The Week of the BULLS: CFB Week 3 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 3 Look Ahead
Is South Florida the leader in the clubhouse for the Group of 5 spot?
September is a time when we figure out whether our preseason priors were good, or do we need to do a little recalibration. For the most part, the top teams of CFB are still jockeying to take a leadership position heading into October. However, over on the Group of 5 front, one team has emerged as a possible leader into that coveted 5th automatic CFB Playoff bid. We will talk about them in today’s recap plus a look ahead into the next week of college football. Let’s do it!
During the season if you would like to see an advanced box score of a certain game, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com) or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
Most Exciting Games Of Week 2
Here are the most exciting games of the week according to swings in win probability. Me personally, I was glued to my screen to watch Aiden Chiles, Nick Marsh and the Michigan State Spartans outlast Boston College in double overtime.
Expectations vs. Reality
Blowouts were a common theme (and are a common theme in September) this week of college football. Alabama, Florida State, Nebraska and Washington all beat their already high Vegas expectations by winning by 60+ points. On the flip side, while Georgia beat Austin Peay 28-6, they were expected to win by over 45+ points. Their rival, Florida, was in a similar boat but were not as fortunate to pull out the victory.
QB Play: Power 4
Here is how the power 4 QBs performed this week. Ty Simpson, albeit against Louisiana Monroe, bounced back after a tough outing against the Seminoles. Noah Fifita continues to look like his old self, while Diego Pavia and Demond Williams continue to chug along as hyper efficient QB machines.
QB Play: Group of 5
The group of 5 saw a little bit of a build up in the top right quadrant. Group of 5 QBs of the week include Maddux Madsen, who bounced back after a tough opener against USF, Brendon Lewis, and Caden Veltkamp among others. QBs like Byrum Brown, EJ Warner and Broc Lowry were efficient on a down by down basis, but according to the film their individual performances were the best, and their supporting cast did most of the work with things like yards after the catch.
Stat of the Week: USF holding opponents way under expectations
Heading into the season, everyone assumed South Florida would be looking at some early season losses with Boise State, Florida and Miami on the schedule. Well, after two weeks, the Bulls have shocked the nation upsetting the preseason Group of 5 leader in Boise State, and the Florida Gators in Gainesville.
According to Vegas, the Bulls were supposed to give up 36 points to the Broncos, and another 38.5 to the Gators. Their defense responded by only giving up 7 to Boise State and 16 to Florida. Those 56 points they did not allow was the most points allowed under the sportsbooks expectations since the 2015 season. Regardless of what happens this week against Miami, USF has shown they will be one of the more dangerous teams in the American conference.
Week 3 Implied Points
Looking ahead to week 3, we can see Indiana is expected to handle in state Indiana State, while Syracuse is expected to do the same against Colgate. In the two big showdowns on the slate, Notre Dame opens as a 6.5 point favorite against Texas A&M, while Georgia is slightly favored against Tennesse (3.5 points).
Week 3 QB Matchups
I said it last week, but it is worth mentioning this graph will continue to get better as the season goes on and we get more data under our belt. Personally, I want to see Byrum Brown and Carson Beck doing their thing down in Miami Gardens. While it might not be a contest for the whole game, I will be interested to see what Parker Navarro can do against a vaunted Ohio State defense.
Hope you all enjoy the games this weekend!
Buy Me A Coffee!
As long as I do this newsletter I will keep it free so that as many people as possible can enjoy and join us on our CFB data adventure. However, if you did want to show additional support the newsletter (which you 100% do not have to!) you can always buy me a coffee here!
If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!
If you want to see more charts and one off analysis, follow my twitter page, CFBNumbers