The Tyler Warren Week: CFB Week 7 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 8 Look Ahead
The do it all Tight End.... did it all!
It is truly a special thing when a highly anticipated week of college football delivers. From the Red River Rivalry to Oregon Ohio State, there were so many fun matchups last weekend. The bad news? That is all behind us. The good news? This week of college football may just match the energy of last week. Let’s dive into some numbers!
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Most Exciting Games Of Week 7
You know the week was a great one when some of the most anticipated matchups appear on the most exciting games of the week list. The night time slate especially delivered, with some games coming down to the wire at nearly the exact same time in real time.
Im very high on LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier, but I will admit he got off to a rocky start in this game. However, when it mattered most at the end of the game, Nussmeier led his team down the field and threw a pair of TD passes (adding up to 10.27 expected points for LSU) to get the game into OT. In OT, the Tigers defense was able to shut down Jaxon Dart and the high powered Ole Miss offense, and LSU was able to kick its way to victory.
At nearly the exact same time, Ohio State and Oregon was nearing its thrilling end. This game went back and forth the entire time, as shown in the win probability spikes throughout out the first three quarters. At the end of the game, Jeremiah Smith was called for an offensive pass interference that knocked them out of FG range and the Buckeyes were not able to recover. Thanks to GameonPaper.com, we can see that cost the Buckeyes 52.9% win probability! The other late game big play? Oregon intentionally puts 12 players on defense in order to waste time and assure them not giving up a big play that puts Ohio State back in FG range.
Expectations vs. Reality
When looking at expectations via betting lines, the biggest winners (and losers) are Illinois and Purdue. Before the game, the betting line was Illinois by 21.5 points, and the over under point total was 46.5. So basically, Illinois was expected to blow out Purdue with little resistance from the Boilermakers offense. However, if you play Purdue and you’re a ranked team, expect some chaos. Both teams ended up going over the entire game point total, and in the end Illinois just narrowly outlasted Purdue 50-49.
QB Play: Power 5
The Power 5 QBs of the week start with Dillion Gabriel, who threw for 341 yards and 2 TD’s along with a rushing TD in their massive top 3 win against Ohio State. NOTRE DAME FANS, WE HAVE A RILEY LEONARD TOP RIGHT GRAPH!! You can say whatever you want about Stanford, but Riley Leonard had one of his best games in an Irish uniform this past weekend. As mentioned above, Ryan Browne and Luke Altmeyer both had days in that unexpected offensive shootout.
QB Play: Group of 5
Over in the Group of 5 world, Army’s Bryson Daily continues to dominant on the ground and through the air. Other top performers include Jordan McCloud of Texas State (who has been quietly effective this year) and Nevada’s Brendon Lewis.
Stat of the Week: Tyler Warren DOES IT ALL
Position versatility is a big thing in modern football. Having a TE who can also sub in as a FB, line up out wide, or idk even THROW TD PASSES is a massive advantage for an offense. Nobody embodies that versatility more than Penn State’s Tyler Warren. Over his career, Warren has 100+ snaps lined up in line, in the slot, out wide, and as a FB in the backfield.
In their win against USC, Warren had a career day as a receiver, including catching a TD while LINED UP AS CENTER SNAPPING THE BALL! His 17 receptions were the most by a FBS TE in the CFB playoff era. If you are a fan of quirkiness and versatility, you might want to throw on the Penn State offense when you can.
Week 8 Implied Points
Its hard to top weeks like last week, but week 8 is certainly going to give last week a run for its money. Texas vs. Georgia, Alabama vs. Tennessee, Miami vs. Louisville. I could go on but you get the point: lot of fun conference matchups this week. Also, your eyes are not deceiving you with that New Mexico-Utah State matchup: the over under point total opened up at 78.5 points!
Week 8 QB Matchups
Look at this buffet of interesting QB matchups we have for ourselves this week. At the top is an ACC showdown with Cam Ward and Tyler Shough. Carson Beck and Quinn Ewers will both be looking to improve their draft stocks against a top ranked opponent. Dylan Raiola, the kid, taking on the veteran Maple Missile in Kurtis Rourke. We should be in for some fun QB showdowns this week.
Week 8 Mismatches
Finally, we have our mismatches of the week via EPA metrics. MR NEW MEXCIO Diego Pavia has battled through Alabama and Kentucky, and now he gets a little welcome sign of relief against a weaker Ball State pass defense. UNLV’s Go-Go offense is Go-going to have an opportunity to deliver some explosives on the ground against an Oregon State defense prone to giving them up.
Two weeks in a row of some great college football matchups. These are the weeks we yearn for in the offseason, savor them while you can!
Lily Donation Fund
I mentioned this the other day, but the other week turned our lives upside down for a moment as our little cat was sick. After some extensive care and a really rough surgery, she has been recovering well and back to being our tubby little girl.
I hate that I have to do this but this whole ordeal was rough financially for us. If you enjoy the articles and wish to help (which you 10000% do not have to if you do not want to) I left the link to the GoFundMe up above.
If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!
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