Using Our New Win Total Tool On 8 Projected Top Teams

Some napkin math win totals for some of the top teams!

Hello everyone! I hope you had a fantastic Memorial Day weekend. Before we get out our sunscreen and pool floaties for the summer season, I wanted to share with you a tool that I created that I think will help you visualize your teams upcoming 2025 season. Im putting YOU in the drivers seat of your teams (or any team you want) win total:

Instead of looking at a schedule and assigning a binary win/loss to each opponent, you will be assigning a percent chance to win that game for each team on the schedule. If you add those numbers up, you get a more finely tuned win total. You may even surprise yourself at what you arrive at if you do it this way vs. the binary win/loss way.

Let’s put this into use by looking at the top 8 teams based on their sportsbook odds to win the national championship. We will do some napkin math projected win totals for each team, and then compare that to the win totals the sportsbook have set. Comparing our win totals to the sportsbook totals will give us an idea of which teams we are high on vs. which teams we may be more skeptical on than the betting market.

Top 8 Teams In Odds To Win The Championship

According to Draftkings Sportsbook, defending champion Ohio State has the best odds to win the title in 2025, followed by Texas and Georgia. In this top 8 Alabama, LSU and Michigan are the only teams that did not appear in the CFB Playoffs last season. These are the teams we will use to test out our new win totals tool. Let’s get going!

Number 1: Ohio State

Going through Ohio States schedule, I have them at 10.21 wins. Ohio State has to break in a new QB, while also losing a pair of highly drafted RBs in Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. That being said, Jeremiah Smith is one of, if not the best WR in CFB, and Carnell Tate is no joke as the number 2 option. Presumed starter Julian Sayin has a lightning quick release and is deadly accurate. I have them as a slight favorite over Texas in the opener. While I have them as the favorite in the final game, we all know how that has gone in the past couple of seasons.

Number 2: Texas

According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s returning production, Texas returns only 29% of its offensive returning production, which ranks 126th out of 136 FBS teams. The biggest question of course is what will Arch Manning look like as the full time starter for the Longhorns. Their top ranked defense doesn’t lose as much, so that unit should still be among the best in the nation. Offensively, a healthy CJ Baxter + Wisner could be an elite RB duo, but the question is can Texas retool their OL after losing 3 OL to the NFL draft. While I have zero doubts that HC Steve Sarkisian will put out a fantastic offensive scheme, they have to go on the road to Ohio State and Georgia. Also Oklahoma should be a vastly improved team on offense. Texas will have to earn every bit of their playoff berth this season.

Number 3: Georgia

Georgia ranks 108th in returning production on offense and 93rd on defense. While they may be losing a lot on both sides of the ball, the Kirby recruiting train has not stopped and their roster should be one of the top 5 most talented in the nation. Their out of conference schedule is extremely weak, so it will come down to SEC play for the Bulldogs.

As we saw before I have Georgia as a slight favorite over Texas. I have them as a slightly bigger favorite against Alabama/Ole Miss and, despite it being on the road, I have them as a larger favorite against Tennessee. The biggest question is what does Gunnar Stockton look like as the full time starter, and can they get everything out of star USC transfer WR Zachariah Branch.

Number 4: Penn State

Getting QB Drew Allar back along with RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen gives Penn State one of the best returning backfields in the nation. The issue I see is Tyler Warrens departure means a ton of question marks for Allar’s pass catchers. If transfers Kyron Hudson and Devonte Ross become hits, this offense could take another step forward that might put them over the top.

Schedule wise, Oregon and Ohio State are the big time “can Penn State win the big one” games. As you can see, im not as optimistic that they do. I might be a little high on their chances against Iowa on the road, but that happens you’re doing some quick napkin math wins. The final thing I wanted to point out was week 11 to 13 stretch includes three teams (Indiana/Mich State/Nebraska) that all have potentials to break out (or an Indiana’s case, repeat their success from last year). If Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Michigan States Aidan Chiles or Nebraskas Dylan Railoa take a massive leap forward, that could spell some trouble for the Nittany Lions.

Number 5: Oregon

Im not going to lie, Montana State week 1 has me a little queasy. I don’t think they will lose, but breaking in a new QB against a FCS powerhouse might lead to some uncomfortable moments. Oregon ranks 109th in offensive returning production and 101st in defensive returning production, so they need to some reloading. QB Dante Moore didn’t work out at UCLA, but he occasionally flashed that 5 star talent, and he will be in a much better system with a much better OL, spearheaded by LT Isaiah World.

Outside of their bout against Penn State on the road, the Ducks don’t have too many big tests on their schedule. Assuming Dante Moore takes the next step forward, the Ducks should finish with double digit wins.

Number 6: Alabama

Alabama ranks 35th in returning production, the biggest question is who will be the signal caller for the Crimson Tide week 1 in Tallahassee. Will it be Ty Simpson finally getting his shot? Or will it be Austin Mack, who came from Washington with Kalen DeBoer. Or will highly touted true freshman Keelon Russell shock everyone and start day 1? Outside of the QB battle, everything seems to be in a similar spot as the 2024 roster.

We know about the week 5 date with Georgia, so I want to focus on some of the other SEC matchups. LSU/South Carolina/Oklahoma/Missouri/Tennessee/Auburn are all teams Alabama should be favored against, and I gave them some favorable odds against them, but there is a good chance they trip up against one or more of those teams. Alabama fans still aren’t use to the regular season stumbles, so will see what happens if they do indeed take that stumble. I didn’t even include Vanderbilt on that list!

Number 7: Notre Dame

The 2024 runners up will have a tough stretch to start their 2025 campaign. Not the best thing in the world to see if you are breaking in a new QB, but Notre Dame ranks 23rd in returning production on defense so their top ranked crew should be able to keep the team afloat while CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey find their footing as the new QB for the Fighting Irish. Incoming transfer WR Malachai Fields could create a dynamic WR duo between him and Jaden Greathouse, and of course don’t forget about slot WR Jordan Faison. Losing DC Al Golden is a blow to the defensive side of the ball, but if Chris Ash can step in and keep the unit going they should remain in the top 15 of defensive units.

Number 8: Clemson

No team returns more production than the Clemson Tigers in 2025. QB Cade Klubnik took a massive step forward in the back half of the 2024 season, and a team that was left for dead rebounded and took home the ACC Championship + a berth in the CFB Playoffs. Expectations are through the roof in Clemson, South Carolina.

Clemson’s toughest opponents are LSU, SMU and rival South Carolina. All in all….. not really a gauntlet in sight on this schedule, which is part of the reasons there are sky high expectations for this team. DL TJ Parker and Peter Woods make for one of the best DL duo in the nation. This team is bursting with talent, and if Klubnik can take one more step forward, they may be the team to beat in CFB.

Wrapping It All Up

Now that we have all of our napkin math win totals, we can compare the results to the current consensus win totals based on sportsbooks (adjusted for odds). As you can see, I was a little low on Texas, Georiga and Penn State while I was much higher on Clemson. I absolutely nailed Alabama on the nose, im pretty proud about that one!

This was a fun little exercise you can do with the win totals shiny app. Using percentages instead of the binary win/loss gives you a little more detail to your win predictions, while also giving you a nice little table that can show where the tough or easy stretches are for a teams schedule. Hopefully you enjoy it as much I do!

Lily Donation Fund

In October our lives upside down for a moment as our little cat was sick. After some extensive care and a really rough surgery, she has been recovering well and back to being our tubby little girl.

I hate that I have to do this but this whole ordeal was rough financially for us. If you enjoy the articles and wish to help (which you 10000% do not have to if you do not want to) I left the link to the GoFundMe up above.

If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!

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