College Football Analytics: Championship Week Recap

Recapping the numbers from championship weekend

Championship weekend has come and gone. Alabama may have won the SEC again, but the rest of the conferences saw some unfamiliar winners, which is always a beautiful sight to see in this sport. There was plenty of drama this week, including one team coming within literal inches of the College Football Playoff. Without further ado, here are some numbers on the weekend.

*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com)or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.

Also, I use Expected Points Added rather frequently in these recaps. If you need help digesting the decimals, I wrote about how to make it easier to read EPA/Play numbers.

Pac 12 Championship: Utah 38 - Oregon 10

A couple weeks ago these teams met and we saw a very similar result. Turns out Utah was just too strong for Oregon, and they are the Pac 12 Champions for the first time in program history. Utah gave Oregon QB Anthony Brown fits all day long, holding him to a 7.7 ESPN QBR, the worst number on the weekend. Utah will head to the grand daddy of them all, the Rose Bowl. For Oregon, they had back to the drawing board. OC Joe Morehead has already agreed to become the HC at Akron, while Head Coach Mario Cristobal may be on his way to Miami.

CUSA Championship: UTSA 49 - WKU 41

We’re meeping in Conference USA! The Roadrunners of UTSA win the Conference USA Championship game in a shoutout against Western Kentucky. If you enjoy high octane offenses, this was the game for you. Western Kentucky fell behind in this game, but when you run the air raid with a QB like Bailey Zappe, you’re never too far behind. Roadrunner QB Frank Harris had the second best performance this weekend with a ESPN QBR of 94.9, while Zappe finished with a respectable QBR of 86.2.

Big 12 Championship: Baylor 21 - Oklahoma State 16

The Baylor Bears win their 3rd Big 12 title in school history in an exciting game against College Football Playoff hopeful Oklahoma State. The Cowboys came within literal inches of scoring with 30 seconds left to take the lead. Ultimately the Baylor defense stopped them, which was a theme for the entire game. The Bears held Oklahoma State to a 36.8% success rate, and forced over 21 expected points worth of turnovers.

Mike Gundy gave up far too much win probability in 4th down punts and field goals to win this game. If he were more aggressive, it may not have come down to one of the last snaps in the game. Ultimately, the Cowboys will come up brutally short of the playoffs.

MAC Championship: NIU 41 - Kent State 23

Northern Illinois was 0-6 in 2020, and came into this game with a -33 point differential. This was a rollercoaster of a season for the Huskies, and it culminated in a MAC championship. NIU avenged a previous regular season loss to Kent State, and were able to stifle the high powered Kent State offense. NIU QB Rocky Lombardi and the Husky passing attack were dominant this game, averaging 0.525 EPA/Pass. Congrats to Northern Illinois!

Sun Belt Championship: Louisiana 24 - Appalachian State 16

The Fun Belt ended the season in typical fun belt fashion: an extremely close matchup of good football teams. Louisiana squeaked away with the Sun Belt Championship, sending Head Coach Billy Napier off with a victory as he makes his way to Gainesville. It was a little bit of a defensive battle between the two teams, but ultimately Louisiana was able to pull the victory.

SEC Championship: Alabama 41 - Georgia 24

Georgia came in as the favorite, but Nick Saban said not so fast. The better, more explosive offense prevailed in this matchup as the Crimson Tide win another SEC Championship. Bama QB Bryce Young delivered his signature Heisman moment, leading the weekend with a 98 ESPN QBR.

Georgia is just not built to come back from bigger deficits. QB Stetson Bennett has been great as a game manager for the Dawgs, but ultimately couldn’t dig Georgia out of a second half deficit. Both teams will be headed to the College Football Playoff, with a rematch in the national championship as the most likely outcome.

AAC Championship: Cincinnati 35 - Houston 20

Teams like Utah, Boise State, and UCF all etched at the glass ceiling, and now Cincinnati has shattered the ceiling. The Bearcats win the AAC championship and become the first Group of 5 team to make the College Football Playoff and have a legitimate shot at the national championship. This game was the final test for the Bearcats, as Houston was riding an 11 game winning streak coming into this contest. Against this stifling Cougar defense, Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder and the Bearcat offense had a banner day, averaging 0.238 EPA/Play and keeping a clean sheet on the turnover chart. Celebrate this weekend Cincinnati: you got Alabama in one month.

B1G Championship: Michigan 42 - Iowa 3

No “Michiganing” here ladies and gentlemen. The Wolverines are a legit title contender heading to the College Football Playoff after winning the Big Ten Championship against Iowa. The Hawkeyes just did not have the offensive firepower to keep up with Michigan. The Wolverines have been very dominant this season, winning all games in the post game win expectancy battle. They draw Georgia in the Playoff semifinal, which should be a very good matchup and an exciting game on New Year’s Eve.

Mountain West Championship: Utah State 46 - San Diego State 13

The first year of the Blake Anderson era at Utah State ends in a conference championship. The Aggies batter the San Diego State Aztecs to win the Mountain West Championship. San Diego State has relied on their defense and all world punter to keep football games close, but this ultimately failed in the championship game. Aggie QB Logan Bonner had a stellar game, finishing 3rd this week in QBR with a 93.0.

ACC Championship: Pittsburgh 45 - Wake Forest 21

The final championship game of the week was the expected offensive slugfest ACC championship. Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Panthers proved to be the stronger team, and are the ACC Champions. The game started off hot, with 35 points coming in the first quarter alone. The game slowed down after that, and ultimately turnovers proved to be the demise of the Demon Deacons. Pittsburgh will head to a New Year’s Six Bowl as a conference champion, and Kenny Pickett could very well be headed to New York as a Heisman finalist.

QB Shoutout

In terms of numbers, Blake Shapen’s performance wasn’t particularly stellar. However, he was the backup QB and shouldn’t be expected to come in and put up the same numbers as the starter Gerry Bohanan. Since Bohanan’s injury two weeks ago, Shapen has stepped in and provided enough production for Baylor to get into and win the Big 12 championship. Hats off to Shapen for saving the Bears season!

QB Performances This Week

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