into a thicker part of their schedule, will get some more answers on which teams are treats this year, and which teams tricked us into thinking they were good.
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